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Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 7

Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 7

by Matt Commins | Posted on Saturday, May 10th, 2014
| 2257 baseball fanatics read this article

These fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings were pulled Friday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The data is up to date as of Thursday night.

Top starters

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

1

Adam Wainwright

STL

CHC, ATL

2.02

23.3%

6.3%

2

Cliff Lee

PHI

LAA, CIN

3.65

22.4%

3.1%

3

Felix Hernandez

SEA

TB, @MIN

2.73

24.2%

5.5%

4

David Price

TB

@SEA, @LAA

4.53

25.8%

2.7%

5

James Shields

KC

COL, BAL

2.70

21.7%

5.4%

6

Jordan Zimmermann

WSH

@ARI, NYM

2.92

24.4%

5.1%

7

Clayton Kershaw

LAD

@ARI

0.66

29.1%

1.8%

8

Yu Darvish

TEX

@HOU

2.86

26.3%

6.9%

9

Jose Fernandez

MIA

@LAD

1.73

35.7%

6.6%

10

Max Scherzer

DET

@BOS

1.72

33.0%

6.6%

11

Madison Bumgarner

SF

ATL

3.17

25.3%

7.7%

12

Zack Greinke

LAD

@ARI

2.35

30.1%

4.5%

13

Stephen Strasburg

WSH

@ARI

3.42

31.4%

7.4%

14

Masahiro Tanaka

NYY

@NYM

2.53

30.4%

3.6%

15

Michael Wacha

STL

CHC

2.55

28.1%

7.3%

16

Johnny Cueto

CIN

SD

1.31

29.3%

7.3%

17

Homer Bailey

CIN

@PHI

5.36

20.9%

7.7%

18

Yordano Ventura

KC

BAL

2.00

28.1%

7.5%

19

Matt Cain

SF

MIA

4.35

19.1%

7.6%

20

Julio Teheran

ATL

@SF

1.80

17.5%

4.8%

21

Cole Hamels

PHI

CIN

7.01

18.2%

9.1%

22

Jeff Samardzija

CHC

@STL

1.62

19.0%

7.5%

23

Sonny Gray

OAK

@CLE

1.91

20.8%

8.3%

24

Justin Verlander

DET

@BAL

2.68

19.1%

9.5%

25

Ervin Santana

ATL

@STL

2.40

27.3%

6.1%

26

Gio Gonzalez

WSH

NYM

2.91

25.7%

8.6%

Additional information: Do not be fooled by Cliff Lee’s 3.64 ERA. He has pitched extremely well this season. If you remove his first disaster outing, he has a 2.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 25 percent strikeout rate and three percent walk rate. Cole Hamels has struggled since coming off the DL, but he has started slowly in three of the past five seasons. For example, he’s had ERAs above five and WHIP’s above 1.30 in his first four starts of the year. Hamels is going to figure it out. Homer Bailey is the biggest buy-low candidate for starting pitchers. He’s striking out batters 21 percent of the time and the quality of stuff is still there. The .372 BABIP and 18 percent HR/FB rate are going to regress. I would trade for him immediately.

Backend starters

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

27

Hisashi Iwakuma

SEA

TB

2.45

19.2%

1.9%

28

Mike Minor

ATL

@SF

6.99

20.4%

4.1%

29

Gerrit Cole

PIT

@MIL, @NYY

3.64

20.0%

6.7%

30

Jesse Chavez

OAK

CWS, @CLE

2.47

25.0%

5.7%

31

Chris Tillman

BAL

@KC

3.79

19.9%

7.5%

32

Nathan Eovaldi

MIA

@SF

2.78

25.1%

3.4%

33

A.J. Burnett

PHI

LAA

2.90

18.5%

10.0%

34

Alfredo Simon

CIN

SD

1.99

13.8%

7.5%

35

Jon Lester

BOS

DET

2.59

30.1%

5.2%

36

Garrett Richards

LAA

@PHI

2.84

25.8%

11.6%

37

Wily Peralta

MIL

PIT

2.17

18.4%

4.7%

38

Dan Haren

LAD

MIA, @ARI

2.68

19.5%

4.9%

39

Hiroki Kuroda

NYY

NYM, PIT

4.43

18.3%

3.9%

40

Scott Kazmir

OAK

@CLE

2.64

21.2%

5.0%

41

Lance Lynn

STL

CHC

3.51

25.4%

8.5%

42

Tyson Ross

SD

@CIN

3.30

19.9%

8.6%

43

Doug Fister

WSH

@ARI

44

Ian Kennedy

SD

@CIN

3.12

28.3%

5.6%

45

Corey Kluber

CLE

@TOR

3.60

24.5%

6.1%

46

Drew Hutchison

TOR

@TEX

4.17

25.6%

6.4%

47

Tim Hudson

SF

MIA

1.99

17.8%

1.5%

48

Kyle Lohse

MIL

@CHC

2.72

22.0%

6.3%

Additional information: The Giants only have one legitimate left-handed power hitter, which bodes well for Nate Eovaldi. Lefties have a .804 OPS against him this year and .777 for his career. Eovaldi cannot get lefties out, but is extremely dominant against righties. He’s a must-start. Except for one start Jon Lester has pitched great, but now he faces a potent Tigers lineup that has the third highest wOBA against lefties this year. Before 2014, Ian Kennedy was a fly-ball pitcher who was home-run prone, but this year his ground-ball and fly-ball rates have flipped; with a 48 percent ground-ball rate, and his ability to miss bats makes me more confident in starting him.

Spot starters

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

49

C.J. Wilson

LAA

@TOR, TB

3.21

24.2%

8.4%

50

Henderson Alvarez

MIA

@SF

2.62

15.7%

5.9%

51

Jason Hammel

CHC

@STL

2.43

21.2%

6.0%

52

Jose Quintana

CWS

@HOU

3.56

20.0%

6.9%

53

Dillon Gee

NYM

NYY

2.51

17.4%

7.6%

54

Jered Weaver

LAA

TB

3.48

19.7%

7.3%

55

Clay Buchholz

BOS

@MIN

5.63

16.2%

6.1%

56

Andrew Cashner

SD

@CIN, @COL

2.86

19.2%

7.5%

57

Jon Niese

NYM

@WSH

1.81

19.4%

5.8%

58

Chris Archer

TB

@LAA

4.91

19.8%

6.4%

59

Justin Masterson

CLE

@TOR

3.86

22.2%

9.3%

60

John Lackey

BOS

DET

3.72

22.5%

5.8%

61

Travis Wood

CHC

@STL, MIL

4.75

21.4%

6.4%

62

Marco Estrada

MIL

PIT, @CHC

3.53

22.4%

7.1%

63

Matt Garza

MIL

@CHC

4.93

18.9%

7.6%

64

Martin Perez

TEX

TOR

3.58

16.8%

8.2%

65

Dallas Keuchel

HOU

TEX

3.68

22.1%

6.1%

66

Drew Smyly

DET

@BAL

2.97

21.9%

8.6%

67

Danny Duffy

KC

COL

1.97

22.1%

13.0%

68

Matt Harrison

TEX

@HOU

2.87

12.5%

12.5%

69

Tyler Skaggs

LAA

TB

4.54

15.4%

7.7%

70

Mike Leake

CIN

SD, @PHI

3.40

14.6%

5.0%

71

Yovani Gallardo

MIL

PIT

2.47

14.4%

6.1%

72

Josh Beckett

LAD

MIA

2.80

23.9%

8.5%

73

Shelby Miller

STL

ATL

3.21

18.2%

13.5%

74

Francisco Liriano

PIT

@MIL

4.54

22.4%

10.3%

Additional information: I am buying Henderson Alvarez. His strikeout rate increased two percentage points and his walk rate is down nearly one percentage point. He pitches in a pitcher friendly home ballpark and is a ground-ball pitcher with an adequate defensive infield. He’ll likely finish the year with a 3.30-3.40 ERA and is a good stream option in leagues as shallow as 12-team mixed leagues. Jon Niese obviously will not continue to have a sub-2.00 ERA, but I love him as a stream option when he’s at home. Since 2011, Niese has a 4.15 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, .323 BABIP, 12% HR/FB on the road versus a 3.25 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .298, 8.8% HR/FB at home. Matt Harrison’s command has been loose in all three of his starts, but the movement on the sinker is back. If you’re looking for a win, he provides one of the best chances.

Proceed with caution

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

75

R.A. Dickey

TOR

CLE, @TEX

4.91

19.3%

11.8%

76

David Phelps

NYY

PIT

3.18

25.7%

10.8%

77

Jenrry Mejia

NYM

NYY

5.23

23.3%

11.6%

78

Zack Wheeler

NYM

@NYY, @WSH

4.35

22.9%

10.6%

79

Wade Miley

ARI

LAD

5.14

19.5%

8.8%

80

Jake Peavy

BOS

@MIN

3.09

21.6%

13.5%

81

Scott Feldman

HOU

TEX

1.69

8.6%

8.6%

82

Brett Oberholtzer

HOU

TEX, CWS

5.68

18.0%

6.4%

83

CC Sabathia

NYY

@NYM

5.75

24.0%

4.9%

84

Tom Koehler

MIA

@LAD, @SF

1.99

16.1%

9.4%

85

Zach McAllister

CLE

OAK

3.17

21.7%

7.8%

86

Vidal Nuno

NYY

NYM, PIT

5.47

18.7%

10.3%

Additional information: Four of Tom Koehler’s seven starts have come against the Mets, Padres and Braves. Those teams are in the bottom five in the majors in wOBA. Combine that with a .198 BABIP, 9.4 percent walk rate and 6.8 HR/FB tells me regression is coming soon. R.A. Dickey has been wildly inconsistent, has been walking too many batters and has one of the worst bullpens in the majors. CC Sabathia has looked bad for most of the year, but he faces a bad lineup in a pitcher friendly ballpark without the DH.

Avoid

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

87

Miguel Gonzalez

BAL

@KC

5.28

20.3%

8.7%

88

Rick Porcello

DET

@BAL, @BOS

3.49

18.2%

4.1%

89

Danny Salazar

CLE

@TOR, OAK

5.64

26.8%

9.1%

90

Mark Buehrle

TOR

LAA, @TEX

1.91

15.3%

6.3%

91

Jake Arrieta

CHC

@STL, MIL

2.90

18.6%

7.0%

92

Tyler Lyons

STL

CHC, ATL

3.43

24.7%

7.1%

93

Brandon McCarthy

ARI

WSH

4.67

21.3%

5.3%

94

Colby Lewis

TEX

@HOU, TOR

6.12

17.8%

4.2%

95

Chris Young

SEA

@MIN

3.03

12.2%

13.0%

96

Ricky Nolasco

MIN

BOS, SEA

5.64

14.4%

5.6%

97

Robbie Ray

DET

@BOS

1.70

22.7%

4.5%

98

Tim Lincecum

SF

ATL, MIA

5.55

21.3%

6.7%

99

Bartolo Colon

NYM

@NYY, @WSH

5.35

17.8%

2.6%

100

Aaron Harang

ATL

@STL

2.98

24.6%

8.6%

101

Ryan Vogelsong

SF

ATL, MIA

3.92

15.9%

10.2%

Additional information: In his last three starts Ryan Vogelsong has a 0.89 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP. However, I’m not buying. He has a .218 BABIP and a 10.4 percent walk rate. What’s most concerning is he’s not holding his velocity; not only is it dropping its dropping precipitously after the third inning. He gets the Braves and Marlins at home. The Braves can’t hit and the Marlins strangely can’t hit on the road. In weekly leagues, he’s an extremely tempting stream play, but if you do you’re going to get burned. Tim Lincecum has the same matchups as Vogelsong, and like Vogelsong, Lincecum should not be used. His velocity is still down and he’s throwing his fastball up in the zone at the highest percentage since 2008 (45.6 percent). Danny Salazar will flash ace-level performance in one inning and in the next will allow a lot of hard contact. One reason why he is allowing so much hard contact is he is throwing fastball up in the zone, and in fact he’s been up in the zone 55% of the time, which is seven percentage points higher than last year. For the year, hitters are hitting .351 on fastballs up in the zone. With starts at the Blue Jays and home to the Athletics, I’m finding other options. Roenis Elias has a nice 3.27 ERA, but the 1.31 WHIP and 11.1 percent walk rate indicate he’s been lucky. This week he faces the Twins who have the highest walk rate in the majors. Runners are going to be on base a lot and he’s going to be flirting with danger the whole game.

Post By Matt Commins (51 Posts)

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