Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 15

 

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change.

Top Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
1	Matt Harvey	NYM	@SF, @PIT	2.27	29.8%	5.7%
2	Max Scherzer	DET	@CLE, TEX	3.08	31.1%	5.8%
3	Justin Verlander	DET	CWS, TEX	3.54	24.8%	8.6%
4	Felix Hernandez	SEA	BOS, LAA	2.69	26.5%	4.9%
5	Homer Bailey	CIN	@MIL, @ATL	3.57	25.0%	5.9%
6	Shelby Miller	STL	HOU, @CHC	2.80	26.8%	6.0%
7	Mike Minor	ATL	@MIA, CIN	3.15	23.9%	5.3%
8	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	COL	1.93	25.0%	6.5%
9	Adam Wainwright	STL	HOU	2.36	22.6%	2.5%
10	David Price	TB	HOU	4.65	22.7%	5.4%
11	Stephen Strasburg	WSH	@MIA	2.24	24.6%	7.8%
12	Cliff Lee	PHI	WSH	2.73	23.2%	4.1%
13	A.J. Burnett	PIT	NYM	3.12	27.0%	9.6%
14	Madison Bumgarner	SF	@SD	3.08	24.2%	7.5%
15	Yu Darvish	TEX	@BAL	2.78	33.2%	8.1%
16	Cole Hamels	PHI	WSH, CWS	4.38	22.4%	6.9%
17	CC Sabathia	NYY	KC, MIN	4.06	20.7%	5.1%
18	James Shields	KC	@NYY, @CLE	3.23	21.3%	7.0%
19	Chris Sale	CWS	@DET	2.79	27.2%	5.7%
20	Jordan Zimmermann	WSH	@PHI	2.46	18.0%	3.6%
21	Gio Gonzalez	WSH	@PHI	3.14	23.7%	9.8%
22	Ervin Santana	KC	@NYY	2.84	20.2%	5.0%

Additional Information: Cole Hamels is scheduled to pitch against the White Sox and Nationals, the 28th and 30th ranked offenses, respectively, in terms of OPS against lefties; fantasy owners could not get a better weekly matchup. As of now, Matt Harvey is expected to pitch next Sunday, the last game of the week before the All-Star break. If he does in fact pitch on Sunday, he will not be eligible to pitch at the All-Star Game. Since the All-Star Game is in New York (Citi Field), it makes too much sense for the Mets to not throw Harvey on Sunday and allowing him to start the game. In the last 30 days, the Yankees are 29th in the majors in OPS, making them a great streaming option.

Backend Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
23	Matt Garza	CHC	@CWS, STL	3.46	22.0%	7.6%
24	Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	BOS, LAA	2.60	22.4%	3.9%
25	Zack Greinke	LAD	@ARI, COL	4.30	17.3%	8.0%
26	Julio Teheran	ATL	@MIA, CIN	3.23	21.1%	4.5%
27	Bartolo Colon	OAK	@PIT, BOS	2.78	13.7%	3.1%
28	Anibal Sanchez	DET	CWS	2.75	30.4%	6.9%
29	Mat Latos	CIN	@ATL	3.03	23.8%	6.6%
30	Jose Fernandez	MIA	WSH	2.72	25.1%	8.8%
31	John Lackey	BOS	@OAK	2.82	22.1%	5.0%
32	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	KC	2.95	17.6%	4.9%
33	Patrick Corbin	ARI	MIL	2.49	19.5%	6.6%
34	Jeff Samardzija	CHC	LAA	3.55	24.6%	8.4%
35	Dillon Gee	NYM	@SF	4.45	19.8%	6.1%
36	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	@ARI	2.82	19.7%	8.1%
37	Matt Cain	SF	NYM	4.85	22.2%	7.4%
38	Lance Lynn	STL	@CHC	3.75	24.1%	8.9%
39	Jered Weaver	LAA	@SEA	3.78	18.0%	6.1%

Additional Information: Matt Garza, in his last starts, is striking out nearly 24 percent of batters while only walking 6.8 percent of batters, resulting in a 0.90 ERA and WHIP. Overall, he’s maintained his strikeout rate (22 percent) compared to the last two years while reducing the usage of the slider, his best secondary pitch. Even though he’s throwing the fastball more, he’s throwing it less often for strikes (4 percent than the last two years) and is generating a lower swing-and-miss rate (15 percent less than the last two years). Combine all that with a .255 BABIP for the year, Garza has been getting lucky and isn’t this good. However, with a start against the free-swinging White Sox, Garza is a great option this week. Jose Fernandez, in his last six starts, has a 1.34 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. With Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison in the lineup, the Marlins are scoring runs, which allows Fernandez a great opportunity to win some games. Having already pitched 92.2 innings he only has 60-70 innings before he’s shut down. Last night, I originally had Matt Cain in the backend of my top 20 because had a very impressive five starts in a row — 1.82 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. However, after seeing him get blasted by the Dodgers last night, I had to drop him. I try to avoid overreacting to one start, good or bad, but it’s the way he looked. He couldn’t throw the ball for strikes, and when he did, those pitches found barrels.

Spot Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
40	Tyler Chatwood	COL	@SD, @LAD	2.75	16.4%	7.8%
41	Kris Medlen	ATL	CIN	3.11	17.1%	6.2%
42	Doug Fister	DET	TEX	3.80	18.3%	3.7%
43	C.J. Wilson	LAA	@SEA	3.50	21.1%	9.5%
44	Matt Moore	TB	MIN	3.65	22.8%	12.6%
45	Ricky Nolasco	MIA	ATL, WSH	3.85	19.2%	5.3%
46	Eric Stults	SD	COL, SF	3.70	15.1%	4.8%
47	Tim Hudson	ATL	@MIA	4.22	17.3%	6.9%
48	Paul Maholm	ATL	CIN	3.81	16.7%	6.1%
49	Chris Tillman	BAL	TEX	3.68	19.5%	9.1%
50	Rick Porcello	DET	CWS	4.82	19.1%	4.9%
51	Dan Straily	OAK	@PIT	4.52	19.3%	7.5%
52	Corey Kluber	CLE	KC	4.33	22.5%	4.7%
53	David Phelps	NYY	KC, MIN	5.01	20.9%	8.9%
54	Jon Lester	BOS	@SEA, @OAK	4.41	19.2%	8.3%
55	Phil Hughes	NYY	MIN	4.55	19.6%	6.5%
56	Scott Feldman	BAL	TEX, TOR	3.43	18.3%	6.3%
57	Kyle Lohse	MIL	CIN, @ARI	3.43	15.9%	4.1%
58	Ian Kennedy	ARI	LAD, MIL	5.16	20.4%	8.4%
59	Tommy Milone	OAK	@PIT	4.11	17.7%	5.4%
60	Bud Norris	HOU	@STL	3.22	16.6%	7.6%
61	Justin Masterson	CLE	TOR	3.78	24.5%	9.2%
62	Jarrod Parker	OAK	BOS	4.11	16.8%	8.4%
63	Francisco Liriano	PIT	OAK	2.20	25.4%	9.3%

Additional Information: Doug Fister has pitched a lot better than his baseball card statistics would indicate. He’s generating ground balls 57 percent of the time, second most among starting pitchers with at least 10 starts and is only walking 3.7 percent of batters, seventh best among starters. If you can get him at a discount, you should buy right now. In seven home games, Eric Stults has a 2.85 ERA and 0.87 WHIP compared to a 4.31 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in road games this year. With two starts at home against the struggling Giants and overrated Rockies, add him to your roster right now. Francisco Liriano is scheduled against the Oakland Athletics, the fourth best offense in terms of OPS against left handed pitching. Liriano is missing a ton of bats, but he’s not going to continue to sport a 6.4 percent HR/FB rate the rest of the year. Bud Norris has been a pleasant surprise this year, but there are some major red flags. His strikeout rate has decreased five percentage points compared to last year, and his ground ball rate isn’t large enough to sustain his 3.22 ERA. Also, his 5.5 percent HR/FB rate is going to regress eventually. The Astros should trade him sooner rather than later while his value is at his highest.

Proceed With Caution

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
64	Tony Cingrani	CIN	@MIL, @ATL	3.40	28.7%	9.7%
65	Joe Kelly	STL	@CHC	3.86	18.5%	6.8%
66	Ryan Dempster	BOS	@SEA	4.11	22.1%	10.8%
67	John Danks	CWS	@PHI	4.38	18.0%	2.5%
68	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	MIN	4.67	19.6%	5.7%
69	Mike Leake	CIN	@MIL	2.73	15.6%	5.0%
70	Derek Holland	TEX	@BAL, @DET	3.13	23.2%	6.3%
71	Jeremy Hefner	NYM	@PIT	3.54	18.0%	6.8%
72	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	@ATL	3.50	13.2%	4.6%
73	Andrew Cashner	SD	COL	3.82	15.9%	6.7%
74	Andy Pettitte	NYY	KC	4.40	17.8%	7.0%
75	R.A. Dickey	TOR	@BAL	4.59	16.8%	8.6%
76	Gerrit Cole	PIT	OAK	3.94	12.9%	4.0%
77	Jorge De La Rosa	COL	@SD	3.19	16.5%	8.0%
78	Jeff Locke	PIT	OAK, NYM	2.12	16.8%	10.7%
79	Jacob Turner	MIA	ATL	2.30	16.1%	7.0%
80	Wade Miley	ARI	MIL	4.29	17.6%	8.3%
81	Stephen Fife	LAD	COL	2.83	21.2%	6.7%
82	A.J. Griffin	OAK	BOS	3.95	19.4%	5.8%
83	Jhoulys Chacin	COL	@SD, @LAD	3.74	14.0%	7.5%

Additional Information: Many forget Joe Kelly was a serious contender to win the fifth spot in the Cardinals rotation over Shelby Miller. Kelly has pitched extremely well in long relief and has a plus fastball that sits in the mid-90s that allows him to miss a ton of bats. Since he hasn’t been stretched out, he may only be able to pitch 5-6 innings, limiting his opportunity to earn a win, but he’s facing the struggling Cubs. Derek Holland has pitched great, but with two brutal matchups against the Tigers and Orioles, fantasy owners are better served with leaving him on your bench. With a FIP of 3.89, Stephen Fife isn’t as good as the numbers would indicate. However, he can miss enough bats, generates ground balls nearly 50 percent of the time and most importantly, is pitching in L.A. In Jeremy Hellickson’s last four starts, he has a 1.38 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and a 23 percent strikeout rate and 7 percent walk rate. There weren’t many bigger fans of Hellickson than me this preseason, but I want to see two or three quality outings before he’s a must start.

Avoid

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
84	Josh Johnson	TOR	@CLE, @BAL	4.90	21.5%	8.0%
85	Jose Quintana	CWS	@DET, @PHI	3.69	18.7%	7.2%
86	Travis Wood	CHC	LAA, STL	2.69	18.5%	7.6%
87	Hector Santiago	CWS	CHC, @PHI	3.49	24.8%	11.3%
88	Joe Blanton	LAA	@CHC	5.14	19.0%	4.1%
89	Randall Delgado	ARI	LAD, MIL	3.67	22.3%	3.6%
90	Chris Archer	TB	MIN, HOU	4.17	18.6%	13.0%
91	Roberto Hernandez	TB	MIN, HOU	4.95	18.2%	5.1%
92	Ross Detwiler	WSH	@PHI, @MIA	4.04	12.3%	4.4%
93	Nathan Eovaldi	MIA	WSH	2.00	14.5%	8.7%
94	Kyle Kendrick	PHI	WSH	3.59	14.8%	5.7%
95	Chad Gaudin	SF	@SD	2.60	19.1%	8.4%
96	Robert Erlin	SD	SF	–	–	–
97	Tyler Skaggs	ARI	LAD	3.64	22.0%	7.0%
98	Felix Doubront	BOS	@SEA	4.11	21.6%	10.2%
99	Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	TOR, KC	4.67	22.7%	12.7%
100	Tim Lincecum	SF	NYM, @SD	4.67	23.1%	9.8%
101	Edwin Jackson	CHC	STL	5.75	19.8%	8.5%

Additional Information: Tyler Skaggs pitched really well Friday night against the Rockies. Before the year began, I wasn’t as high on Skaggs because the lack of a quality third pitch (change-up). In order to be a successful starter a pitcher needs to have at least three quality pitches to get through a lineup three times. On Friday, his change-up flashed plus, generating swings and misses 71.4 percent of the time. If he can continue to develop the change-up, he could easily be a top 40-50 fantasy starting pitcher. Chris Archer has an electric arm, and I was extremely disappointed when he didn’t make the big-league club after spring training because I thought he was ready to contribute at the major-league level. However, in seven starts this year, Archer has been less than stellar, having trouble throwing strikes consistently and walking batters 13 percent of the time. However, if you are in need of strikeouts and can afford a hit to your WHIP, roll the dice with Archer because he will not have as good of matchup again.