Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 13

Cliff Lee appears to be staying in Philly. (Drew Hallowell/Getty Images)

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Fantasy baseball owners, please be aware the matchups are subject to change.

Top Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
1	Cliff Lee	PHI	@SD, @LAD	2.53	22.9%	4.0%
2	Yu Darvish	TEX	@NYY, CIN	2.84	34.2%	7.7%
3	Chris Sale	CWS	NYM, CLE	2.69	25.4%	5.9%
4	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	TEX, @BAL	2.78	16.5%	5.3%
5	Gio Gonzalez	WSH	ARI, @NYM	3.34	24.5%	10.8%
6	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	SF	2.07	25.0%	7.2%
7	Adam Wainwright	STL	@OAK	2.37	23.3%	2.1%
8	Stephen Strasburg	WSH	ARI	2.40	25.1%	7.3%
9	Matt Harvey	NYM	WSH	2.16	28.9%	5.8%
10	Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	CHC	2.26	23.6%	4.2%
11	James Shields	KC	@MIN	2.72	22.5%	7.1%
12	Max Scherzer	DET	@TB	3.08	31.4%	6.5%
13	Justin Verlander	DET	@TB	3.72	27.0%	8.1%
14	Jordan Zimmermann	WSH	ARI	2.26	18.1%	3.6%
15	Felix Hernandez	SEA	PIT	2.71	25.9%	4.6%
16	Homer Bailey	CIN	@OAK	3.75	24.3%	5.9%
17	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	SF, PHI	2.96	21.2%	7.3%
18	Ervin Santana	KC	ATL, @MIN	2.64	20.0%	3.9%
19	Shelby Miller	STL	@OAK	2.09	28.6%	5.7%
20	Jeff Samardzija	CHC	@SEA	3.35	26.9%	8.3%
21	Madison Bumgarner	SF	@LAD, @COL	3.25	25.1%	7.5%
22	Johnny Cueto	CIN	@TEX	3.21	21.1%	7.4%

Additional Information: I’m not worried about Justin Verlander. His strikeout rate (27 percent) is the highest it’s been since 2009, and his swing-and-miss rate is the same as it was the past four seasons. The two biggest differences this year has been his BABIP of .344 and the walk rate (8.1 percent). He’s inducing the same amount of ground balls and fly balls, which leads me to believe the BABIP will regress back to his normal BABIP of .290 the rest of the season. Despite the high baseball card statistics, Homer Bailey quietly has been extremely good. His 3.75 ERA can mislead fantasy owners into thinking he’s been mediocre. Instead, look at his 2.70 FIP (fielding independent pitching), walk rates and strikeout rates. There are only 19 pitchers (with at least 12 starts) who have a strikeout rate greater than 24 percent. Of those 19 pitchers, only three have lower walk rates: Matt Harvey, Shelby Miller and Felix Hernandez.

Backend Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
23	Lance Lynn	STL	@HOU	3.42	24.7%	8.9%
24	Patrick Corbin	ARI	@WSH	2.28	19.7%	6.1%
25	Cole Hamels	PHI	@SD	4.50	22.1%	7.3%
26	Kris Medlen	ATL	@KC	2.96	18.0%	6.3%
27	Jose Fernandez	MIA	MIN	3.05	24.9%	8.9%
28	Julio Teheran	ATL	ARI	3.33	19.0%	4.3%
29	Derek Holland	TEX	@NYY	3.43	22.2%	6.2%
30	Mike Minor	ATL	@KC	2.89	23.8%	5.2%
31	Doug Fister	DET	LAA	3.66	18.8%	3.7%
32	Dillon Gee	NYM	WSH	4.56	19.8%	6.0%
33	Andrew Cashner	SD	@MIA	3.56	17.7%	6.5%
34	Jarrod Parker	OAK	STL	4.30	16.2%	9.0%
35	John Lackey	BOS	COL	3.03	20.5%	5.7%
36	Yovani Gallardo	MIL	CHC	4.09	18.7%	8.0%
37	Bartolo Colon	OAK	STL	2.93	14.5%	3.1%
38	Mat Latos	CIN	@TEX	3.20	22.0%	6.6%

Additional Information: I’ve been resistant to believe in John Lackey, but he’s made himself into a ground-ball machine, generating ground balls 50.4 percent of the time. Among starters with at least 10 starts this year, 26 pitchers have a ground ball rate of at least 50 percent. Of those 26 pitchers, only eight have a strikeout rate greater than 20 percent. One of those pitchers is Lackey. Quietly, Yovani Gallardo has not allowed a run and has a 0.81 WHIP in his last three starts (21 innings). The Baltimore Orioles have second highest OPS in the majors and have the fifth highest OPS against lefties. This isn’t a slam dunk start for CC Sabathia, who has a 4.82 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his last five starts. Even when you remove Cole Hamels’ first two horrendous starts of the year, he still has a 3.73 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 23.3 percent strikeout rate and 7.0 percent walk rate. Hamels has been a little unlucky with his strand rate (69 percent), but all of his other peripheral statistics are basically the same. Hamels is a great buy-low candidate.

Spot Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
39	Rick Porcello	DET	LAA, @TB	4.74	20.4%	4.2%
40	Gerrit Cole	PIT	MIL	3.44	10.8%	1.4%
41	Tyler Chatwood	COL	NYM	2.21	19.2%	8.2%
42	Ricky Nolasco	MIA	SD	3.68	18.5%	6.0%
43	Zack Greinke	LAD	PHI	4.22	16.3%	7.0%
44	CC Sabathia	NYY	@BAL	3.93	20.8%	4.9%
45	Jered Weaver	LAA	@DET	4.64	17.1%	6.9%
46	Zack Wheeler	NYM	@CWS, WSH	0.00	26.9%	19.2%
47	Eric Stults	SD	PHI, @MIA	3.25	16.3%	5.2%
48	Paul Maholm	ATL	ARI	3.57	17.5%	6.6%
49	Travis Wood	CHC	@SEA	2.74	17.7%	7.8%
50	Chris Tillman	BAL	CLE, NYY	3.71	19.0%	8.8%
51	Wade Miley	ARI	@WSH	4.70	17.2%	8.2%
52	Jose Alvarez	DET	LAA	2.45	22.7%	6.8%
53	Kyle Lohse	MIL	CHC, @PIT	3.68	15.4%	4.3%
54	Matt Garza	CHC	@MIL	4.26	21.1%	8.0%
55	Corey Kluber	CLE	@BAL	3.58	24.6%	4.5%
56	Matt Cain	SF	@COL	4.55	22.6%	7.5%

Additional Information: Despite the poor start against the Orioles, I’m not backing off my love for Rick Porcello. He’s striking out 24.4 percent of batters while only walking 4 percent of batters in his last 10 starts. Since April 29, Tyler Chatwood has the second lowest ERA among starters with at least five starts despite calling Coors Field his home ballpark. He walks 8.2 percent of batters, which is too high for a pitcher who only strikes out 19.5 percent batters. This upcoming week he faces the second-worst offense in the league in the Mets. He is a must-start in all formats. Despite the poor matchup, I’m confidently starting Corey Kluber because he misses a lot of bats (24.6 strikeout rate) and his low walk rate (4.5 percent). Jose Alvarez doesn’t have remarkable stuff, but he plays on a high powered offense that faces the Angels, a team that has allowed the second most runs in the majors. So, if you’re looking for wins, Alvarez is someone you should roll the dice with. Despite pitching well recently, Matt Cain in 12 career starts at Coors Field, has a 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

Proceed With Caution

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
57	C.J. Wilson	LAA	@DET, @HOU	3.61	20.6%	9.7%
58	Ryan Dempster	BOS	COL, TOR	4.23	23.4%	10.9%
59	Trevor Cahill	ARI	@WSH, @ATL	3.92	16.4%	8.9%
60	Kyle Kendrick	PHI	@SD, @LAD	3.56	15.0%	6.3%
61	Jon Lester	BOS	TOR	4.58	19.3%	8.4%
62	Josh Johnson	TOR	@BOS	4.38	21.9%	8.4%
63	Tim Hudson	ATL	ARI	4.17	18.2%	6.0%
64	Ross Detwiler	WSH	@NYM	3.33	11.9%	4.1%
65	Justin Masterson	CLE	@BAL, @CWS	3.48	24.2%	9.5%
66	Edwin Jackson	CHC	@MIL, @SEA	5.49	20.4%	8.8%
67	A.J. Griffin	OAK	CIN	3.90	19.0%	5.9%
68	Tommy Milone	OAK	CIN	3.98	18.5%	5.0%
69	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	@OAK	3.13	13.5%	4.3%
71	Dan Straily	OAK	STL	4.98	18.3%	6.5%
70	Esmil Rogers	TOR	@TB, @BOS	3.14	15.0%	7.0%
72	David Phelps	NYY	@BAL	4.01	22.0%	9.6%
73	Andy Pettitte	NYY	TEX	4.20	18.2%	6.3%
74	Hector Santiago	CWS	CLE-2	3.03	23.8%	11.4%
75	Jeff Locke	PIT	@SEA	2.02	17.6%	10.9%
76	Jordan Lyles	HOU	LAA	3.22	18.3%	6.3%
77	Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	@BAL, @CWS	4.67	22.8%	12.2%

Additional Information: Ubaldo Jimenez has a great matchup against the White Sox and a horrible matchup against the Orioles. With a 12 percent walk rate, you’re playing with fire, but it’s possible he provides a lot of strikeouts against the White Sox. In his last three starts, Edwin Jackson has looked like vintage Jackson with a 2.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 21.3 percent walk rate and 8 percent walk rate. With starts against the Ryan Braun-less Brewers and the Mariners, Jackson is a great streaming option. Like most fantasy owners, Esmil Rogers conjures up memories of high ERAs and a lot of home runs allowed, but since joining the Blue Jays rotation he has been surprisingly good. In his last three starts against the Rangers twice and the Rockies, he has 2.04 ERA, 0.85 WHIP with a strikeout rate of 18.2 percent and has only walked four batters in 17.2 innings. Since joining the starting rotation, Rogers has learned a two-seam fastball/power sinker that’s allowing him to be extremely effective because it has heavy sink and excellent movement. If Rogers wasn’t facing the Red Sox, I would’ve ranked him higher, but this is someone you want to add right now in deeper leagues because I’m a believer.

Avoid

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
78	Francisco Liriano	PIT	MIL	2.44	27.0%	9.3%
79	Ian Kennedy	ARI	@ATL	5.21	20.0%	7.9%
80	Mike Leake	CIN	@TEX	2.64	17.0%	5.2%
81	Phil Hughes	NYY	TEX	5.09	20.7%	6.7%
82	Jacob Turner	MIA	SD	2.16	17.6%	9.8%
83	Alfredo Figaro	MIL	@PIT	3.88	18.5%	4.2%
84	Bud Norris	HOU	LAA	3.64	16.1%	7.4%
85	Brandon Cumpton	PIT	@SEA	3.60	18.6%	4.7%
86	Jose Quintana	CWS	CLE-2	3.86	17.3%	7.2%
87	Scott Feldman	CHC	@MIL	3.39	18.2%	7.1%
88	Aaron Harang	SEA	CHC	5.28	21.5%	3.4%
89	Jeremy Guthrie	KC	@MIN	4.20	11.1%	8.4%
90	Dan Haren	WSH	@NYM	5.72	17.8%	3.7%
91	John Lannan	PHI	@LAD	5.48	12.9%	3.5%
92	Joe Saunders	SEA	PIT	4.49	12.2%	7.3%
93	Kevin Correia	MIN	@MIA, KC	3.87	13.0%	3.5%
94	Shaun Marcum	NYM	@CWS	5.77	20.9%	5.9%
95	Nick Tepesch	TEX	CIN	4.84	16.3%	5.9%
96	Matt Moore	TB	TOR, DET	4.13	20.5%	11.9%
97	John Danks	CWS	NYM	5.40	17.5%	2.8%
98	Miguel Gonzalez	BAL	CLE	3.76	17.8%	7.9%
99	Tim Lincecum	SF	@LAD	4.52	22.9%	10.3%
100	Chad Gaudin	SF	@LAD	2.60	19.1%	8.4%
101	P.J. Walters	MIN	KC	3.22	13.2%	6.6%

Additional Information: The last time Matt Moore faced the Tigers he allowed six earned runs in two innings. After watching his last start, I’m passing on Moore unless I’m extremely desperate. The peripheral numbers suggest John Danks has been unlucky with the ERA, but after watching his last two starts I see little evidence of him turning this around. Since May 3, Mike Leake has been great, with a 1.81 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, but he’ll be pitching in one of the best ballparks in the league without a lot of miss-bat stuff against a team that is heating up.