The legend of Evan Gattis continues to grow. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

I know y’all have missed me. I sat down to write an article three times, but I’m a little gun shy. My last two articles followed first-game wins against the San Francisco Giants and the Arizona Diamondbacks before the Atlanta Braves went on to lose both series. I laugh publicly about superstitions, but needless to say, I’m worried. I’m serious. I once made my mom leave my house during a particularly important late-season game. Because she was bad luck that year, not because we don’t get along. It’s okay, though, I waved my lucky polar bear’s foot over her a few times and un-hexed her.

Now, before we go any further, we need to talk Gattis – Evan Gattis, who apparently is the best bench tool a manager can ask for. After another outing for Kris Medlen, in which he got little to no run support, it looked like the Atlanta Braves were going to sink against the struggling L.A. Dodgers. Until Evan Gattis came in to pinch hit in the eighth and blasted a ball into the stands, just before Andrelton Simmons did the same. Evan Gattis’ first grand slam of the year came three days later against the Minnesota Twins, sealing the sweep of the homestand.

Last year, I felt like Martin Prado was the guy the Braves needed at the plate when they had to get just one more run. His situational hitting was near perfect — he could drop a single just off the grass or split the gap; whatever was needed to grab the lead. Gattis has a different approach. While manager Fredi Gonzalez goes over statistics and possibilities with bench manager Carlos Tosca, Evan Gattis walks up and says “Hey, skip. Let me go in there and just hit a home run.” Gonzalez gives a little look to Tosca before replying “Evan, it’s not that easy. We have pages of statistics here to decide on the best guy for the job.” Gattis just says, “Yeah, it is.”

Evan uses Gattistics (patent pending), which consists of one easy formula. Gattis + ball – (any pitcher in the game)/(any other statistic) = Home Run.

But it doesn’t end there! During Friday night’s total washout in Flushing (Flush-out?), Evan Gattis came in to pinch-hit with the bases loaded and the game tied at three. He laced a 1-2 breaking ball back through the box and put the Braves up by two. It also made him 4-for-7 as a pinch-hitter with three home runs. Needless to say, he’s upped his value quite a bit and all Braves fans are on the edge of their seats waiting to see how Gonzalez handles his time in the lineup.

But what is K.I.T., you ask? Keep It Together.

The Braves have lost their two dominant setup men in Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty. B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla continue to slump at the plate, although Uggs did tie the game with a home run in Friday’s game. The bullpen has gone to an antique six-man platoon, which is largely young pitchers. And yet, they swept their homestand, albeit against two teams that have struggled mightily this season. They maintain a four-game lead in the NL East over the rival Washington Nationals.

Medlen has had back to back good starts, even though some might argue giving up three runs hardly constitutes a good start. But he struck out nine in a park that’s on the receiving end of some pretty crappy weather and certainly kept the Braves in the game.

So, here’s where I get hesitant: Do I say the Braves still look good, even though they need to put more of their pieces together? Or do I defy the gods of fate and say they look terrible, and hope the momentum swings our way? No whammy, no whammy, no whammy! Tonight (Saturday) will bring an interesting conclusion to these questions as the Braves and Mets meet early to play (hopefully) one inning before going back out to play the originally scheduled game.

I can say there are some seriously bright spots on this team, which is 10 games over .500 even as they struggle to make all the pieces click. Brandon Beachy took another big step towards his return to the rotation on Friday night, throwing four innings for the Gwinnett Braves, giving up two runs on two hits. And I also can say if the Braves can Keep It Together while they go through these tough stretches of long road trips and figure out their injury setbacks, they stand to continue a strong bid for a postseason spot.

The post Atlanta Braves are all about Evan Gattis and K.I.T. appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

Anibal Sanchez picked up his fourth one-hitter last night. (Duane Burleson/Getty Images)

Taking a look around the league, here’s a recap of last night’s action and suggestions for your fantasy baseball team.

Mr. Clutch (pitcher) – Anibal Sanchez threw a one-hitter last night against the Twins, allowing three walks and striking out 12. This was a very nice bounce-back performance from his last outing against the Rangers. The big difference for Anibal Sanchez has been strikeouts (11.19 K/9), which has increased as well as Sanchez’s fastball velocity. He is a sneaky guy to target in trades because most people are not buying what they are seeing. Well I am. Go get Anibal Sanchez.

Mr. Clutch (hitter) – Another big game for Chris Davis, going 3-for-4 with one home run, one run scored, an RBI and a walk. We are roughly one-third of the way through the season, and Davis has gotten invited to the MVP table to have a cup of tea. Whether or not he stays for supper depends on if he keeps up this level of performance. The big reason so far has been his plate discipline. Strikeouts are way down, and walks are way up from his career numbers. He is swinging less and making more contact. I like him to continue what he is doing going forward.

Surprise, surprise! – Another Chris, Chris Young, had a big game last night against the Astros, going 3-for-5 with a home run, two runs scored and three RBIs. Young is giving the Athletics what he gave the Diamondbacks last year, which is not enough to matter in fantasy except for deep, AL-only leagues.

Here comes the heat – John Lackey had a big game last night going 7.0 innings allowing two hits, an earned run and three walks while striking out eight. It’s a small sample size, but Lackey is delivering what you would want from a guy coming off of Tommy John. The command is there, only 2.50 BB/9 and the K/9 is way up, 9.08. I like Lackey a bit this season, but I am not buying this version of Lackey. His GB% seems unsustainable, and I don’t think he can keep up the K/9 either. Enjoy the streak and sell high if you can.

Left out in the breeze –Ryan Braun was not very Ryan Braun last night, going 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. Being the number one overall pick has a lot of expectations to live up to, and so far, Braun is falling short of those expectations. Power is down a bit, so instead of 40 home runs, expect 30. He also isn’t going to get you 30 stolen bases either. While his OBP is at a career high, he only has two stolen bases on the year. Expect 10-15 stolen bases. With that being said, he is still a stud. But I believe Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera supplanted Braun as the top pick.

Who’s trending? – The upstart, David Phelps, no relation to Michael, looked pretty decent last night going 7.2 innings allowing six hits, four earned runs while striking out three. Needless to say, I am drinking the Kool-Aid — 8.83 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, 3.01 BABIP, and a 71.2 LOB%. That, to go along with a 1.24 WHIP and a 3.96 ERA, has me believing in Phelps. He is only owned in 15 percent of leagues, which is insane when you have Tim Lincecum (96 percent), Yovani Gallardo (93 percent), Tim Hudson (84 percent), Ryan Dempster (69 percent), Jeremy Guthrie (57 percent) and Kyle Lohse (45 percent), just to name a few, that I would drop in order to get Phelps.

Bench me, please? – Curtis Granderson cannot catch a break. He’s out at least four weeks with a broken knuckle in his pinkie. Tough, injury-plagued season for Granderson. What more can you say? Domonic Brown would be a good pickup to replace Granderson.

The Streamer – A.J. Griffin against the Astros is as about as good as it gets. Deploy with confidence!

The post Fantasy Daily: Anibal Sanchez, Chris Davis, Curtis Granderson appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

Matt Harvey gets an A on his report card. (Brian Garfinkel/Getty Images)

In previous articles, I predicted that New York Mets would not only surprise a lot of people, but contend for the National League Wild Card this year. They have disappointed thus far, at 17-27 going into Memorial Day Weekend, but the National League East is doing its best to keep the Mets in contention. Despite being 10 games under .500, the New York Mets are 10 games out of first place going into a weekend series against the Atlanta Braves. Whether the Mets climb back into contention or continue to disappoint will depend on the key areas below.

Starting pitching

The New York Mets’ starting pitching has been decidedly mixed in its results. At one extreme, there’s Matt Harvey, whose career has begun in historically good fashion. Harvey has four good pitches, all of which he throws with command to get outs. He’s a big presence on the mound, literally and figuratively, and he pitches with power (his fastball tops out in the upper 90s) and conviction. He can battle through tough situations, and he’s already being lauded for his presence among his teammates. He seems like the real deal, and he can even hit a little bit. He’s emerging as one of the truest aces in baseball.

Veteran starter Shaun Marcum, who seemed a decent candidate to be a solid number-three starter, missed a stretch of April with nerve inflammation in his neck. He’s been up and down since coming back, but as he settles in, he should be a pitcher the Mets can count on for quality starts more often than not.

By and large, the New York Mets starting pitching has otherwise been a disappointment: The starters’ collective ERA is 4.37, including Harvey’s 1.93. Dillon Gee and Jonathon Niese – the incumbent number-two starter — have struggled to go deep into games, putting pressure on an already beleaguered bullpen. Several times in the past week alone, New York Mets starters have spotted the opposition two or three runs early in the game. This clearly is not sustainable.

One somewhat hopeful sign has been Jeremy Hefner. Hefner’s season has been up and down thus far, but he’s shown an ability to battle through tough innings and pitched quite solidly at times. When his curveball is sharp, his tenacity makes him another middle-rotation starter who can soak up innings. He could be a solid fourth starter, behind Harvey and Marcum and Niese, and would be a more than adequate fifth starter when Zack Wheeler is promoted later in the season.

Grade: B-

Relief pitching

Last season, relief pitching was a major Achilles’ heel for the Mets. This season has been similar, with the bullpen ERA lingering at or near the bottom of major-league rankings. The relievers are not entirely to blame; the starting rotation’s frequent failure to last more than four or five innings has put a lot of physical and mental strain on the bullpen, contributing to its erratic performance. Of course, this is not the only explanation, as several decent starts and gritty comebacks have been spoiled by meltdown innings from the pen. At times, it seems Citi Field is where previously reliable relief pitchers lose their mojo. The bullpen has improved, of late, and its continued improvement will somewhat hinge on the performance and durability of the starting rotation. “Matt Harvey and pray for rain” does not a good bullpen make.

The lone bright spot for the bullpen has been closer Bobby Parnell. Parnell is 4-1, with six saves and a 0.89 WHIP, and his handful of blown saves have been the result of shoddy defense (most recently, Ike Davis whiffing a Brandon Phillips checked-swing into a double). He seems to be evolving into a true closer who wants the ball in the clutch and knows how to pitch instead of just relying on his upper-90s fastball to try and blow people away.

Grade: C+

Defense

The New York Mets’ defense has been, all things considered, fairly average, though it’s hurt them late in games a few times, mainly with Parnell on the mound (the aforementioned Davis blunder, a poorly thrown ball by Ruben Tejada and a misjudged shallow fly by Collin Cowgill). A surprising weak link, of late, has been Davis, whose previously outstanding defense has begun to mirror his woes at the plate. But overall, the defense has been solid, consistent and relatively error-free. Tejada plays a steady, dependable short, with occasional acrobatic flashes despite relatively few “web gems.” David Wright‘s defense has mostly been excellent, and Lucas Duda‘s outfield defense has leveled off to become mediocre but not damaging. The rest of the New York Mets outfield — though its hitting problems are well documented — has produced good range, strong arms and a good amount of defensive promise. Marlon Byrd has several outfield assists and has covered a good amount of ground wherever he’s played; Juan Lagares has played a speedy, assertive center field; Mike Baxter is rangy and athletic; and recent acquisition Rick Ankiel is known to be an excellent outfielder with a cannon for an arm. Jordany Valdespin, a converted second baseman, has shown good speed in the outfield and seems to be improving his positional comfort.

Grade: B

Hitting

The New York Mets’ hitting has been defined by inconsistency. They’ve shown signs of being hard to put away, staging numerous rallies and continuing to show they can score with two outs. They have a couple of guys with power and a couple of guys with speed. Two major problems plague them: their frighteningly indiscriminate tendency to look at pitches down the middle and Ike Davis.

First, the Ike Davis problem. Davis’ atrocious numbers — one hit in his last 40 at-bats — do not, if you can believe it, do his woes justice. His stance is too wide, his pitch recognition is awful and he seems as though he will swing a mile ahead of the laziest, loopiest curveball two or three times in a row. His recognition of the strike zone is similarly head-scratching, exacerbated by the fact he stands extremely far away from the plate. His tendency to roll his eyes, pout and mope after seemingly every borderline strike is alienating him from the umpires (who are often none too diplomatic, as I mentioned in an earlier post) as well as fans. He’s behind the fastball and ahead of the breaking pitch, and when he does hit the ball, his power is dissipated by his wide-open stance and a front hip that seems to be halfway to the dugout when his bat crosses the strike zone. He rarely makes a productive out. He personifies the expression “hole in the lineup” and, at long last, the New York Mets are considering demoting him to the minor leagues.

As for the “take a strike” approach, it’s been oft-discussed of late, not just regarding the New York Mets’ extreme application thereof but in general. Taking a strike is, in many situations, highly advisable. But there are times, situations and pitchers that not only don’t require it, but render it counterproductive. Some pitchers will take full advantage of getting a free first strike, and this puts New York Mets hitters at a disadvantage in many situations. This is particularly true of Duda, who has both power and versatility at the plate and yet too often seems to take hittable fastballs through the heart of the zone. If the New York Mets’ selective aggressiveness was to improve, they would go from a team that hits well with two outs and/or two strikes to a team that doesn’t get to two outs or two strikes as often. In a large park, with speedy line-drive hitters, a “small ball” approach is a good thing — but “small ball” and “working counts” shouldn’t put you at a disadvantage and lead to a free first strike for any pitcher who wants one. Taking pitches should work to your advantage, not increase the opposing pitcher’s comfort on the mound.

If the New York Mets can put themselves in more advantageous positions, their ability to hit line drives and take extra bases (their base running has been much more aggressive, which puts pressure on defenses and pitchers, and takes advantage of their decent team speed) will work to their advantage. Right now, they too often seem to approach at-bats like a power-hitting team, and this doesn’t favor them. With speedy role players and two veritable line-drive gap hitters in Wright and Daniel Murphy, along with a powerful lefty with a good eye in Duda, there’s not much excuse for the offense not to be consistently better. Until they learn to make pitchers pay for throwing “get it over” fastballs, and drop the yawning black hole that is Ike Davis from their lineup, they will continue to score sporadically.

Grade: B-

Coaching

I’m not sure Terry Collins knows what to do with the Mets, and this seems to be a problem. I’ve never been a fan of the “old-school tough guy” approach, and he isn’t even consistent about that. Sometimes he plays the “I care about my boys” role, and sometimes he does things like throw his rookie under the bus when an opposing team throws at him for looking at a home run for more than a split second. He changes the lineup too often, and refuses to sit Davis despite the fact he isn’t just slumping but speedily regressing. The New York Mets seem to never be out of a game, which is a good thing; they also seem never to put teams away when they get pitchers in trouble, which is a bad thing. The ability to play from behind is necessary but not sufficient, and until the New York Mets gain more of a proverbial killer instinct, they’ll stay mediocre. To me, this starts at the top. Collins has to infuse the Mets with the mentality of a team that puts other teams away and plays with authority. In the long run, being scrappy just isn’t enough.

Grade: B-

Overall

The New York Mets have flaws, but so do other teams that succeed. They also have young talent, a veteran superstar, a blossoming ace, a developing power closer and a historically good young ace. They have another potential ace in Zack Wheeler, and a legitimate run-producing catcher in Travis D’Arnaud, poised for promotion. The sum of their parts might not be overly daunting, but the New York Mets aren’t doing enough with what they have. Nobody thought much off the Oakland As or Baltimore Orioles last spring, either; they, and many other teams before them, mastered the art of maximizing their talent and rallying around leadership and one or two stars. The New York Mets have a veteran leader in Marlon Byrd, a versatile fourth outfielder who can play all three spots and has hit well in the clutch. They have David Wright, a perennial All-Star who is having one of his stronger overall seasons. They have a young lefty in Lucas Duda, who has prodigious power and an ability to hit situationally. They have a defensively solid shortstop in Ruben Tejada, who has shown some ability to deliver clutch singles and rarely gives away outs. Many teams have succeeded with a similar constellation, but their approach has to change. They can’t only play well with their backs against the wall, and they have to get their starting pitchers to last deeper into games so their relievers aren’t torched halfway through a homestand or road trip.

The New York Mets have to decide which version of themselves they’re going to be, while there are still many months left in the season. The rest of the National League East is playing below expectations (except for the Marlins, who seem intent on proving themselves the worst franchise in mainstream American sports), and there is still time. 17-27 is just not good enough for a team with this many promising players and solid parts.

Final Grade: C+

Keys to improvement

• Demote Ike Davis and move Lucas Duda to first base. Davis’ defense, previously the only reason to keep him around, has deteriorated to the point where Duda wouldn’t be that much of a dropoff.
• Move John Buck back up in the order.
• Be more aggressive at the plate, team-wide, and abandon the power approach — play gap to gap.
• Promote David Aardsma, recently signed, who can help buttress the beleaguered bullpen.

Suggested lineup

1. Daniel Murphy, 2B (He’s done surprisingly well at leadoff, and with his tendency to shoot the gaps, he’s a nice substitute for having a speed merchant at the top as he’ll often wind up at second base.)
2. Mike Baxter, LF (He’s a lefty line-drive hitter with decent athleticism, and he’s shown he’s fairly centered during clutch at-bats.)
3. David Wright, 3B
4. Lucas Duda, 1B
5. John Buck, C
6. Marlon Byrd, RF
7. Rick Ankiel, CF
8. Ruben Tejada, SS

There are almost 120 games to go in the season, and the New York Mets are currently playing a team that’s above them in the division. There’s still time to turn the season around, but first the New York Mets must learn to maximize their talent. Ya gotta believe.

The post New York Mets first-quarter report card appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

Even at the airport, I’m reminded of the Chicago Cubs’ fate. (R. Lincoln Harris)

The baseball season isn’t yet two months old, and it already feels like a lost cause. Supporters of Theo Epstein and his crew will cry out about looking to future and maybe contending in a few years, and they could one day be proven right about that. But as of right now, the Chicago Cubs find themselves in a 13-game hole in the NL Central. And even in the era of two wild-card teams in each league, the Cubs won’t be contending for either of those spots this year.

What does this mean? That’s easy: Expect the Chicago Cubs to sell, sell, sell at the trading deadline. Alfonso Soriano has 5-and-10 rights, but don’t you think he’d rather be in a playoff race come September? Matt Garza is now back in the starting rotation, but signing him to a long-term, free-agent deal after this season won’t happen. He’ll be traded (since he has no 5-and-10 rights) for three or four prospects right around the trade deadline. The only thing he’ll be doing for the next two months is improving his trade value, hopefully.

So, what else do the Chicago Cubs have after those two are gone? Nobody will want Carlos Marmol, that’s for certain. And trading one of the players brought in during Epstein’s short tenure — as was done with Paul Maholm last year — is certainly a possibility. But at the big-league level, the pickings appear to be very slim. There seems to be little doubt that the Chicago Cubs will be one of the sellers again this year. The rebuilding continues.

The post Chicago Cubs already in a deep hole appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

What? Sell Brett Lawrie? Are you friggin’ kidding me? (Brad White/Getty Images)

Since Monday (May 20), Josh Willingham is 5-for-15 with three home runs and five RBI. You may be asking, “What does this have to do with buy or sell?” If you read part one of this series, you would have seen that I recommended to go get and/or hold on to Willingham. It’s cool if you’re late to the part, because here are few more buy or sell candidates who can improve your team.

All stats are through May 22.

Brett Lawrie: Sell

Since the beginning of the 2012 season (661 plate appearances), Brett Lawrie has a slash line of .257/.309/.394, a far cry from the projections fantasy owners forecasted after his rookie season. So what’s the cause for Brett Lawrie’s poor start to the season? He is striking out too often (24 percent of the time), but it’s not from swinging at bad pitches. According to PITCHf/x data, he’s swinging at exactly the same number of pitches outside the zone. Instead, it’s fastballs within the strike zone that he’s swinging and missing on (22 percent of the time). In his first two major league seasons, he has a batting average of .365 against fastballs in the strike zone; this year it’s only .297.

The biggest adjustment pitchers have made this year is they’re throwing the fastball down in the zone, one of his weak spots. A problem I’m seeing with his swing is he moves his body toward the pitcher as the pitch comes toward him. As he does this his head moves toward the mound, which makes a 92 mph fastball look like 97 mph. Since he plays with so much #WANT, he’s prone to extended slumps. Specifically, he tries to hit a home run every time he starts off a game 0-3.¹ I was never a Brett Lawrie “guy” because his ADP (82 in NFBC) was too high for a player who hasn’t consistently provided the numbers to be that high of a draft pick. I wouldn’t have a problem if a fantasy owner dropped him in 10-12 mixed leagues, but if you used a seventh-ninth round pick on him, you have to bench him and hope he can make the necessary adjustments to reach the ceiling of his talent level.

Victor Martinez: Buy

The post Buy or sell: Brett Lawrie, Victor Martinez, Yoensis Cespedes, Jacoby Ellsbury, Miguel Montero appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

Tyler Danish had one of the most dominant high school seasons ever, going 15-1 with no earned runs allowed and 156 strikeouts over 94 innings.

If you haven’t heard of Tyler Danish, you haven’t paid much attention to high school baseball this year. The 6’-1” right-hander out of Plant City, Florida, put together one of the most ridiculously dominant seasons you will ever see, leading Durant High School to the state title game. Over 17 starts, he went 15-1 with 156 strikeouts over 94 innings, allowing just 32 hits. He also didn’t allow an earned run all season. That’s right, he tossed 94 innings without giving up one measly earned run. By the way, he also hit .411 over 33 games with nine home runs, 27 RBI and a .522 OBP/.756 SLG.

A nominee for the Gatorade National Player of the Year award, and owner of a fastball that can touch 95 mph, Danish was kind enough to take the time and answer some questions:

Well now, that was quite a season. Despite coming up just short of your team’s ultimate goal of winning a state title, what will you remember most about this season?

What I will remember most about this year is just the run this team put together. No one expected us to be where we ended up. Also, just how we grew as a family and became so close.

With a new chapter about to start in your life, whichever path you choose, what are you going to miss most about your high school days?

What I’ll miss most about high school is my friends. To go to school with the same people for four years and become so close, then just have to leave each other, is something I will really miss.

Who was the toughest hitter you faced this season, as well as pitcher when you were at the plate?

Probably Kyle Tucker of Plant High School, brother of former Gator and current Houston Astros prospect Preston Tucker. Toughest pitcher was fellow Gator recruit Brett Morales.

What was it about the University of Florida that made you want to commit and become a part of Gator Nation?

It was just a family atmosphere from the moment I stepped foot on campus.

Who has been the biggest influence in your baseball career?

My father, for sure. He passed away from cancer during my sophomore year, and that just made me drive even harder to make our goals come true — which was sign a D1 scholarship and play professionally!

When not playing baseball, what does Tyler Danish do to relax and unwind?

I do what every other high school kid does: Hang out with friends and enjoy his last moments of high school.

As the streak went on, did you feel the added pressure of having to be perfect every time out, or did you use it as motivation?

Yes, when you have a streak like that, it’s always in your head to keep it going and not have it end. But the pressure of being perfect? I wouldn’t say that. I just pitched and competed to get a win for my team.

Favorite baseball movie?

The Benchwarmers. I just enjoy the comedy of the movie, and I can watch it all the time!

If you could sit down and pick the brain of one player, past or present, who would it be, and why?

Probably either Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson. They were probably the most influential pitchers for me. Both threw hard and had the same mentality of attacking hitters. Both were fiercely competitive, and that’s exactly how I play the game.

If I were to ask your teammates what kind of person Tyler Danish is, what would they say?

They would say I’m a great leader and very, very humble. That I go about my business and I get it done. Also, I don’t take short cuts!

Besides catching a Cougars game, what is there to do in Plant City? Best food?

There is the strawberries. We are the strawberry capital of the world! And then there is Fred’s BBQ, best barbecue in the world!

Last question, and it’s hypothetical. Would you rather hit a walk-off home run to win the world series or get the final strikeout on the mound?

That is a hard question since I play both ways. But definitely a strikeout to win the game with the crowd going crazy. Just to have the ball in your hand at the end of the game is something I look forward to.

I would like to thank Tyler Danish for his time and wish him the best of luck in whichever path he chooses! You can follow him and his journey on Twitter @danish_tyler7.

Also, feel free to follow me on Twitter @DanMKirby for 2013 MLB draft updates, prospect news and Chicago Cubs ramblings.

The post 2013 MLB draft: Interview with RHP Tyler Danish appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

Bryce Harper has been giving manager Davey Johnson headaches after a tumultuous week in the outfield. (Lucy Nicholson/Reuters)

In my last post, I advised Washington Nationals fans not to panic, but to prepare to. Since then, they have a record of 7-8 with a run differential of -14 and find themselves four and a half games behind the Atlanta Braves in the National League East.

The Nats now return to Washington following a West Coast road trip which featured Bryce Harper running into a wall, Ryan Mattheus breaking his hand punching a locker, Jayson Werth suffering an injury setback, Ross Detweiler missing a start and Rafael Soriano blowing two saves, and making some pretty cheap comments about Bryce Harper after the second blown save.

The biggest problem remains the offense. So far this season, they average just under 3.4 runs per game having scored 159. Only two teams have scored fewer runs, the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have played two fewer games, and the Miami Marlins, who shouldn’t be the basis for comparison for any team. They also rank second worst in the majors for batting average (.225) and OBP (.289).

Harper has been doing his best, hitting 12 of the team’s 42 home runs, including an important one against the Giants to end the road trip on a high. While it’s easy to keep pointing the finger at the same people for not performing, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to justify Danny Espinosa’s place in the starting line-up. Hitting just .163 ranks him third worst among eligible players, and his OBP is 40 points lower than Ike Davis, coming in at .196. Espinosa has also continued to show incredibly poor discipline at the plate, taking just four walks while striking out 40 times.

One of the problems is there’s no one obvious to replace Espinosa at second base. Anthony Rendon may be doing well in double-A Harrisburg, but he struggled when he was up earlier this year. Steve Lombardozzi has been getting a fair bit of playing time but isn’t good enough to be an every day starter. So, we might just have to ride the slump and hope the likes of Adam LaRoche continue to improve with the bat.

Some mistakes in the field have also cost the Nats dearly in recent weeks. No team has committed more errors than the Nationals, whether it’s Ryan Zimmerman spoiling the perfect game Stephen Strasburg had going against the Cubs, Jordan Zimmermann throwing away a pickoff attempt to lose the game in San Diego or Bryce Harper flinching at the wall in San Francisco.

There are also issues in the clubhouse. While it’s always good to see players who are passionate about their team, and we’d be ever more worried if they simply shrugged their shoulders after a loss, it’s not encouraging to hear Soriano suggest that his four-year-old son could have done a better job of playing right-field than Bryce Harper. Mattheus was so upset at giving up five runs in one inning on Monday that he broke his hand punching a locker. When skipper Davey Johnson was asked how he felt about the incident, he replied he wanted to “choke him to death.”

The pitching has certainly picked up in the last few weeks. Though, in my eyes, big question marks remain about Dan Haren. I’d be surprised if he stays in the rotation for the rest of the season. Strasburg has had his off-speed stuff looking filthy in his last few starts, giving up just two earned runs in his last 20 innings. Gio Gonzalez has worked through his early season command issue, walking just six in his last 21 innings over three starts and Zimmermann looks like a total stud; his line for the last five games reads 39.2 IP, 4ER, 3BB, 30K.

While the starters have been handing over solid outings, the bullpen has struggled to see them through, despite the best efforts of Tyler Clippard. Soriano has been inconsistent at best, and the sight of Fernando Abad and Yunesky Maya warming up in the bullpen sent cold shivers down the spines of most Nats fans. Watching the latter stages of recent games has left some with flashbacks to game five of last year’s NLDS.

All of this brings us back to a question we thought we had finally left behind: Should the Nats have gone for broke last year and lifted the innings limit on Strasburg? If the current form continues, that’s something we’ll be hearing about for years.

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Jose Bautista flexed some big numbers on Wednesday. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

Taking a look around the league, here’s a recap of last night’s action and suggestions for your fantasy baseball team.

Mr. Clutch (pitcher) – Cliff Lee went the distance last night against Miami with a complete-game shutout, allowing just three hits and two walks while strikeout out five. Other than Lee’s K/9 dropping off, he has been very good. He should continue to be a top-10 pitcher, especially with him actually getting wins this year. With five wins, he already has almost as many as he did the entire last season.

Mr. Clutch (hitter) – Jose Bautista provided all of the offense last night to beat the Rays, going 4-for-4 with two home runs, two runs, four RBIs, a walk and a stolen base. He also saved a baby from a burning building, performed a successful Heimlich maneuver on a choking man and found the cure for cancer. Jose Bautista has not been 2011 good, but he is providing you with numbers that you were hoping for. The dismal 2012 season seems to be in Jose Bautista’s rearview mirror.

Surprise, surprise! – A weird thing happened to me yesterday. This crazy chick I used to kind of sort of see added me to Facebook. We started chatting, and the next thing you know, I have her number just like that. I wake up this morning, look at the stat lines, and see my boy, Francisco Liriano, went 7.0 innings, allowing two hits, zero earned runs and a walk while striking out nine against the Cubs. I really couldn’t even begin to make up the coincidences. I should just delete her number, but that’s not happening, just like I should be overlooking what Liriano has done and not add him in every league I can. Needless to say, this is going to end badly, particularly for me. Don’t get sucked into the madness.

Here comes the heat – Daniel Murphy continued to sizzle last night, going 3-for4 with two runs and two RBIs. In the last week, he has gone 12-for-28 with seven runs, two home runs and five RBIs. Surprisingly, he’s 29 years old (I thought he was like 35 years old) and in the midst of possibly one of his best seasons. From what you have seen so far from Murphy, I think you can expect to continue the rest of the way. Look for 12-15 home runs this season.

Left out in the breeze –Hiroki Kuroda took a Manny Machado liner off of the calf last night and had to be removed, but not before doing some serious damage to owners’ WHIP and ERA. He went 2.0 innings and allowed eight hits and five earned runs. Joe Girardi fully expects Kuroda back next outing, which is good news. He’s having a very good season, but this could have been a game that exposed Kuroda’s underlying numbers. He is a sell-high.

Who’s trending? – Everyone jumped on Rex Brothers as he was a possible closer replacement if Rafael Betancourt was going to miss time. He pitched a clean ninth inning last night to pick up the save and has been all that and a bag of chips this season. Unfortunately, it looks as though Betancourt will be back this Friday. But continue to monitor this situation, this might not be that last time this season we see Brothers trend.

Bench me, please? – Fernando Rodney blew his  fourth save opportunity last night and was yanked in favor Joel Peralta. This could be all she wrote for Rodney, and I would be shopping him around like mad, taking 25 cents on the dollar. Kyle Farnsworth becomes the must-add if you are speculating for saves.

The Streamer – Kevin Gausman, the hot prospect call-up, is who I am recommending tonight. In double-A this season, Gausman has a 1.06 WHIP, 3.93 ERA, 9.52 K/9 and a 0.97 BB/9. I think he surprises the Blue Jays tonight and becomes one of the most added players by the morning. Deploy with confidence!

The post Fantasy Daily: Jose Bautista, Cliff Lee, Francisco Liriano appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

Who will take over the Yankees closer role when Mariano Rivera rides off into the sunset?

Never underestimate the importance of the bullpen. The reason for the New York Yankees’ surprising success this year is in large part because of how well their relievers have pitched. After a rocky start to the season, the Yankees relief corps has the best bullpen in the majors, posting a 2.49 ERA and a FIP of 3.35 over the last 30 days.

Of course, no small amount of credit for the bullpen’s success goes to Mariano Rivera, who for the moment is perfect in save opportunities. The future Hall of Famer, as anyone who hasn’t been living under a rock knows, is retiring after this season and will leave a gaping hole at the end of the bullpen when he does. While you don’t replace the all-time saves leader, someone will need to be the Yankees closer in 2014. In light of how well the bullpen is performing, this season can be seen as an audition for many of the Yankees’ relievers.

David Robertson appears to be the natural choice as the heir to the Yankees closer throne. He has been an excellent setup man since 2010. However, last year when Mo went down in early May with a torn ACL that ended his season, it was the now-departed Rafael Soriano and not Robertson who ended up closing out the vast majority of games. One reason was that Soriano, who had spent his career as a closer, was signed to a ridiculously large contract. The other reason was that Robertson, who Joe Girardi had initially given the role, did not perform very well. He blew a couple of saves, which led to rumblings in the media about whether he had the right make-up to handle being a closer, let alone the Yankees closer. He did address the aftermath well, even going on Twitter to apologize to Yankees fans about his blown saves. Robertson ended up having just two saves last season, but he has been by far the most consistent reliever not named Rivera. My guess is the job will be his to lose.

Then there is troubled child Joba Chamberlain. A few seasons ago, he would have been the obvious choice, but he’s been inconsistent, injury-prone and petulant. Plus, he may have written his Yankees-career death sentence earlier this month. Chamberlain got nasty with Rivera after the closer politely told him to keep his voice down while Rivera was conducting an interview with a reporter in the dugout. Chamberlain, who had been yelling to family and friends in the stands, responded by threatening Rivera with “don’t ever shush me” and after the fact didn’t appear repentant for his boorish behavior. Joba’s contract is up at the end of the season. The Yankees will most likely part ways with the righty, and he’ll sign with another team that will think it can “fix him” so he can be a starter again. (See Coke, Phil, on how that will turn out.)

Boone Logan is an interesting option. More than a lefty specialist, Logan is capable of getting right-handers out, too. Last year, his splits versus lefties and righties were almost identical, with left-handers hitting .231 against him and right-handers averaging .238. This year the results thus far have been similar, if less impressive, with righties batting .281 and lefties .276, although both those numbers and his WHIP have been steadily decreasing. Logan’s contract is also up next year and the front office has mostly stayed away from giving relievers big money contracts. If the Yankees do keep Logan, it will be primarily as a specialist who can also get them through a few right-handed hitters.

The Yankees closer role could also go to a young gun. Dellin Betances was once one of the Yankees top pitching prospects. The big 25-year-old righty has not lived up to his promise as a starter so the Yankees recently put him in the bullpen. He fared well in his first two relief appearances at triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, allowing only one run in 4.1 innings and striking out four. GM Brian Cashman has said he hopes that as a reliever, Betances can amp up his velocity from 92-96 mph to 96-100 mph (he topped out at 97 in his two relief appearances). All closers are failed starters, including Rivera, so if Betances can find success in the bullpen he could be an intriguing choice as the Yankees closer. He just got called up to the big league club so we may soon see what Betances can or can’t do.

No matter who is coming out of the pen to slam the door on games in 2014, fans may be gripping their pillow tight after the Sandman rides off into the sunset.

The post Who will be the next great Yankees closer? appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

Yu Darvish has been the mainstay for the Texas Rangers, but the support cast has been outstanding as the team recovers from numerous injuries. (Mike Stone/Reuters)

If you didn’t know any better, you would have thought the Texas Rangers had an alter ego.

After taking three of four from the Detroit Tigers, including wins over two of their best pitchers, Justin Verlander and Doug Fister, the Texas Rangers bats seem to have taken on a completely different life of their own.

In two games against the Oakland Athletics, the Rangers have scored just two runs on nine hits in the last 18 innings against the team that continues to be a little thorn in their side.

Fans have witnessed the team experience numerous injuries, including Matt Harrison, Alexi Ogando, Colby Lewis, Neftali Feliz, Joakim Soria, who the team signed during the offseason and who has yet to see his debut, Ian Kinsler and A.J. Pierzynski, who returned to the team on Tuesday night. Yet the Texas Rangers have remained competitive thanks to two young starters in Justin Grimm and Nick Tepesch, as well as young bullpen arms Robbie Ross and Tanner Scheppers, who have been nothing short of phenomenal every time manager Ron Washington calls on them.

But what happens when the offense takes a dirt nap for two games, especially against a team they have no business losing to? If every game counts, as some have said, will the last two games come back to bite the Texas Rangers in the backside?

The seven-run outburst against Justin Verlander would seem to be the Mr. Hyde part of this team. However, Dr. Jekyll seems to come out with the attitude of “maybe we shouldn’t hurt them.”

The Texas Rangers should be playing with a chip on their shoulders for the entire 162-game regular season. I say that because out of 43 ESPN analysts asked to give their predictions on each division in baseball, only five picked the Rangers to win the AL West. The other 38 picked either the Los Angeles Angels or the Oakland Athletics.

In the movie, most people don’t want to see Mr. Hyde make an appearance because you know bad things are going to happen.

If you’re asking for my opinion, that’s the guy I want to see all season long, because that alter ego will have no mercy on any opponent this team faces regardless of being at home or on the road.

Oh, and by the way, for those who said clubhouse atmosphere doesn’t play a big part in how a team performs, I think most of us can see a huge difference on how this season’s team carries itself in comparison to the Texas Rangers teams we’ve seen over the last three to four years, regardless of their run to two straight World Series appearances.

I’m certainly not going to be naive enough to believe this team can keep putting up the kind of numbers they’ve put up over the last few weeks, but I do see a distinct difference between this team and last year’s version.

No longer are they counting on one guy to carry the team, and no longer are they falling off with each injury. If ever there was a time we could say this Texas Rangers team is finally coming together as a team, it would be right now.

Two losses to Oakland don’t concern me all that much, especially not even two months into the season. What I saw against the Tigers is what I believe this team really is. Scoring two runs in two games is certainly frustrating, but you won’t see two months of that like you saw last season.

Had you given a list of the current injuries to anyone in baseball and told them the Texas Rangers would be leading the division by almost five games after two months of the season, most of them would have laughed you out of the room.

But, lo and behold, this team is doing just that.

We talk about the trade deadline and how you can add an impact bat or a front-of-the-rotation arm for the stretch run to the division crown and into the playoffs. However, think of getting two arms for the bullpen (Soria, Feliz) and two starters for the rotation (Harrison, Lewis), and not giving up a single piece from your minor league or big league team. I would think most would be jumping for joy. There’s no guarantee that you’ll get anything of substance from any of them, especially since they are all coming off some sort of surgery.

This team has the ability to hold off the Angels and the A’s, but it’s going to depend on which team shows up. Is it going to be the team that manhandled the Detroit Tigers just a few days ago, or is it going to be the team that scores two runs in 18 innings of baseball?

It’s the case of Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde. While we’ll see a little of both for the remainder of the season, only one can determine what this team will be when game 162, and the 2013 season, comes to a close.

The post Texas Rangers: A case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

Paul Konerko still has gas in the tank, so sit tight. (Rich Pilling/Getty Images)

After my first buy or sell piece, I received a lot of requests from readers about other players they would like more information about. I’ve heard you loud and clear. Below is part two in my series. Tomorrow, I’ll be reviewing Victor Martinez, Brett Lawrie, Yoenis Cespedes, Miguel Montero and maybe Jacoby Ellsbury.

All stats are through May 20.

Paul Konerko: Push

In my fantasy guide, a big reason I was down on Paul Konerko heading into the year had nothing to do with a potential decline in his skill set due to his age (he’s 34). I was concerned he wouldn’t have an opportunity to drive in and score runs due to the deficiencies of the construction of the lineup around him and hitting behind Adam Dunn. Dunn is a three-outcome player as he only hits home runs, walks or strikes out; last year, he had one of these outcomes in 57 percent of his at-bats, while the major league average is 29.5 percent. For example, last year, Paul Konerko ranked 60th in majors (among players with at least 300 at-bats) in plate appearances with runners on-base.¹ This year he ranks 118th, tied with the likes of Pete Kozma, Ichiro Suzuki and Lorenzo Cain. I can’t say I’m surprised because the White Sox have the thrid lowest OBP in the league with .294. In terms of skill set, it appears his bat speed may have decreased. He’s striking 11 percent of the time on fastballs, the last three years it’s been 9.1 percent. He’s also swinging and missing more on fastballs, 10.1 percent this year compared to 9.3 percent the past three years. On secondary pitches, his BABIP is 12 percent lower than last year, and he’s swinging and missing 20 percent more often, but is putting 9 percent more of those balls play. Basically, it looks like he’s getting unlucky on secondary pitches. Paul Konerko is a better player than he’s shown thus far, but you have a player who will hit .250-260 with 15-20 home runs.

Danny Espinosa: Sell

At the beginning of last September, Espinosa tore his left rotator cuff and decided to play with the injury instead of getting surgery for the 2013 season. That reason alone is why I buried him on my cheat sheet, because I never want to roster players who are already injured. How many walks does he have so far this year? Three. Espinosa has never been much of a walker, but we’re at Jeff Keppinger levels now. His strikeout rate is one percentage point lower than last year (27 percent), and his contact rates the same as last year, but it’s the type of contact that is a big red flag. Last year, he hit a ground ball 47 percent of the time; this year, it’s 49.5 percent. In general, ground balls produce the lowest likelihood of generating runs compared to fly balls and line drives. So, he has a poor approach at the plate and he’s making the same amount of contact, but it’s a lot weaker, and on top of all that, he has a rotator cuff issue. I’m selling him to anyone who thinks he can turn it around.

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Mike Trout goes cycling for fantasy baesball owners. (Harry How/Getty Images)

Taking a look around the league, here’s a recap of last night’s action and suggestions for your fantasy baseball team.

Mr. Clutch (pitcher) – Max Scherzer delivered a gem last night, pitching 8.0 innings and allowing 2 hits, an earned run, a walk while striking out seven.  Scherzer has been quietly good this season, and according to ESPN’s player rater, he is currently 12th overall for pitchers. Scherzer has a 0.91 WHIP, 3.61 ERA, a 2.34 FIP, and a 2.57 xFIP, which looks like he still could be a buy-low pitcher if you can find an owner who is not totally buying his start. I like Scherzer as a top-10 pitcher this season. He has been nothing short of spectacular and should continue to do so.

Mr. Clutch (hitter) – Why hello there Mike Trout. Eventually the number three overall pick was going to find his way onto this list, and he did so in a big way last night. Against Seattle, he became the third youngest player to hit for the cycle. Mike Trout went 4-for-5 with a home run, five RBIs, two runs and a stolen base. With that said, and based on his lofty draft status, he has been a bit disappointing, but this could be the game that really gets him going. He still on pace for a 30-30 season, but when drafting him, you probably expected 40 or 50 steals. I like Mike Trout going forward, and even if he has that buy-low feel, you are not prying him away for cheap. Not after a game like this.

Surprise, surprise! – Any pitcher to go into Arlington and dominate the way Dan Straily did is a complete shock. Straily went 7.0 innings allowing two hits and zero runs while striking out five. He is a young pitcher with high upside and starts like this prove it, but he will struggle. Going forward, I still am not ready to put him out there for every start in a one-year, 12-team mixed league.

Here comes the heat – The Tony Cingrani competition must have awoken something in Mike Leake because he has been fantastic in his last couple starts. Last night, Leake pitched 7.0 innings allowing three hits zero runs and two walks while striking out four. The big difference for Leake is he’s been inducing more groundballs and giving up less home runs, which is a good thing when you call the Great American Ball Park your home.

Left out in the breeze –Zack Greinke got shellacked last night, lasting 4.0 innings and allowing nine hits, five earned runs, three walks while only striking out one. In a small sample size, you have to be worried about Greinke going forward. Velocity is down, strikeouts are down, and looking at his advanced numbers, there is cause for concern. I never like to sell low, but if I could get 80 cents on the dollar for Greinke, I would take it.

Who’s trending? – Raul Ibanez has been as hot as it comes lately, racking up four home runs, four runs and nine RBIs in his last six games. Last night against the Angels, he finished just 1-for-3 so if he shows any signs of slowing down, feel free to drop in standard 12-team mixed leagues. He’s a ride-the-streak kind of guy.

Bench me, please? – It is time to cut bait with Brett Lawrie. Another 0-for-4 with one strikeout performance gives him a .186/.248/.347 slash line. Lawrie is also striking out way above his career numbers. This is a guy I never really liked for where you had to draft him in order to own him, and now I think he is an AL-only play. I also would not be surprised if the Blue Jays send him down to the minors. If you can get anything for this guy via trade, I would take it.

The Streamer – Francisco Liriano is trying to suck me back in, and he is slowly doing so by me recommending him as a streamer. The Cubs have a so-so offense and Liriano has been nothing short of spectacular in a small sample size. As an avid Liriano supporter in the past, I have actively ignored his success this season. He’s that crazy girl you keep going back to every time she calls you up. Well, Liriano is calling me up. Deploy with confidence!

The post Fantasy Daily: Mike Trout, Max Scherzer, Dan Straily appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

This punch was worth at least 10 wins in the Cubs-White Sox interleague series. (Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

MLB is trying something new this year with top interleague matchups. Rather than having two weekend series, one in each team’s park, as they have in the past, they will be staging a four-day baseball extravaganza in Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, the DC/Baltimore area, the San Francisco Bay, Missouri, Ohio and Florida starting next Monday. Why anyone thinks that four weekday games will draw more than six weekend games clearly knows something that I don’t. We’ll just have to see how it all goes down next week.

There is one consideration that nobody else has noticed to this point. It’s not that the White Sox lead the all-time Chicago showdown series 49-41. (Personally, because the Cubs have one punch thrown at A.J. Pierzynski, I think that should be worth 10 extra games, at least.) It’s how each team has performed on weekday games.

After losing to the Pirates in Matt Garza’s return on Tuesday night, the Cubs are 12-11 on the season in games played on a Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday. The White Sox, on the other hand, are 15-10 on the season on games played on those four days, after beating the Red Sox at U.S. Cellular Field. For these two sub-.500 teams, playing on the weekdays is clearly the best thing.

A weekend series — or even two of them, with one on each side of Chicago — would not be a pretty thing to behold. The White Sox are 6-13 in games played on a Friday, Saturday or Sunday. The Sox won their first Saturday game back in April, but have lost the last six straight. And the Cubs are even worse at 6-15 in weekend games and 1-6 on Sundays. Someone would have to win these games, of course, but weekend baseball hasn’t been good in Chicago so far this season.

One of the two Chicago teams has to play to form and win three out of the four games next week, while the other has to come back to earth and lose more than they win. Nobody wants to see a split, after all. For my part, I say Go Cubs!

The post Cubs-White Sox battle for weekday supremacy next week appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

Disappointing Mattingly … no ‘stache. Successful Mattingly … rocking a ‘stache. Coincidence?

Who would have thought that something said more than 70 years ago couldn’t be truer today? When Leo Durocher said in 1939 that “nice guys finish last,” he might as well have been talking about Los Angeles Dodgers manager Don Mattingly in 2013.

Mattingly is the manager of the Dodgers … for now. He will probably still be the man in Los Angeles tomorrow. And maybe even the next day.

But he won’t be for long.

Mattingly will be fired soon, and it’s a shame. He deserves a better fate. We’re talking about Donnie Baseball, for Pete’s sake!

Groomed to manage a Major League Baseball team since he began coaching for Joe Torre with the New York Yankees in 1996, Mattingly is a baseball guy. He is one of the best hitters of the past 30 years.

Mattingly exudes baseball confidence. He looks good in a baseball uniform, which is something that can’t be said for many MLB skippers. Mattingly did an admirable job in leading the Dodgers to an 86-76 record in 2012, his second with the team since taking over for Torre in Los Angeles in 2011.

Mattingly is a nice guy. Ask anyone and they’ll tell you. And he can’t control injuries, of which the Dodgers have had more than their share this season. That being said, though, Mattingly won’t be able to ride out this season of disappointment in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers stink now, as they have all season. A record of 18-25 just doesn’t cut it when the new ownership group shelled out $215 million for the team payroll. Magic Johnson and the Guggenheim Partners didn’t assemble this roster to just give it the old college try.

Anything short of a serious playoff performance this season is going to be a disappointment for Dodgers fans from Rancho Cucamonga to Rochester. That’s why Mattingly had better be updating his resume and tapping into his LinkedIn network.

Every baseball writer with half a Twitter follower is talking about Mattingly’s impending departure. If (when!) the Dodgers make it official and give Mattingly his walking papers, where should they look for a replacement?

I’ll tell you where – about 90 feet from home plate at Dodger Stadium, that’s where. Current third base coach Tim Wallach is the man Ned Colletti should hire to try to straighten out this train wreck of a 2013 baseball team.

Wallach was born about five miles from Dodger Stadium in Huntington Park. He played for the Dodgers and set the single-season win record as manager of triple-A Albuquerque in 2009 by leading the Isotopes to 80 wins.

It has never been a question of “if” Wallach will manage in the major leagues; it has only been a question of “when.” Wallach has been a hot managing candidate for several years and has received several serious interviews.

There may also be discussion about bringing Mike Scioscia back to Los Angeles (not Anaheim!) if and when he gets fired as manager of the Angels. Scioscia and his Angels are actually in the throes of a worse season than the Dodgers, and that’s saying a lot!

With a 13-year track record that speaks for itself, Angels owner Arte Moreno will probably give Scioscia the benefit of finishing the season before a change is made. However, even if Scioscia becomes available, I think the Dodgers’ managerial search should begin and end at third base with Wallach.

I haven’t created the website www.canmattingly.com. I am not lobbying for the Dodgers to cut the cord with Mattingly. However, I am sick of watching my favorite team play listless baseball and continue to lose series after series.

I would love to see Mattingly get mad. I would love to see him look like Tommy Lasorda after his favorite Italian restaurant ran out of linguini. But it’s not going to happen. That’s not who Mattingly is, and I respect him for it.

Mattingly is going to be a successful manager one day. That day just isn’t going to come while he’s in Los Angeles, unless he’s the skipper of a visiting team playing a three-game set at Chavez Ravine.

The post Dodgers beat: Donnie Baseball wearing thin in Los Angeles appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

Contributors: Eliza Bayne, Jon Sender, Zach Pennington, Stephen Arenholtz, Glen Hentz

The hottest topics for the week of April 28, 2013 …

Ian Kinsler attempts and nails the perfect Lohan.

President evil: Reid Ryan is the new president of the Houston Astros. Because someone had to.

Back to the future: The Yankees came from behind to win against the Orioles with home runs from Lyle Overbay and Travis Hafner and an RBI double from Vernon Wells – even though it isn’t 2008.

Injury pro: The Red Sox announced that reliever Andrew Bailey was activated from the disabled list. And is expected back on the disabled list next week.

Cleveland crocks: The Indians expect Daisuke Matsuzaka to pitch in the minor leagues next month. They also expect to win the pennant and for Cleveland to become the center of the universe.

Lose Angeles: The Dodgers are off to a terrible start, but ownership representative Magic Johnson remains positive.

Double trouble: The Braves’ Jonny Venters underwent his second Tommy John surgery of his career. Only one more and the fourth one is free!

Be kind, rewind: Major League Baseball might make video replay available next season for all plays, but it’s Major League Baseball, so they’ll be using VHS tapes exclusively.

Offensive move: Last week, the Rangers’ Ian Kinsler displayed the worst base-running slide in recorded history. The team can’t decide whether it should be called “the Lohan” or “the Bynes.”

Catcher in the thigh: The Phillies Carlos Ruiz is scheduled for an MRI for his hamstring. This season he’s got a .571 OPS after missing the first 25 games because of a failed test for amphetamines. Last year, Ruiz was an All-Star, because of his .935 OPS … and his amphetamines.

Extra Innings

Headline news: The New York Jets’ Mike Goodson was arrested on drug possession and weapon charges in an effort to make up for the loss of Tim Tebow media coverage.

Balls! Seattle lost out on getting the Sacramento Kings. But did they really?

After hours: I think the main issue I had with the series finale of The Office was that it wasn’t three years ago.

Kulture klub: Have Kim and Kanye chosen an Instagram filter for the baby yet?

Face time: Kristen Stewart is “super sad” about her breakup. A friend of Stewart’s who asked to remain anonymous said that she “couldn’t tell” because “Kristen only has one facial expression.”

Price is right: Yahoo bought Tumblr. Not to be outdone, Bing purchased Friendster.

The post The Hot Corner: Andrew Bailey, Ian Kinsler, Tumblr appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

Josh Willingham is worth keeping/buying in fantasy leagues. (Jesse Johnson/US Presswire)

After every draft fantasy, owners are filled optimism and believe all of their players will meet, if not, exceed their expectations. That feeling starts to quickly dissipate during the first 1-for-20 streak. The players listed below have started the season extremely slow. All are bound to improve, but will they rebound to the level their fantasy owners expected when they drafted them? It’s buy or sell. If you’re looking for write-ups on Ike Davis, Eric Hosmer or Rickie Weeks go here, here, and here.

All stats are through May 19.

Josh Willingham: Buy

Josh Willingham’s biggest fantasy asset is his power. For the past two seasons Josh Willingham has been a 30-home-run threat, but he’s only on pace to hit 20. I’m not worried. He’s hitting the same percentage of ground balls and fly balls as last year¹ with the only difference being the HR/FB rate (12.5 percent) is the lowest it’s been since 2010. His strikeout rate is a career best (27.5 percent), but it’s only one percentage point higher than his 2011 season. Another great indicator is the career-best walk rate (16.3 percent). His contact rates are two percent lower this year, but that’s due to his reluctance to swing at pitches in the middle of the zone. The past two seasons, he swung at those pitches 57 percent of the time compared to only 52 percent this year. If both the walk and strikeout rates continue the rest of the year, fantasy owners should expect a .230-.240 hitter instead of the .260 he posted last year. Most importantly the power should return;² maybe not the 35 he hit last year, but 30 is definitely obtainable.

B.J. Upton: Sell

Could Upton have a worse start for his new team than he has so far this season? Even though his batting average is below my weight, the one aspect of his game fantasy owners expected to be slump-proof was his stolen bases, but he’s only on pace for 11. That’s not a misprint. Only 11 steals! It’s reasonable to expect his steals to increase as he gets on base on more. It’s easy to see his BABIP, which is nearly 100 points lower than it was the past two seasons, and assume it should regress back to his statistical mean. However, I find it unlikely he’ll improve. His ground ball rate, 48.8 percent, has increased 21 percent from last year while his strikeout rate (33.8 percent) has increased nearly 27 percent. After watching some of his recent at-bats, I don’t think he has the look of a player who’s running into bad luck. Instead, he looks completely lost at the plate. With an ADP of 40 (in NFBC) you can’t drop him, but you should definitely bench him. If you can get 70 cents on the dollar, you should trade him. But even then, I would be hesitant because his skill set is so good. If you can acquire him on the cheap, you should, because acquiring players like Upton will win you leagues.

Ryan Vogelsong: Buy

If you read my fantasy guide you would know I saw a regression coming for Vogelsong. But I would be lying if I thought he would be this bad. All the luck-based metrics LOB%, HR/FB and BABIP all suggest he’s been extremely unlucky to begin the year. Right now, a large portion of the fantasy community is ready to give up on him. But like with most board games, Caylus for example, in order to win, you have to zig when your opponents zag. The velocity of his fastball is down nearly two mph compared to two years ago, which is certainly not a good thing, but it’s not the end of the world. Felix Hernandez’s velocity has been in decline since 2007, and he’s still an elite pitcher. Vogelsong’s biggest problem has been the command of three pitches: fastball, changeup and curveball. Before this year, he threw the fastball up in the zone 33-35 percent of the time. This year it’s 39.4 percent. So, he’s throwing the ball slower at a location where hitters make a lot of hard contact; that sir, is a recipe for disaster. For statistical evidence, hitters are hitting .323 against the fastball compared to only .246 a year ago. He’s missing up a lot more with the changeup and curveball too, which makes the pitches less effective because those pitches are supposed to be thrown down and away from the hitter.³ The days of Vogelsong of being a sub-3.50 ERA pitcher are gone, but he pitches in one of the best pitcher’s parks in majors, and most importantly, the Giants do not have any high-ceiling prospects who are almost major-league ready⁴. What he can be is a 4.00 ERA streamable pitcher who will have a lot of favorable matchups pitching in the worst division in baseball, the NL West.

Justin Smoak: Sell

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Patrick Corbin has been the fantasy breakout pitcher of the year. (Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

Taking a look around the league, here’s a recap of last night’s action and suggestions for your fantasy baseball team.

Mr. Clutch (pitcher) – Patrick Corbin has taken the fantasy world by storm this season, and he delivered a coup de grâce last night. Patrick Corbin threw a complete game allowing three hits, one run, a walk while striking out 10 in Colorado. Patrick Corbin screams sell high with a hefty 88.2 LOB% and a minuscule 3.9 percent HR/FB rate but he continues to pile up solid numbers and is having an amazing year.

Mr. Clutch (hitter) – Is Brandon Belt emerging? Going 4-for-4 with a home run, four runs and a RBI gets you noticed. You have to like that everything is pointing up for Belt — OBP of .329, SLG of .449, ISO of .188 are all career highs. His plate discipline has improved as well. Belts Z-Swing% has remained on pace from last season of 81.5 but his Z-Contact% of 89.2 has improved from his career average of 86.1. Belt’s O-Swing% of 34.8 is up just a bit from his career average of 31.5. The big difference; however, is his O-Contact% of 64.6 is much higher than his career average of 58.8. You wonder if his contact percentage is just a young player improving or just a young player playing above his head in a small sample size. I have said all year I like Belt’s upside. I think he is going to be a .270 hitter with 20-home-run power. He is out there in way too many leagues, and he should be owned in at least 12-team mixed leagues.

Surprise, surprise! – Yan Gomes was the big winner last night going 3-for-5 with two home runs, two runs and four RBIs. In 55 plate appearances, Gomes has a .302/.309/.642 slash line and a .340 ISO. The K% is half of what it was from last season, but he only has one walk. Gomes doesn’t get enough playing time for 12-team mixed leagues to be relevant, but he is a guy to keep an eye on if more playing time opens up. He could have value, especially as a catcher.

Here comes the heat – Shh! Don’t look now, but Evan Longoria is very quietly having a career year. The big knock has always been health, but we are 190 plate appearances in and Longoria is still kicking it. Last night, he continued his 14-game hitting streak going 2-for-4 with a run and two RBIs. He has a .331/.395/.580 slash line along with a .250 ISO. While I don’t think Longoria is going to win the MVP like I predicted at the beginning of the year, he could find himself in the discussion by the end of the season.

Left out in the breeze – Someone had to be on the end of that smack down that Corbin had and it is none other than Carlos Gonzalez. Having an 0-for-4 night with three strikeouts helps no one. I’m not worried about it. CarGo has been money in the bank. An 0-for-off-night is nothing to worry about.

Who’s trending? – Jurickson Profar is trending and he should be. He’s a very good prospect at a pretty weak position. I don’t believe Ron Washington when he says that Profar and Leury Garcia will split time. The Rangers need to know if Profar can stick. If he rakes, they will find a way for him to stay up and that is a fact. I don’t think I am risking it in a 10-team mixed league that’s a non-keeper, but every other league I am picking him up. Got to love that upside!

Bench me, please? – Is it time to start worrying about Todd Frazier? Last night he was 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, giving him a .224/.306/.395 slash line on the season. K% is up however F-Strike% of 58.6 as well as SwStr% of 11.4 are both down from last season. Another couple numbers that jump out a bit is his O-Swing% of 32.4 is down from last season from last season’s 34.3 and his O-Contact% of 59.5 is way down from last season which was 65.7. It seems as though Frazier is not being aggressive enough at the plate. In my opinion he is a buy-low from this point forward.

The Streamer – Jose Fernandez is legit people — 9.0 K/9, 1.16 WHIP, 3.48 ERA, 3.44 FIP and 3.44 xFIP. He is taking on the Phillies who, by all accounts, have a bottom-five offense. Deploy with confidence!

The post Fantasy Daily: Patrick Corbin, Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

The Texas Rangers could benefit from having Shin Soo Choo’s bat in their outfield.

Nelson Cruz misses a play here, David Murphy struggles there, the bullpen and rotation are overworked (and continued to get hit), and multiple players are taking turns on the disabled list. It’s never too early to start thinking about the holes the Texas Rangers can fill when the July trade deadline comes around.

While Cruz isn’t going to be taken out of right field, especially the way he’s been hitting the ball the first two months of the season, but you can do something about the left-field spot, currently occupied by the aforementioned Murphy, as well as Jeff Baker, who rotates in every now and again.

They also can upgrade what will almost certainly become a depleted, and tired, bullpen. Michael Kirkman isn’t pitching well and hasn’t all season, Derek Lowe was designated for assignment, Joe Ortiz has been figured out by most hitters and Joe Nathan hasn’t exactly been automatic in his closing attempts this season.

The only two guys who have been anything near consistent for manager Ron Washington have been right-hander Tanner Scheppers and left-hander Robbie Ross. Question is: How long will that last?

Here are just a few players to keep your eyes on as the deadline gets closer. It’s only the first version and it is subject to change over the next two months.

Outfielders

Shin-Soo Choo, Cincinnati Reds

• Free agent after this season.
• Career .312 hitter against RHP, .244 against LHP.
• Career .304 hitter with RISP, .400 with RISP and two outs.
• Delivered a 2.4 WAR last season.

My take: He’s at the top of my list for a reason: He’s the most likely player, and the Texas Rangers have been interested in the past. Do the Rangers try to acquire him in July or do they wait for him to become a free agent? If I’m the Texas Rangers, and I know I could use him in the lineup, I don’t wait on this kind of player.

Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins

• Eligible for arbitration in 2014; one-year contract for 2013 is $537,000.
• Currently on the 15-day DL with strained right hamstring; hitting .227 with three home runs and nine RBIs.
• Career .268 hitter; .266 against RHP, .275 against LHP and .251 with RISP.

My take: This seems to be the guy a lot of Texas Rangers fans want and for good reason. Stanton is coming off back-to-back 30+ home-run seasons and would be under team control for years to come, allowing the Texas Rangers to build a solid foundation of young players in their organization. While he’s off to a slow start this season, it in no way takes away from what this young man can do. With the offseason drama the Marlins went through, there’s little question that Stanton might be able to flourish with a team that cares about its players and the organization as a whole. The lone problem with acquiring the 23-year-old outfielder is what it would cost Texas to make this deal happen. It would need to start with Jurickson Profar along with some of the best prospects the Rangers have to offer. Whether or not Jon Daniels and company are willing to do that will make or break any chance they have of bringing Stanton to Arlington.

Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox

• One year at $12.5 million with a $13.5 million club option,  $1 million buyout)
• Career .277 hitter against RHP, .284 against LHP.
• Career .278 hitter, including .283 with runners on, .281 with RISP.
• Delivered a 4.1 WAR last season.

My take: After a down year in 2011 (.227/13/44) Rios came charging back with a tremendous 2012 season (.304/25/91) and looks well on his way to matching those numbers this season. He’s a veteran outfielder who has American League experience both with the White Sox (currently) as well as with the Toronto Blue Jays. Can bring power to the lineup and give protection in the lineup to guys like Cruz, Adrian Beltre and Lance Berkman, not to mention A.J. Pierzynski, who is familiar with his former White Sox teammate.

Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers

• Four years and $67.5 million left on his deal, plus $17.5 million club option and a $2.5 million buyout).
• Career .309 hitter against RHP, .239 against LHP.
• Career .288 hitter, including .286 with RISP and .296 with runners on.
• Delivered a 3.0 WAR last season.

My take: There have been rumors in the past about the Dodgers being open to trading Ethier. But with the amount of money left on his contract, I don’t think he’s a likely candidate to end up with the Texas Rangers.

At this point in the season, the Texas Rangers are lucky to have the type of lead they have over the rest of the AL West division. Is that mostly because the rest of the division, especially the Los Angeles Angels, is just plain terrible, or are the Rangers playing above anyone’s pre-season expectations?

The outfield should be a concern for this team especially heading toward the trade deadline. They’ve gotten big-time offensive output from Cruz, but his lackluster defense might become a problem when it’s needed the most (see game six of the 2011 World Series). No matter how many home runs he puts up, it’s the one play he doesn’t make that could make the biggest impact. While there’s no way the Rangers take him out of right field, I do believe they have to address the left-field spot, especially offensively.

Murphy isn’t the best defensive player nor is he the fastest. You have Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry currently platooning center field, so that position is plugged up. I think the Texas Rangers need to look outside the organization to acquire a guy they can put in left field who not only makes them better defensively but also gives them another threat in the lineup. As much as I like Murphy, he just isn’t that guy for the remainder of the season, especially heading toward an important pennant run. Not unless his just-over-.200 average skyrockets, though if the last week is any indication, he’s doing just that.

Relief pitchers

Tyler Clippard, RHP, Washington Nationals

• Arbitration eligible for two more years.
• Currently 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA;  one earned run in his last 10.1 innings pitched.

My take: What’s interesting about Clippard are his season splits so far. At home, through eight relief appearances (7.0 IP), he holds a 5.14 ERA. His major problem is walking far too many batters (eight in seven innings). Away from home, through nine relief appearances (9.0 IP), he’s actually been a lot better. He holds a 1.00 ERA and has held opposing batters to a .077 batting average, along with 11 strikeouts to just three walks. Clippard is eligible for arbitration two more times before becoming a free agent, so he may not be the easiest piece for the Texas Rangers to acquire.

Sean Marshall, LHP, Cincinnati Reds

• Signed a three-year contract of $16.5M on 2/27/2012 that pays $4.5 million this season, $5.5 million in 2014 and $6.5 million in 2015, plus $1 million annually based on starts and $1 million annually based on games finished.
• Currently 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA and .174 batting average against.
• Has a career .220 batting average against facing left-handed hitters (703 batters faced).

My take: Marshall is a guy I’ve been watching since he came up with the Chicago Cubs and was transitioned from a starter to a more-than-effective left-hander out of the bullpen. He was traded from the Cubs to the Cincinnati Reds on 12/23/2011. In his first season with the Reds, Marshall held opposing left handed hitters to a .173 average, striking out 34 while walking just four. Ross has been a solid left-hander for the Texas Rangers, but with the struggles of Kirkman, and hitters figuring out young Ortiz, the Rangers need to find a left-hander out of the bullpen they can count on. It doesn’t hurt that Marshall stands 6’-7” which looks more like Randy Johnson standing on the mound.

Is Bruce Chen a possible target for the Texas Rangers? (Leon Halip/Getty Images)

Bruce Chen, RHP, Kansas City Royals

• Free agent after this season.
• Currently 2-0 1.88 ERA (14.1 IP out of the bullpen).
• Before facing the Yankees on May 10, Chen had not given up a single earned run (11.2 IP).
• Can be a long reliever or spot starter if you need one.

My take: Bruce Chen is not a guy a lot of people would look at, but I think the Royals have found something by moving him into the bullpen. His ERA was over 5.00 as a starter, but he’s been a solid reliever when called upon. He could be a cheap acquisition at the trade deadline, and he would give the Texas Rangers another solid arm in the bullpen, especially if you need a guy for more than just a single inning of work. He might not be high on a lot of lists, but Texas needs more than just three solid guys in the bullpen. Now that Lowe has been designated for assignment, there’s one fewer long reliever for Washington to call on.

When the season first started, the Texas Rangers rotation, as well as their bullpen, was among the best in baseball. Now, almost two months into the season, injuries are starting to take their toll, as well as the amount of work that has been put on guys like left-hander Ortiz, right-hander Scheppers, left-hander Kirkman, left-hander Ross, and closer Nathan. Lowe was designated for assignment by the club to make room for Josh Lindblom who started against the Oakland A’s Monday night in place of Alexi Ogando, who was put on the 15-day disabled list late last week.

The Texas Rangers have been lucky to get big-time run support lately. Even with Derek Holland struggling against the Detroit Tigers, his offense stepped up and put up big runs against the Tigers’ pitching staff, not to mention the beating they threw on Justin Verlander a few days earlier.

But, with Ogando, Matt Harrison, Colby Lewis, Joakim Soria and Neftali Feliz on the disabled list, along with Ian Kinsler who joined the ranks early Sunday afternoon, you wonder how long this run of luck can keep up. Can the Texas Rangers offense continue to put up the kind of runs it’s going to take to keep them in games in case the rotation and bullpen don’t exactly have their best nights?

Can Scheppers and Ross continue their dominance out of the bullpen, or will the amount of work put on them of late finally take its toll?

There are a lot of questions with this team and holes they may need to fill, especially if Harrison, Lewis and Feliz don’t come back at all this season.

This is just the first version I’ll write leading up to the trade deadline in July. There are only a few players on this list for right now, but you expect that list to grow, and change, as July 31 gets closer.

The post Scooping the Texas Rangers: ‘Tis the season to be traded appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

Things are looking up for Chris Young now that he should see increased playing time. (Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

Below are players you should consider adding to your fantasy teams. The percentages listed next to each player are the ownership percentage in NFBC leagues. Also, all the data is up until May 18.

Chris Young, OF, Athletics, 52 percent: Saturday, Chris Young came off the DL from a strained quad and played in right field. The opening day starting right fielder, Josh Reddick, is still on the DL with a strained right wrist with no timetable for his return. It’s possible Reddick could play during the Athletics next homestand, but it seems unlikely at this moment. As an aside, I’m really worried about Reddick. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up having wrist surgery and misses the rest of the year. With Reddick out, Chris Young becomes the everyday right fielder. I wasn’t buying Chris Young in the preseason, not because of his skill set, but I didn’t know how he was going to get the 500+ at-bats necessary to be fantasy relevant for mixed leagues. When healthy, which he appears to be, Chris Young is a perennial 20/20 player and most importantly, is going to get every day at-bats at least for the next two weeks.

Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Mariners, 38 percent: Gutierrez quietly began his rehab assignment in triple-A Tacoma a few days ago and could be back in the majors any day. Having played only 148 games the past three seasons, Gutierrez has earned the injury-prone label, but I believe bad luck has been his problem. In 2011, he had stomach problems that went untreated in the offseason. Then, after a torn oblique muscle ended his 2011 season three weeks early, Gutierrez tore a pectoral muscle during a routine throwing drill and was sidelined more than two months. The Mariners will try to ensure his health the rest of the year by playing him mostly in right field. His skill set is very similar to Chris Young in that, if he’s healthy, he has 20/20 upside. Fantasy owners should temper expectations and be ecstatic he’s a 15/15 player the rest of the year.

Lucas Duda, OF, Mets, 80 percent: With Ike Davis’ struggles at the plate, the Mets are going to need to find a cleanup hitter. Duda is the best option available. What about John Buck? After his great three weeks to begin the season, Buck has a slash line of .176/.274/.311. There are issues with Duda’s approach at the plate, which makes him easily exploitable. His biggest problem is he’s trying to pull every pitch to right field. Like saves, RBIs are a function of opportunity rather than skill. With David Murhpy and David Wright hitting second and third, if Duda can hit like he did to begin the year, he should drive in a lot of runs.

David Phelps, SP, Yankees, 59 percent: With Ivan Nova still bothered by an inflamed right tricep, Phelps’ spot in the Yankee rotation seems secure at least for the next two weeks. What I like most about Phelps is the ability to miss bats. This year he’s striking out a little more than one batter an inning and is generating ground balls 50 percent of the time. For more detailed information checkout my piece I wrote a few days ago.

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Tyler Chatwood has helped the Rockies stay in contention. (Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports)

Having survived a three-week batting slump, where the team couldn’t seem to score unless it was on a home run, the Colorado Rockies are trying to get more consistent at the plate, and it’s working.

Three weeks into the season, the Rockies went 13-4 with a succession of series sweeps and consecutive wins, yet they’ve posted a 10-14 record since. They held first place most of April but have since lost their grip on it. Luckily, the Rockies are only two games out of first in the NL West, despite recent inconsistencies.

Trying to gain lost ground, the Rockies won two in a row against the San Francisco Giants and are only one game behind them in the division. Pitching has been a big part of of the success as the lineup went through a cold spell in scoring. In for injured Jeff Francis, Tyler Chatwood has been a prominent part of the Rockies’ recent wins, both on the mound and at the plate; he scored three runs on three hits in one of his outings.

Troy Tulowitzki has been solid and Carlos Gonzalez found his way out of a slump himself. Walt Weiss’ team is finding themselves again despite injuries to the productive Michael Cuddyer and the struggling Francis. The Rockies have a deeper team after calling up returning faces such as Charlie Blackmon and Josh Outman while getting a killer effort from Jonathan Herrera.

The Rockies had a slump, but it appears they may have found the key to getting out by combining their best efforts in pitching and hitting to scratch out some wins. Constantly swinging for the fences produces some highlights, but there is nothing wrong with getting some well-placed, in-the-park hits. Solo home runs aren’t as valuable as a one-run single, or a slow-looping gap single for two runs. The hits will come, but the Rockies have to remain patient at the plate and stop trying to hit a home run every at-bat. Gonzalez leads the team in strikeouts but also leads in home runs … while Tulowitzki leads the team in RBIs and patience.

The hits will come and the season is long. Save some for later.

The post In the Rockpile: Patience, depth help Rockies climb toward first appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

Oswaldo Arcia is making a name for himself in the Twin Cities. (Jerry Holt/StarTribune)

There’s a brand new slugger from Venezuela on the horizon these days, and he resides at, of all places, Target Field in Minneapolis. Scouts have compared his raw power to that of countryman Miguel Cabrera, and he’s a bad-ball hitter in the mold of Pablo Sandoval. The youngster’s name is Oswaldo Arcia, a diamond in the rough but destined for fame. And his bat is one reason why the Minnesota Twins are off to a surprisingly decent start.

Oswaldo Arcia, at 6′-0″ and 220 pounds, isn’t quite as big as Cabrera and Sandoval, and he plays corner outfield instead of third base. According to the Twins veteran manager Ron Gardenhire, Arcia was promoted from the minor leagues in mid-April only due to team injuries and other circumstances. In the first 30 days of his big league career, however, the youngster compiled a slash line of .301/.338/.507, including four doubles, a triple and three home runs. Only Joe Mauer had similar numbers over that stretch, and the Twins superstar is impressed.

“He’s very young but he has good at-bats,” notes Mauer in describing  Arcia. “He knows when to juice the ball and when to take what the pitcher gives him.”

Oswaldo’s bat has cooled off a bit in recent games, and he’s made a couple of mistakes on defense. But this rookie, who just turned 22, continues to work hard and has a confident swagger about him. And that hasn’t gone unnoticed.

“Arcia isn’t up here just to show us what he’s got,” notes Gardenhire. “We already know about the power. The kid takes Kirby Puckett-type swings.”

The discovery of Arcia, a home-grown product like celebrated third-base phenom Miguel Sano, is somewhat out of character for the conservative Minnesota front office. With the exception of Francisco Liriano, Alexi Casilla and David Ortiz (before he became “Big Papi”), very few Latino players have donned the Twins uniform in recent years. And that’s always disturbed me, in light of the fact that Rod Carew, Tony Oliva and Camilio Pasquel were legends in the land of 10,000 lakes.

Now, infielders Pedro Florimon and Eduardo Escobar, outfielder Wilkin Ramirez and southpaw hurler Pedro Hernandez perform for the home folks, in addition to Arcia. There are also more Hispanic hopefuls in the minor-league pipeline besides Sano, which is definitely a great sign for the future.

So, I say kudos to general manager Terry Ryan, and welcome him to the 21st century. And I wish the best of luck to Oswaldo Arcia, who has already become a fan favorite on and off the field.

More Latinos on the rise

Another team that has raised some eyebrows thus far is the pesky Pittsburgh Pirates, thanks in part to their sophomore (barely) left fielder Starling Marte. The 23-year-old Dominican has become an offensive machine for the Bucs, currently hitting .314 with a pair of triples, five bombs and 10 stolen bases. As the lead-off guy, Marte is successfully setting the table for fellow outfielders Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata, turning the Pirates into scarey, legitimate contenders in the National League Central.

Speaking of that division, did you know that the Chicago Cubs top four farm prospects are Latino players?
Here’s the list:

Javier Baez, shortstop (Puerto Rico)
Albert Almora, outfield (Cuba)
Jorge Soler, outfield (Cuba)
Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (D.R.)

Other top Hispanics with their respective organizations include:

Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves (Colombia)
Francisco Lindor, shortstop, Indians (Puerto Rico)
Avisail Garcia, outfielder, Tigers (Venezuela)
Carlos Correa, shortstop, Astros (Puerto Rico)
Yasiel Puig, outfielder, Dodgers (Cuba)
Jose Fernandez, RHP, Marlins (Cuba)
Wily Peralta RHP, Brewers (D.R.)
Oscar Tavares, outfielder, Cardinals (D.R.)

All these players are 22 years old or younger, and many already have made a major impact in the major leagues. Possibly the most notable is Jose Fernandez, 20, who has been one of the few bright spots for the hapless Marlins this season. Fernandez grew up in Santa Clara, Cuba, where his father is imprisoned by the Castro regime. Jose, along with his mother and sister successfully defected in 2008 and settled in Tampa, Florida.

Fernandez was drafted out of high school in the first round of the 2011 amateur draft (14th player overall) by the Marlins and agreed to a $2 million signing bonus. The 6′-3″, 240-pound right-hander has been impressive as a rookie on a bad team, racking up a 2-2 record as a starter with a nifty 3.48 ERA, and averaging one strikeout per inning pitched.

Obviously, the struggles and success of Jose Fernandez is a feel-good story that I will cover in depth in the weeks to come.

The post Oswaldo Arcia leads new trend in Twins baseball appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

David Ortiz has made fantasy owners proud since returning to the lineup. (Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

Taking a look around the league, here’s a recap of last night’s action and suggestions for your fantasy baseball team.

Mr. Clutch (pitcher) – It’s a pitchers dream to face Miami, and last night was a perfect example of it. Brandon McCarthy, who has struggled most of the season, had a complete-game shutout, allowing three hits and two walks while striking out five. He still has a 4.74 ERA, but his FIP of 3.57 and xFIP of 3.73 point to a pitcher that could turn it around this season. The time to pick McCarthy up is now.

Mr. Clutch (hitter) – David Ortiz was brilliant again last night going 3-for-4 with two home runs, six RBIs, three runs and a walk. It is amazing what he has done so far. Big Papi is putting up numbers he hasn’t put up since 2007. If David Ortiz keeps on chugging, he could be a buy-low guy.

Surprise, surprise! – Hector Gimenez, who has 35 plate appearances all year long, went nuts last night. He went 4-for-5 with a home run, three RBIs and two runs. Needless to say, he is not worthy of a pickup in any league. Generally, backup catchers are not owned in any format.

Here comes the heat – Was last night the start that gets Kris Medlen on the right track? He went 7.0 innings allowing two hits, a run and three walks while striking out five. Medlen did not factor in the decision last night, and his record still stands at 1-5. I think if you own Medlen, you should be looking to flip him after this start. His 3.02 ERA is solid, but the 4.62 ERA, 4.70 xFIP, .257 BABIP and 79.2 LOB% all point to a guy who could be much worse that what he has already been. Sell high!

Left out in the breeze – Jim Johnson, for the second time in a row, has a blown-save loss. This time, it came against Tampa  when he allowed three hits, five earned runs and two walks. I still believe in Johnson, and if you are in need of saves, this could be a very nice opportunity to buy low from a panicked Johnson owner.

Who’s trending? – Jon Jay has been very hot this month and is batting over .400. If you own Oscar Taveras, this has to be rough news, because now you need an injury for the Cardinals to call him up. Jay has been a nice source of runs and RBIs. Don’t expect many steals or home runs. That is not in Jay’s game.

Bench me, please? – The shine has worn off Nolan Arenado and his batting average has now dipped to .243. Last night against the Giants, he was 1-for-4 with a run scored. The talent is there, but he is still very raw. With only three walks in 77 plate appearances, Arenado is definitely going to struggle but has the ability to be a good keeper at a weak position.

The Streamer – I’m taking the youngster, Jeff Locke against the Astros tonight. He’s 3-1 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. There is a lot to like about Locke, and with him taking on the Astros, he is a perfect streaming candidate.

The post Fantasy Daily: David Ortiz, Brandon McCarthy, Kris Medlen appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

The 2013 MLB draft is now just over two weeks away with the first round to be held on June 6. This is the eighth in a series of prep players who have impressed recently, either improving their stock or proving the hype is for real. Here are 10 players, in no particular order, whose stock is on the rise:

Rob Kaminsky has been showing three plus pitches this season. (USA Today)

Rob Kaminsky, LHP, St. Joseph HS (NJ)

On Saturday, the 6’-1” southpaw struck out 12 over five shutout innings, allowing one hit in a 10-0 win over Demarest. He improved to 8-0 over eight starts with a 0.18 ERA, 0.49 WHIP and has a whopping 107 strikeouts to just four walks over 51 innings. He already had a plus mid-90s fastball and maybe the best curveball in the draft. Lately, he has shown a plus change-up, as well, making him a highly desirable pick come June 6.

Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood HS (WA)

The 6’-1” left-handed hitter has not struck out in his last 70 plate appearances. Over 25 games this season, he is hitting .419/.546/.770 and has drawn 21 walks to just two strikeouts. He has 11 doubles, three triples, three home runs and has added nine stolen bases. For all of the talk about his plus defensive abilities, including an arm that is becoming legendary, the kid can stroke it at the plate and has shown a great approach at the plate. Mix that with a high character and he should hear his name called in the first 15 picks in the 2013 MLB draft.

Denton Keys, LHP, Rye HS (CO)

The ridiculous season of Denton Keys continued on Saturday as the 6’-3” southpaw struck out 12 more over five innings in an 11-1 win over Yuma HS. He did give up an earned run — his first of the year — and now has a 0.21 ERA, 0.44 WHIP and 109 K/9 BB over 43 innings for a 22.8 K/9 ratio. His team has outscored its opponents 237-22 over 19 games, so, apparently, everyone who can play baseball in Colorado plays for Rye high school. Nevertheless, the kid has talent, including a fastball in the 89-92 mph range.

Cody Thomas, OF, Heritage HS (TX)

The 6’-5”, 220-pound left-handed hitter is most likely going to Oklahoma where he should be the next great Sooner quarterback. However, if a team can woo him away from school with a big enough bonus, they might have a ridiculous talent on their hands. Enormous power and a very good approach at the plate, Thomas is also a very good athlete with surprising speed for his size. He has been absolutely destroying the baseball this season, hitting .487 over 39 games with 16 doubles, three triples, 15 home runs, 54 RBI and has stolen 15 bases. He has also drawn 27 walks for a .592 OBP/1.060 SLG.

Phil Bickford, RHP, Oaks Christian HS (CA)

On Friday, the 6’-4” flame thrower picked up the win in relief tossing four shutout innings, striking out five to no walks in a 1-0 win over San Marino HS. If you throw out his second start of the season, in which he allowed four runs over six innings, he has a 0.41 ERA, 0.55 WHIP and 110 K/9 BB over 65.1 innings, allowing just 27 hits. His fastball is plus and can touch 96 mph. His secondary offerings are solid, but with his size, there is so much projection left. He should be gone on day one of the 2013 MLB draft and could go as high as pick 12-15.

Corey Ray, OF, Simeon HS (IL)

The 5’-11” left-hander just keeps mashing the baseball. On Friday, he went 2-for-3 with a double, triple, two RBI, two walks and a stolen base as Simeon beat Lane Tech — my old stomping grounds — 10-5 in the Public League playoffs. Over his last 11 games, he is hitting .485 with four doubles, four triples, two home runs, 14 RBI and has stolen 12 bases. He has also drawn 12 walks for a .630 OBP/1.030 SLG. A quick-twitch athlete who can play all three outfield positions due to his strong arm and speed, Ray has been flashing his five-tool ability at the right time.

Nick Ciuffo, C, Lexington HS (SC)

The 6’-1” left-handed hitter may be the best defensive catcher in the 2013 MLB draft and he has a chance to go in the top 20 picks as he has been showing great offensive potential this season. He had a 25-game hitting streak earlier in the year and, over 33 games, is hitting .453/.541/.705 with seven doubles, five home runs, 33 RBI and has drawn 21 walks to just six strikeouts. He also fits the mold as a clubhouse leader and is one of the more competitive players you will see.

Rowdy Tellez, OF/1B, Elk Grove HS (CA)

The 6’-4”, 225-pound left-hander has put up gaudy numbers all season. Over his last 14 games, however, he has taken it to another level. He has gone 23-for-39 (.590) over that span with 10 doubles, five home runs, 26 RBI and has drawn 13 walks to zero strikeouts for a .709 OBP/1.231 SLG. A lot like Chicago Cubs prospect Daniel Vogelbach, Tellez has enormous power from the left side but also has a great approach at the plate and rarely gets cheated. There has been talk about him possibly being selected in the first round of the 2013 MLB draft, but he shouldn’t last past the second.

Travis Demeritte, 3B, Winder-Barrow HS (GA)

The state of Georgia has some insane talent his season and Demeritte is among the best. The 6’-1” right-hander is a plus defender at the hot corner with his strong arm, range and instincts. He also has excellent bat speed and some serious raw power. Over 24 games this season, he hit .404 with seven doubles, 12 home runs, 37 RBI and drew 33 walks to 11 strikeouts for a .563 OBP/.910 SLG. A high-character kid who is a good bet to be selected on day one of the 2013 MLB draft.

Matt McPhearson, OF, Riverdale Baptist HS (MD)

Maybe the best leadoff-type hitter in the 2013 MLB draft, the 5’-10” left-hander has blazing speed (6.19/60) and knows how to steal bases. As a junior, he went 68-for-72 in stolen bases attempts over 39 games. This year, he hasn’t quite swiped bases at the rate he did last year as he has battled a nagging hamstring, but he still has gone 26-for-29 over 23 games. He also has improved his swing and is hitting .484 with seven extra-base hits, 23 RBI and has drawn 19 walks for a .602 OBP/.613 SLG. He isn’t going to hit for a lot of power but he can get on base and wreak havoc once he gets on.

Feel free to follow me on Twitter at @DanMKirby for 2013 MLB draft updates, prospect news and Chicago Cubs ramblings.

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Matt Kemp’s bat definitely appears to be broken for fantasy owners. (Victor Decolongon/Getty Images)

Taking a look around the league, here’s a recap of last night’s action and suggestions for your fantasy baseball team.

Mr. Clutch (pitcher) – Chris Sale has really found his stride. Against the Angels last night, Sale pitched 7.2 innings, allowing two hits and a walk while striking out 12, which was a season high. He has not allowed a run in over 20 innings, and the question now is where does he rank among starting pitchers? His average draft rank was 16th, behind R.A. Dickey, and according to ESPN’s player rater, he has been the ninth-best pitcher for the season behind Shelby Miller. If we were to redraft today, I am slotting Sale ninth behind Yu Darvish, Adam Wainwright and Matt Harvey, but ahead of guys like Matt Cain, Cole Hamels and Jered Weaver, who were originally in the top 10.

Mr. Clutch (hitter) – Another player we need to reevaluate is Paul Goldschmidt. He continued to crush last night, going 4-for-5 with two home runs, four RBIs and four runs. Goldschmidt is only behind Jean Segura on the ESPN’s player rater for the season, but his average draft position was 74, eighth among first basemen. If we were to redraft today, I am putting Goldschmidt as the second first basemen off the board, only behind Prince Fielder. I am generally worried about Votto and his lack of power this season. Goldschmidt has risen above the young first basemen (Freddie Freeman, Eric Hosmer, etc.) to become a genuine top-10 fantasy player going forward.

Surprise, surprise! – Are we ready to live in a world were Eric Chavez is legit? Last night against the Marlins, he went 4-for-5 with a home run, four RBIs and two runs. On the year, he has a .337/.398/.584 slash line with five home runs, 18 RBIs, 14 runs and one steal. For a waiver-wire pickup, he has definitely returned a very good value. Going forward, he is definitely going to regress a bit (.362 BABIP vs. .288 career BABIP), but as long as they are playing him everyday, he should be a solid option. The only thing that concerns me is the lefty/righty splits. He’s batting .354 against right-handed pitching and .200 against left-handed pitching.

Here comes the heat – Adam LaRoche continued his torrid streak last night, going 2-for-4 with two home runs, four RBIs and two runs. He extended his hitting streak to 14 games and has his batting average all the way up to .226, which tells you how awful he started out the season and why he was dropped in so many leagues. He has been one of the hottest players in fantasy right now. In the last 15 days, LaRoche is 13th on ESPN’s player rater. He was drafted as the 16th-best first baseman, and I am ready to sneak him into the top 10 if we redrafted today. What I am saying is he should be owned in more than 68 percent of leagues. That number should be 100 percent by Monday.

Left out in the breeze – Matt Kemp continues to struggle and last night was no different. Against the Braves, Matt Kemp went 0-for-5 with two strikeouts. Matt Kemp has a .273/.320/.344 slash line which is decent, but not from a player taken in the top 5 in most drafts. We are now 600+ plate appearances past his magical 2011 season. The power has been nonexistent, and while he is stealing more than last year, it is nowhere near the 40-steal pace from 2011. I was all in this year on Matt Kemp, and even though his 2.6 percent HR/FB rate should normalize to his career average of 16 percent, I still do not think he is a top-10 fantasy player anymore.

Who’s trending? – What is in the water in Tampa? The revived James Loney has been one of the hottest pickups in the past week and for good reason. Last night, Loney was 2-for-4 with two runs and an RBI. He is putting up career numbers across the board, and for a guy who could never hit lefties (career .255), he is batting a whopping .419! While he is not going to produce many home runs or steals, he’s still giving you excellent value and is a must-own in 12-team mixed leagues.

Bench me, please? – The past two seasons really raised the bar for Josh Willingham, but this year has been rough and last night was no different. Against Boston, he went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. While the OBP has been solid this season (.367), you did not draft this guy to just get on base, you drafted this guy to hit home runs. With five on the year and a dismal .198 ISO, Willingham has reverted back to 2010 Josh Willingham, and with the eventual DL stint coming, and you know it is coming, I would sell this guy now.

The Streamer – I’m taking Hector Santiago against the Angels tonight. Every year, there is the reliever stretched out to a starting pitcher who gives you top-30 value. Santiago is quietly becoming that guy. Keep an eye out for him.

The post Fantasy Daily: Chris Sale, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Kemp appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

Ike Davis owners are feeling the pain, too.

“They’ll start making some mistakes, and I’ll start hitting some homers.”

This is a quote from Ike Davis in The Star-Ledger back in early April when asked about his 4-for-27 slump.¹ After reading this, I began to realize targeting and drafting him was huge mistake, but I wanted to wait until a larger sample was accrued before rushing to judgment. The season is approximately a quarter of the way through, and I’ve reached my conclusion.

Ike Davis is like the really hot girl who finally agrees to go on a date with you after many, many requests. After agreeing on a specific time and location, you are filled with excitement and, therefore, attempt to put your best foot forward before the date — you get your haircut, wash your car, buy a new shirt, the whole nine yards. However, that excitement quickly dissipates at the dinner table as you realize she’s the carbon copy of Derek Jeter; her beauty is stunning, but she has nothing interesting to say. As you stare at your dinner plate, it hits you: You realize you would have had a more interesting evening watching a Charlie Kaufman film² in your apartment with your cat as your date.

Like all Ike Davis owners, I saw an undervalued player with an extremely high fantasy ceiling. During all my drafts, I augmented my roster to mitigate Davis’ weaknesses, specifically drafting two high run-scoring and batting-average players (Norichika Aoki, Austin Jackson, Martin Prado and Alex Gordon). My offensive roster was constructed perfectly, and at the conclusion of the draft, I knew I was going to crush my opponents. Or so I thought.

As of May 15, Ike Davis had a slash line of .169/.261/.288, which is eerily similar to the slash line he had at this point last year: .164/.221/.303. As the 2012 season progressed, Davis went on to salvage his season, hitting 27 home runs with a slash line of.247/.333/.511. It was this performance that convinced me the .188 BABIP to begin the year was the cause for his struggles, and there’s no way his luck will be that bad again.

I’ve watched the majority of his at-bats this year, and I have little room for optimism that he can turn it around. Pitchers are successfully exploiting the holes in his swing and his approach at the plate. In April, it was breaking balls on the outside of the plate, which resulted in a lot of strikeouts via the swing and miss or the look of befuddlement as the ball hit the catcher’s mitt. The reason why he didn’t hit the outside pitch was he was lunging at the ball. Specifically, bending his front leg forward and altering his center of mass³ to the front leg, which resulted in his bat dragging through the zone, creating weak contact. It’s important to note he had the same problem last year, but he fixed it by spreading out his feet in his batting stance.

In addition to outside pitches, he’s now having problems with fastballs up and in, near the letters. The end of result of these pitches is either a swing and miss or foul ball back to the screen. The reason why this is happening is he’s still lunging at the ball, and he’s not getting his hands in the zone quick enough to make solid contact. Compare and contrast (below) where the bat is when it makes contact with the fastball on the inner half of the plate. In 2012 his hands were deeper in the strike zone and his body more parallel to the pitcher.

5/15/2013

8/16/2012

Since Ike Davis has reverted back to the old habits he displayed at the beginning of last year, it’s no surprise he’s striking out nearly 30 percent of the time (a career high). I’ve attempted to address the mechanical issues on pitches on both halves of the plate, but let’s look at it statistically. The table below shows the slugging percentage, by year, on pitches on various pitch locations. Please note that he only had 149 plate appearances in 2011 so the small sample size caveat applies.

The post Fantasy insight: Is it time to sell Ike Davis? appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

The 2013 MLB draft is now less than three weeks away with the first round to be held on June 6. This is the seventh in a series of prep players who have impressed recently, either improving their stock, or proving the hype is for real. Here are 10 players, in no particular order, whose stock is on the rise:

Brett Morales set a school record with 17 strikeouts in his last start. (perfectgame.org)

Brett Morales, RHP, King HS (FL)

In his last start on May 10, the 6’-3” right-hander struck out a school-record 17 batters over seven innings, allowing one run on three hits. He is now 11-1 over 13 starts with a 0.58 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 117 K/20 BB over 78 innings. He can touch 95 mph with his fastball, with good sink to it, and he has one of the best change-ups among prep players in the 2013 MLB draft, sitting in the upper-70s with late fade and deception. He adds a developing 12-6, mid-70s curveball and knows how to mix his pitches well.

Corey Ray, OF, Simeon HS (IL)

Over his last 10 games, the 5’-11” left-hander has gone 14-for-30 (.467) with three doubles, three triples, two home runs, 12 RBI and has stolen 11 bases. He has also drawn 10 walks for a .610 OBP/.967 SLG. He has excellent bat speed and can spray the ball to all fields. His above-average speed and strong arm allow him to play all three outfield positions, and he has great instincts in the field. The Midwest doesn’t get a lot of attention when it comes to prep baseball, but Ray’s abilities should get him drafted in the top-three rounds. Committed to Louisville.

Jacob Heyward, OF, Eagle’s Landing HS (GA)

Jason Heyward’s younger brother, Jacob has been living up to the family name by putting on a clinic lately. Over his last 17 games, he is hitting .432 with six doubles, six home runs, 29 RBI and has stolen six bases. He also has drawn 15 walks and been hit by a pitch six times for a .621 OBP/1.023 SLG. Not as highly touted as Jason, the 6’-2” right-hander has a lot of upside of his own. He has been clocked at 6.83 in the 60, his arm at 86 mph in the outfield and he has raw developing power. Committed to Miami.

Hunter Harvey, RHP, Bandys HS (NC)

The 6’-3” right-hander was sensational in his last start, striking out 17 over eight shutout innings, allowing one hit in a 1-0 win over North Lincoln. For the year, he now has 116 K/17 BB over 54.2 innings, allowing just 23 hits. His 19.1 K/9 ratio shows how futile opposing prep hitters are against his mid-90s fastball and mid-70s plus curveball. He is the son of former big league closer Bryan Harvey.

Josh Hart, OF, Parkview HS (GA)

While Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows grab most of the attention in Georgia this year, Hart’s Parkview team is the only one of the three still in the post season. The 6’-2” left-hander has been the main reason for his team’s success. Over his last 12 games, he is hitting .526 (20-for-38) with three doubles, four home runs, 16 RBI and eight walks for a .632 OBP/1.026 SLG. A great athlete, his plus speed (6.49/60) and strong arm play well in centerfield. He also has some of the best bat speed in the 2013 MLB draft and more power should come as he matures. Committed to Georgia Tech.

Jordan Paroubeck, OF, Serra HS (CA)

Over his last seven games, the 6’-2”, 190 pound switch-hitter has gone 12-for-24 (.500) with three doubles. two home runs, nine RBI and has drawn six walks for a .613 OBP/.875 SLG. Over 30 games this season, he is now hitting .415/.540/.787 with 12 doubles, seven home runs, 30 RBI and has stolen 12 bases. Paroubeck is a quick-twitch athlete with excellent bat speed and raw power from the left side, although he makes good enough contact from the right side to remain a switch-hitter. He also has a plus arm and enough speed to play all three outfield positions. Committed to Fresno State.

Ryan McMahon, 3B, Mater Dei HS (CA)

The 6’-3”, 200-pound left-handed hitter has been the best player on the best team in the nation this season. Over his last six games, he has gone 7-for-16 (.438) with four extra-base hits, eight RBI and has drawn six walks to no strikeouts for a .609 OBP/.938 SLG. He is now hitting .420/.495/.753 over 26 games with 32 RBI. He is the type of player whose power is going to come fast, and he should be a high-average run producer at the next level. Defensively, many think he will be a plus defender due to his athleticism, soft hands and instincts. Committed to USC.

Logan Shore, RHP, Coon Rapids HS (MN)

A 6’-2” right-hander whose fastball sits 90-93 mph, he also adds an above-average curveball and still has a lot of projection left. He tossed seven shutout innings in his last start on May 13, striking out four to no walks. The baseball season starts later than other states due to the cold weather in Minnesota, so Shore has only had a chance to appear in four games. Over those four starts, he is 4-0 with a 1.03 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 51 K/15 BB over 43.2 innings. He has good command of his pitches, good mound presence and a high character. Committed to Florida.

Thomas Milone, OF, Masuk HS (CT)

The 6’-1” left-hander has been showing off his plus speed (4.3/40) as the weather warms up in Connecticut. Over his last five games, he has swiped 13 bases and now is a perfect 22-for-22 in just 13 games. He has also gone 9-for-19 with eight walks to just one strikeout for a .679 OBP over those five games. He has shown a very good approach at the plate and, mixed with his speed, projects to a top-of-the-order hitter. He hasn’t shown much power but could develop more as he matures. He is also a wide receiver and is committed to play both sports at Connecticut.

Chris Kohler, LHP, Los Osos HS (CA)

The 6’-3”, 200-pound southpaw tossed a seven inning no-hitter on May 8, striking out eight to one walk. He now has 93 K/28 BB over 60 innings. His fastball can reach 90 mph, but it sits comfortable in the 86-88 range with nice sink. There is a lot of room for added velocity once he works on his mechanics and fills out more. His curveball is his best pitch, a mid-70s looper that he can locate for strikes or use as a chase pitch. His change-up has nice tailing action and sits in the upper 70s. He has a great feel for pitching and commands his pitches well. Committed to Oklahoma.

Feel free to follow me on Twitter @DanMKirby for 2013 MLB draft updates, prospect news and Chicago Cubs ramblings.

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Jeff Samardzija delivered a strong eight innings last night for fantasy owners.

Taking a look around the league, here’s a recap of last night’s action and suggestions for your fantasy baseball team.

Mr. Clutch (pitcher) – Jeff Samardzija outpitched everyone last night going 8.0 innings allowing five hits, two runs and two walks while striking out seven. Jeff Samardzija has not taken the leap like everyone expected, but he has improved his ERA and strikeout rate. However, his BB/9 has gone up from 2.89 last season to 3.34 this season. Jeff Samardzija may struggle from game to game, but he will continue to provide a good source of strikeouts.

Mr. Clutch (hitter) – Shin-Soo Choo had a monster game last night, going 4-for-5 with two home runs, two RBIs and three runs. He has been all that and a bag of chips since coming to Cincinnati via trade this winter and should continue to play this way seeing how he is in a contract year. With a .322/.465/.589 slash line and a .267 ISO, this is easily a career year for Choo. Yearly leagues, I would enjoy the ride. Keeper leagues, I would look to sell high.

Surprise, surprise! – Adam Dunn rose from the ashes last night, going 3-for-4 with two home runs, five RBIs, two runs and a walk. Dunn continues to be a good source of home runs, but he kills your batting average like Dwight Howard kills your FT%. Dunn will reach 30+ home runs this season but may bat under .200 doing it.

Here comes the heat – After struggling early in April, Jason Kipnis has found his groove in May. Last night, Kipnis was 3-for-4 with one home run, three RBIs, three runs and a walk. The .236/.303/.472 slash line is just okay, but the ISO of .236 has been a strength for Kipnis this season. He should reach 20+ home runs and 30+ steals this season, and if he can hit above .250, he should be one of the top-ranked second basemen in the league.

Left out in the breeze – Getting rocked and straining a tricep is not what David Price owners wanted to wake up to today. Joe Madden already has stated that Price will miss his next scheduled start and will be further evaluated Thursday. Price’s value may not get much lower than what it is now. The window to lowball your league mates for Price will only be open for a short time.

Who’s trending? – Zack Greinke owners were treated to a surprise return last night. Greinke looked very sharp going 5.1 innings allowing five hits and a run while striking out four. He is a must-start going forward, and Greinke should give you top-20 pitching value from here on out.

Bench me, please? – After his ownership spiked to almost 90 percent during his tear last week, Ryan Raburn came back down to earth this week capped off by an 0-for-4 with one strikeout performance. He is still owned in nearly 50 percent of leagues and that number should continue to regress. Raburn is a deep AL-only guy.

The Streamer – After a rough couple of starts, owners hit the panick button and dropped Andy Pettitte. After a mechanical adjustment, Pettitte looked strong against Kansas City and now gets the Mariners at home. The only pause for concern is his home-road splits. Pettitte has a 2.63 ERA on the road and a whopping 5.71 ERA at home. Even with that, it’s the Mariners whose offense ranks in the bottom third. Deploy with confidence!

The post Fantasy Daily: Jeff Samardzija, Shin-Soo Choo, Jason Kipnis appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

All signs point to Daniel Murphy being a solid waiver pickup. (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Below are players who have been dropped in at least of 14 percent of ESPN leagues that you should consider adding to your fantasy team.

Daniel Murphy, 2B, New York Mets: Daniel Murphy was my favorite second-basemen/middle-infield option in the preseason because his talent level¹ was being undervalued by the fantasy community, which manifested itself as he was going as the 22nd second basemen in NFBC leagues. During the first 3-4 weeks of season, he put up a slash line of .329/.371/.512, but since then, he’s been in an enormous slump, hitting .185/.214/.241. Consequently, he’s been dropped in 30 percent of ESPN leagues. If he’s been dropped in your league, go get him. He’s on pace for 97 runs, nine home runs, 74 RBI, zero stolen bases and .272 batting average. Since 2011, in 1,180 plate appearances, Daniel Murphy has a .299 batting average, which means his batting average is bound to improve as the season progresses.

Kyle Lohse, SP, Milwaukee Brewers: Of all the players who have been dropped, I was most shocked to see Lohse. Fantasy owners expecting a repeat of last year’s performance will be disappointed, because when his career is over, 2012 will likely be the outlier career year. The fantasy owners who dropped him were probably expecting more than a 3.49 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. However, he’s striking out 17.1 percent batters and only walking only 2.8 percent of batters, both career highs. StatCorner, prior to this season, rated Miller Park as the second-best ballpark for home runs, so it’s natural his baseball card statistics would experience a decline compared to his last two seasons in St. Louis. However, with the increased strikeout rates and lower walk rates, it looks as though Lohse is adapting to his new home ballpark.

Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers: Weeks is another player I was very high on entering fantasy drafts because his talent level was being undervalued by the fantasy community. However, so far, he’s looked worse than Robert Pattinson’s acting². Last year, Weeks started off slowly, only hitting .199/.314/.343 before the All-Star break, before rebounding with a typical Weeks statistical slash line of .261/.343/.457. With a current slash line of .181/.302/.276, it’s easy to say this is another slow start, but let’s see if there’s room for optimisim. His .253 BABIP is easily the lowest of his career and his HR/FB rate of 10 percent is the lowest it’s been since 2008, so those statistics are bound revert back to back to his statistical mean. However, he’s striking out 28 percent of the time, which is three percentage higher than last year. What’s the most troubling is he’s hitting ground balls 56.8 percent of the time, 12 percentage points higher than his career norm. With the increased strikeout rate and ground balls, his batting-average ceiling (the rest of the season) may be .225-.240, but he’s hit 20 home runs the past three seasons and plays in one of the best hitter ballparks in the majors.

The post Fantasy pickups: Daniel Murphy, Kyle Lohse, Rickie Weeks appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

These films are designed as entertainment thrill rides for moviegoers of all ages with the single purpose of making the studios very rich – or very richer. Sure, they want the public to be entertained, but they only want that so you’ll tell your friends to go buy tickets.

It’s these blockbusters that seem to be the most hit-and-miss of films. What started out as a good idea two or three years prior has gone through so many tweaks and changes and “notes” that it’s unlikely that the movie they are releasing even vaguely resembles the original idea. The comedy My Stepmother Is an Alien started off as a dark story about child abuse.

Because so much money is spent on these films, this is where we’ll find all the most notable film flops in history. Nobody cares if a $20 million romantic comedy dies at the box office (right, Katherine Heigl?). But when a studio spends $250 million to bring us John Carter and it only makes $75 million, heads will roll!

In baseball, the budgets of teams vary as widely as the budgets of studio films. Teams like the Rays and Athletics are at the bottom of the list in the romantic comedy range, while the Yankees, Dodgers and Tigers are in the blockbuster action/adventure range.

And there’s the Astros, who are in the range of quirky indie films that no one really “gets” except for that one guy who works at the coffee shop, who doesn’t bathe and might actually be homeless, and who won’t shut up about the film’s existential layering and deeper social meaning – and all you can do is nod and half-smile because you really don’t want him to do something weird with your latte.

So far this baseball season, there have been some very disappointing starts for teams who were expected to do better – but who, more importantly, spent a lot of money. Let’s take a look at how these teams stack up to the all-time great movie flops.

Honorable Mention — Chicago Cubs

It almost seems unfair to include the Cubs because everyone expected they would be terrible, and they are being just that. But did you know their payroll is $107 million this season? For that kind of money, they deserve to get kicked around a little. Eddie Murphy’s The Adventures of Pluto Nash cost a fortune to make, and everyone expected it would be terrible and it was just that. A comedy adventure set in outer space that was neither a comedy nor an adventure – filled with half-assed effort and corny schtick. Apparently, in space, no one can hear you laugh, either.

The studio actually waited two years to release this steaming pile of galactic crap in the hopes they could find the perfect window where audiences might be fooled into paying to see it. But it didn’t work – no one showed up. However, it doesn’t matter what the team puts out on the field, Cubs fans will always come out and put up with half-assed effort and corny schtick.

Toronto Blue Jays

With a payroll of $118 million, the Blue Jays are a living example that fantasy baseball team management and real-life baseball team management aren’t quite the same thing. Toronto spent the offseason acquiring top-priced name talent to make a run at the World Series and, so far, they’re just floundering around in last place. The film Town & Country had a similar thought process: Let’s put Warren Beatty, Diane Keaton, Goldie Hawn and Garry Shandling on screen together and watch the money flow like maple syrup over pancakes.

It’s not really clear why this movie bombed, but I assure you that bomb it did. Where that cast would have worked about 15 to 20 years prior, maybe audiences weren’t too thrilled about seeing an ambiguously titled romantic comedy starring 50-somethings. Toronto has about $35 million worth of players on the disabled list, and maybe this team is also an example of casting that would have worked a few years prior.

Chicago White Sox

You might want to sit down for this or, if you’re already sitting down, maybe lower your chair a couple inches just to get a lower center of gravity. Did you know that the last-place White Sox have the eighth highest payroll in baseball this year? Yep! Just a few dollars short of $120 million. And for which players?! Quick, name the best player on the White Sox. You can’t, because there is no best player on the White Sox – just a bunch B-list veteran players who as a whole are grotesquely overpaid. Have you ever heard of the movie The 13th Warrior? Sort of, right? And I know you can’t even guess who the lead actor was.

It may not be memorable to you, but studio accountants know this film as one of the biggest financial flops in movie history. With a budget of almost $90 million, the only “star” they put in here was Antonio Banderas. That’s it. One B-list actor and literally no one else you have ever heard of. Guess what! It bombed. I’m telling you, there’s some producer walking around with $50 million in his bank account that he embezzled from this film. Meanwhile, the White Sox have easily an extra $50 million in player salaries that executive VP Kenny Williams has allowed to be embezzled during contract negotiations.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (in Orange County, California, USA, Earth)

When the season started, I felt the team to beat in this division was still the Texas Rangers, but I also thought that the Angels were almost guaranteed a wild card playoff spot. Here we are six weeks into the season and the Angels look awful, and if it wasn’t for the Astros being in their division, they would be in last place. So they get an honorary last place label. Kevin Costner’s The Postman is a classic movie bomb in that they spent way too much money on it, made some strange casting choices and audiences just weren’t really in the mood for a meandering post-apocalyptic epic mess.

I actually kind of like this movie and my friend Brian says it’s one of his favorites – though his man-crush on Costner is bordering on restraining order. Some of the story and characters leave something to be desired, but there are a lot of interesting little pieces in this film and it may someday yet grow to be thought of as one of the not terrible films of our time. The Angels have all the pieces they need. Sure, some of the players leave something to be desired, but this team may someday yet grow to be a playoff contender.

Philadelphia Phillies

This is the only team on this list that isn’t in last place (pipe down, Angels fans!), but of all of these teams, the Phillies are by far the biggest disaster. They have a losing record, but they also have a $170 million payroll loaded with dumb contracts that are almost entirely complete wastes of money. And that brings us the Cutthroat Island. This is one of the greatest financial disasters Hollywood has ever seen. Like the Phillies, they had a very questionable cast. Matthew Modine! Geena Davis! I mean, have either of them ever made you actually want to go see a movie?

After years of making a fortune in distributing films, the company that put the film together – Carolco – actually got put out of business by this unbrilliant piece of swashbucklery. Philly fans can only hope that the mounting pile of roster mistakes will eventually put GM Ruben Amaro out of business.

Los Angeles Dodgers

If we’re talking about movies, then it’s a perfect fit that the L.A. team is the biggest of all the flops this season. The Dodgers have a Yankees-dwarfing payroll of $220 million, and what it’s gotten them is a cozy seat in the basement of their division. For that kind of money, anything less than a division title is an absolute disaster. And that brings us to our final film – Heaven’s Gate. It’s not the biggest disaster dollar-for-dollar, but this film is considered the gold-standard for going bust.

There was so much “expected” from this film and so many people were anticipating its arrival. However, questionable casting, a confusing story and a budget that spiraled out of control all combined to underwhelm a nation. Ever since the Dodgers got rid of Frank McCourt, the team has been spending on players like … um … well, the McCourts on themselves. The Dodgers have $66 million worth of players on the disabled list – that’s more than the full payroll for five other teams. And as the budget for this team spirals out of control, a nation remains underwhelmed.

Wrap it up, Jed!

There are six divisions in baseball and five of them have a team in last place (come on, Angels fans, you’re just embarrassing yourselves) that is paying over $100 million to its players.

The good news for these teams is that, yes, it’s only six weeks into the season and a lot can happen. Some blockbuster bombs go on to moderate success in DVD rentals or foreign markets that are less picky about what they watch. John Carter made almost $150 million overseas and that is a really not good movie.

Heck, even Heaven’s Gate has grown to be considered by some as a misunderstood masterpiece. But that took decades and these baseball teams don’t have that kind of time. So, now is when they need to knuckle down and leave it all on the set or stage or baseball field – or the whole season will have been for nothing.

Well, until the sequel.

The post Breaking Balls: Blockbusters that blockbusted appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.

Pleasant surprises, like Vidal Nuno, are a reason to get excited about the New York Yankees. (Getty Images)

There is a sense of fun around the New York Yankees that I haven’t felt in quite some time. This group of guys has no quit in them, they’ve inspired fans to rally around them and they’re a total pleasure to watch. With so many stars on the disabled list, expectations were low at the start of the season, but this cast of second chances and young unprovens have played their hearts out to rise atop the AL East. Some fans are even concerned that things may go pear-shaped once all the All-Stars return to the line up.

I’ve been thinking a lot about why, in a season when everything has seemingly gone wrong, the New York Yankees have made it go right. Here’s what’s been working:

The starting pitching. While the pitching hasn’t been perfect, it’s been pretty darn good. CC Sabathia, even with his reduced velocity, is still the anchor of the rotation, although Hiroki Kuroda has the best numbers on the staff (a 1.05 WHIP, five wins and hitters are batting a measly .217 against him). Andy Pettitte continues to defy father time and Phil Hughes has gotten his groove back. While Ivan Nova is still nursing injuries, David Phelps has filled in nicely. It all begins with the pitching, and if you’ve got quality starters giving you quality starts, that’s half the battle.

Young guys getting a chance. The New York Yankees went from being one of the oldest teams in baseball to getting an infusion of youth thanks to, well, the old guys breaking down. Catcher Austin Romine, infielder Corban Joseph, and relievers Adam Warren and Preston Claiborne are all homegrown players who are making the most of their call-ups.

Then there’s the feel good story of Vidal Nuno. The 25-year-old lefty was pitching in an independent league when a New York Yankees scout signed him to minor league deal in 2011. He made his first start of the season on Monday and earned his first big-league win, pitching five scoreless innings. His only other MLB appearance was two weeks ago when he pitched three scoreless innings in relief. Let’s hope we see more of Nuno in the future.

Production from the unexpected. I admit (happily) that I was wrong about Vernon Wells. He has reclaimed his pre-ridiculous-contract form. Lyle Overbay seems to be on a mission to prove the Red Sox were wrong to cut him. Plus, I have to admit watching a first baseman who doesn’t consistently hit into a shift has been nice.

With Curtis Granderson returning from the DL, I wasn’t sure who would be the odd man out. Wells continues to swing a mean bat and Ichiro has returned to form. However, the news that DH Travis Hafner will have an MRI on his shoulder means the timing of Granderson’s return was excellent. Hey, we knew Hafner was going to break down at some point.

Also, I know he’s currently on the DL, but Kevin Youkilis has won me over so thoroughly that I really hope Alex Rodriguez stays sequestered for the rest of the season, which brings me to …

No A-Rod. The three-ring circus that is Mr. Rodriguez has been a non-factor this season thanks to the hip surgery that will keep him out at least through the All-Star Break. Sure, A-Rod and the allegations of his PED use are still in the news, but with the third baseman on the DL and out of the clubhouse, his off-field antics are not a constant distraction to his teammates and New York Yankees fans. We can actually focus on, you know, the team and its on-field performance.

This is Robinson Cano’s team. Cano has been the lone marquee name in the line-up. He’s risen to the occasion, putting up his typical All-Star stats: .306 BA, .895 OPS and 10 home runs. Here’s hoping the New York Yankees and Jay-Z (Cano’s new agent) can keep him in pinstripes as he should be the heir apparent to Derek Jeter for the face of the franchise.

Chemistry is a word that gets bandied about a lot in sports. I’m usually dubious of proclamations one way or another about team chemistry, especially from those of us outside the clubhouse. Yet this year, Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi really seem to have stumbled upon the magic formula.

The post Why the New York Yankees are a joy to watch appeared first on Through The Fence Baseball.