This time of the year, I’m in full-on hoops mode. I have four NBA games on my computer, and I have college hoops on my flat screen. And then I see this trade … more like the trade of the offseason. So, of course I felt like it needs to be broken down for fantasy purposes, so let’s dive in.
First off, the deal:
Toronto gets: Emilio Bonifacio, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, John Buck, Billy the Marlin, a couple accountants, two goats and Jeffrey Loria’s (in my best Borat voice) sister.
Miami gets: Yunel Escobar, Jeff Mathis, Henderson Alvarez, Jake Marisnick, Adeiny Hechavarria, Anthony Desclafani, Justin Nicolino and some money left on the nightstand.
Let’s get the Toronto end of the deal out of the way, because it doesn’t take a genusis to figure out who won this trade in the short-term. Bonifacio and Reyes get an immediate bump in their projected value for next season due to the hitters ballpark, the fact Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion will bat behind them, and they will get pitching signals from center field (I couldn’t help myself). Go ahead and bump up the RBI totals of Bautista and Encarnacion, too. This could be a magical 2013 season for the Blue Jays.
Johnson should get more wins, but in retrospec,t his WHIP and ERA will go up due to playing in a tougher league. Buehrle is what he is, and I don’t think the league change will affect his value too much. Buck should replace Mathis as part-time catcher.
Jumping to the more interesting side of this trade is what Miami got back from this apparent salary dump. Escobar should see a decline in value due to the decline in talent batting around him and the ballpark. Mathis should get a slight bump in value because he should get around 300 AB next season, though I would hardly consider him relavent.
Alvarez is the real winner of this trade. He’s out of the American League and moving into a spacious stadium that will benefit his style of pitching. Is it too early to start the sleeper buzz for Alvarez? Can I drive the bandwagon? Wins will be at a premium, but he should be a nice late-round grab.
Marisnick and Hechavarria should not be factors next year but are nice pieces for the future. Hechavarria is more pro-ready but will be blocked from major playing time by Escobar. Marisnick struggled with double-A pitching last season but is still a big time prospect, however, he is still a couple years away.
Both Desclafani and Nicolino are very young and a bit too raw to make any judgment on at this point. Nicolino has the better stuff right now, and we should keep an eye out for this guy sooner rather than later. The bigger question is are we going to see some of the Marlin’s top pitching prospects next year? They are super young but could be forced to move through the farm system a bit faster than normal.
My final take away from this trade is this has to be the first part of a bigger plan for Miami. Could they put a trade together to go out and get Justin Upton? Could they make another splash in free agency and make massive offers to Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke? Is the ownership group trying to incite the taxpayers to burn the stadium down so they can move to another city? This massive trade has a lot of working parts that need an entire offseason to analyze. In the end, who knows what the hell just happened or what Miami is planning, but all I know is Stanton, as well as Stanton owners, are just pissed, plain and simple.
