Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 17

 

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change.

Top Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
1	Ervin Santana	KC	@MIN, @NYM	3.06	19.3%	5.4%
2	A.J. Burnett	PIT	STL-2, COL	2.95	25.7%	9.2%
3	David Price	TB	@BOS, SF	3.75	19.7%	3.9%
4	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	@CHC	1.97	25.4%	5.7%
5	Matt Harvey	NYM	@MIA	2.11	29.6%	5.2%
6	Adam Wainwright	STL	@PIT	2.50	22.9%	2.8%
7	Cliff Lee	PHI	ATL	3.05	23.1%	3.9%
8	Yu Darvish	TEX	ARI	2.86	31.8%	8.5%
9	Max Scherzer	DET	CWS	3.14	29.5%	5.8%
10	Jose Fernandez	MIA	CLE	2.74	24.7%	9.3%
11	Homer Bailey	CIN	@SD	3.77	24.8%	5.7%
12	Chris Sale	CWS	@CLE	2.81	27.7%	5.8%
13	James Shields	KC	@MIN	3.09	20.3%	6.9%
14	Zack Greinke	LAD	NYY	3.49	18.4%	7.6%
15	Felix Hernandez	SEA	@BOS	2.34	26.2%	4.5%
16	Stephen Strasburg	WSH	@DET	2.85	25.5%	7.6%
17	Shelby Miller	STL	@CIN	2.76	26.5%	6.7%
18	Madison Bumgarner	SF	@TB	2.93	24.7%	7.1%

Additional Information: Since June 1, Jose Fernandez quietly has been one of the best pitchers in baseball with the second lowest ERA in the majors (1.82 ERA) and a 26 percent strikeout rate. Speaking of June 1, the New York Yankees have the second fewest home runs in the majors (25), nine less the Miami Marlins. The trade for Alfonso Soriano will help add power to the lineup, but his .284 OBP will not greatly improve the offense. Therefore, Zack Greinke is a must start in all formats. The Tampa Rays are playing great baseball in the majors and the San Francisco Giants are clearly struggling and should be sellers at the trade deadline. Madison Bumgarner pitches a great game, but will earn a win.

Backend Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
19	Matt Garza	TEX	LAA, @OAK	2.87	20.9%	6.3%
20	Jered Weaver	LAA	@TEX, TOR	2.97	20.1%	6.3%
21	Jeff Samardzija	CHC	MIL, LAD	3.94	24.0%	9.0%
22	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	@LAD	2.51	17.2%	4.9%
23	Anibal Sanchez	DET	WSH	2.68	27.7%	7.7%
24	Mat Latos	CIN	@SD	3.39	24.0%	7.2%
25	Mike Minor	ATL	COL	2.89	23.5%	5.1%
26	Matt Moore	TB	SF	3.17	23.0%	11.5%
27	Cole Hamels	PHI	SF	4.09	21.8%	6.6%
28	Jordan Zimmermann	WSH	@MIL	3.19	18.4%	4.1%
29	Doug Fister	DET	CWS	3.67	18.3%	4.2%
30	Tyler Chatwood	COL	@ATL	2.48	17.2%	7.8%
31	Andrew Cashner	SD	NYY	3.85	16.7%	7.1%
32	Bartolo Colon	OAK	TOR	2.54	13.8%	3.2%
33	Justin Verlander	DET	WSH	3.99	22.2%	8.6%
34	Julio Teheran	ATL	COL	3.25	20.1%	5.0%
35	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	@CHC	3.25	18.9%	8.1%
36	Brandon Workman	BOS	SEA	4.41	22.8%	5.3%
37	Gio Gonzalez	WSH	@DET	2.97	25.2%	9.8%

Additional Information: I have no idea why Tyler Chatwood is only owned in 27 percent of ESPN leagues. His stuff isn’t good enough to sustain a 2.48 ERA, but it’s definitely good enough to be a 3.20 ERA. This week Chatwood faces the Braves and their second highest strikeout rate in the majors (22.6 percent). Not only does Matt Moore have a great pitching matchup this week, he has a 1.01 ERA and .084 WHIP in his last five starts. The command of the changeup, his third pitch, has been outstanding; the strikeout rate and swing and miss rate are is 42 percent and 31 percent higher respectively. Despite having a 5.63 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his last eight starts I’m still a believer in Jordan Zimmerman. With a walk rate of only 5 percent, a strikeout rate of 21.6 percent and a BABIP of .331 suggests he’s been unlucky. The Detroit Tigers have the third best OPS in the majors against left handed pitching. Gio Gonzalez has pitched great, but I have doubts that he’s a must-start … especially with a nearly 10 percent walk rate.

Spot Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
38	Derek Holland	TEX	LAA, @OAK	3.06	22.0%	6.8%
39	Chris Tillman	BAL	HOU	3.62	19.8%	9.0%
40	Chris Archer	TB	ARI	2.76	16.9%	10.3%
41	Corey Kluber	CLE	CWS	3.74	23.7%	5.7%
42	Gerrit Cole	PIT	COL	3.51	14.8%	5.1%
43	C.J. Wilson	LAA	@TEX, TOR	3.18	21.5%	9.0%
44	John Lackey	BOS	SEA, ARI	3.19	21.7%	5.1%
45	Lance Lynn	STL	@PIT-2, @CIN	3.98	22.4%	8.8%
46	Jake Peavy	CWS	@CLE, @DET	4.28	23.5%	5.2%
47	Matt Cain	SF	@PHI	4.79	22.0%	8.1%
48	Brandon Beachy	ATL	COL, @PHI	–	–	–
49	Francisco Liriano	PIT	STL, COL	2.23	25.2%	9.6%
50	Scott Feldman	BAL	SEA	3.75	17.6%	6.0%
51	Phil Hughes	NYY	@SD	4.33	19.6%	6.4%
52	Ivan Nova	NYY	@SD	3.66	23.1%	7.6%
53	Kris Medlen	ATL	@PHI	3.78	17.2%	6.3%
54	Eric Stults	SD	CIN	3.65	15.1%	5.1%
55	Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	@BOS	2.87	22.9%	3.9%
56	Joe Kelly	STL	@PIT	3.88	18.2%	7.2%
57	CC Sabathia	NYY	@SD	4.65	20.4%	5.6%
58	Alexi Ogando	TEX	@OAK	3.13	17.9%	8.8%

Additional Information: in July (21 games) the Colorado Rockies have the lowest OPS in the majors. What makes that statistic so surgprising is they’ve played a little more than half of the games in Coors Field. The Rockies offense is struggling, which is a great opportunity for Gerrit Cole to have a big day. It looks as though Jake Peavy will be traded before the trade deadline, which means he may miss his start against the Tigers, making him almost a must start. Eric Stults has a 2.45 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home. Stults is a must-start any time he pitches at PETCO Park. Since June 1, CC Sabathia has a 5.78 ERA and 1.34 WHIP (in 10 starts). If he wasn’t pitching in PETCO I would have him in the 70s. Hisashi Iwakuma in last eight starts has a 4.96 ERA and 1.20 WHIP and now faces the highest scoring offense in the majors in Boston.

Proceed With Caution

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
59	Kyle Lohse	MIL	@CHC, WSH	3.37	16.0%	3.7%
60	Ricky Nolasco	LAD	NYY, @CHC	3.73	18.8%	6.0%
61	Alex Wood	ATL	COL, @PHI	3.42	27.9%	9.0%
62	Michael Wacha	STL	@PIT	4.58	19.2%	5.5%
63	Mike Leake	CIN	@SD, STL	2.73	14.7%	5.7%
64	Ryan Dempster	BOS	SEA	4.28	21.1%	10.5%
65	Dillon Gee	NYM	@MIA	4.07	18.0%	6.8%
66	Justin Masterson	CLE	CWS	3.61	24.8%	9.2%
67	Juan Nicasio	COL	@ATL, @PIT	4.40	16.4%	7.9%
68	Jorge De La Rosa	COL	@ATL, @PIT	2.97	16.7%	8.5%
69	Travis Wood	CHC	LAD	2.95	17.2%	7.8%
70	Tony Cingrani	CIN	STL	3.18	27.3%	10.0%
71	Rick Porcello	DET	CWS	4.49	18.5%	5.0%
72	Jarred Cosart	HOU	@MIN	0.60	11.1%	11.1%
73	Patrick Corbin	ARI	@BOS	2.31	21.3%	6.7%
74	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	STL	3.19	14.0%	4.3%
75	Jarrod Parker	OAK	TEX	3.79	16.3%	8.0%
76	Jon Lester	BOS	ARI	4.50	19.7%	8.0%

Additional Information: Alex Wood features a low- to mid-90s fastball with a plus change-up and a knuckle curveball that can miss a ton of bats (46.7 percent strikeout rate). Despite a poor outing against the New York Mets a few days ago, Wood can miss bats and gets an opportunity to pitch against two bad teams. Don’t be fooled by the 0.60 ERA from Jarred Cosart. He pitches for a bad team, which means it will be hard to earn wins. Combine that with a .214 BABIP, a regression is coming for Cosart. Patrick Corbin has been one of the luckiest pitcher this year with a .246 BABIP, 7.5 percent HR/FB rate and 82.1 percent LOB%. Sell high. Jarrord Parker has not allowed more than three earned runs in his last 13 starts. Parker has not pitched nearly as well as last year, but he’s a pitcher who will not hurt your ratios, which makes him a great backend starter.

Avoid

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
77	Carlos Torres	NYM	KC	0.94	22.6%	3.5%
78	Zack Wheeler	NYM	@MIA, KC	3.72	18.1%	11.7%
79	Roberto Hernandez	TB	SF	4.92	17.6%	5.4%
80	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	ARI	4.48	19.7%	5.9%
81	Andy Pettitte	NYY	@LAD	4.39	16.1%	6.1%
82	A.J. Griffin	OAK	TOR, TEX	3.84	19.3%	5.3%
83	Esmil Rogers	TOR	@OAK, @LAA	3.74	15.8%	6.7%
84	Jeff Locke	PIT	STL	2.14	18.0%	11.6%
85	Wily Peralta	MIL	@CHC	4.54	14.3%	9.1%
86	Felix Doubront	BOS	TB, ARI	3.78	21.4%	10.0%
87	Jhoulys Chacin	COL	@PIT	3.53	14.6%	7.3%
88	Edwin Jackson	CHC	MIL	4.89	19.4%	8.0%
89	R.A. Dickey	TOR	@OAK	4.86	18.0%	8.3%
90	Sam Deduno	MIN	HOU	3.51	12.3%	8.5%
91	Kyle Gibson	MIN	HOU	5.72	12.0%	8.0%
92	Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	@MIA	4.49	21.8%	12.4%
93	Jeremy Hefner	NYM	@MIA, KC	4.17	18.3%	6.0%
94	Erasmo Ramirez	SEA	@BAL	8.74	16.0%	12.0%
95	Chad Gaudin	SF	@PHI	2.77	20.8%	9.1%
96	Dan Straily	OAK	TOR	4.44	19.7%	7.4%
97	Jacob Turner	MIA	NYM, CLE	2.49	17.1%	8.4%
98	Garrett Richards	LAA	TOR	4.65	16.4%	6.5%
99	Jose Quintana	CWS	@CLE	3.55	18.7%	7.0%
100	Tim Lincecum	SF	@TB	4.73	24.5%	9.5%
101	Nathan Eovaldi	MIA	NYM, CLE	3.54	16.3%	10.2%

Additional Information: Carlos Torres has pitched mainly in relief role this year for the Mets, but his last two appearances came as a starter. In those two starts he has a 23.4 percent strikeout rate and only a 4.3 percent walk rate. Torres features a low-90s fastball/cutter with an average curveball and change-up that can miss enough bats to be a solid streaming option, especially at home against the Royals who will be playing without Billy Butler or Eric Hosmer. I have not believed in Jeff Locke all year because he doesn’t miss enough bats and walks too many batters to maintain his 2.14 ERA. I believe his FIP of 3.83 and xFIP of 4.19 are a better numerical representation of good he is of a pitcher.