Lost in the craziness that was the Bryce Harper signing was the old news that the Phillies also added J.T. Realmuto to their lineup.
From the fantasy perspective, J.T. Realmuto is an interesting character. He currently maintains an Average Draft Position somewhere within rounds five through seven.
Is he truly worthy of that?
For example, let’s take the top nine catchers (not including Realmuto) according to Yahoo and calculate the average different between them and the new Phillies’ cathcer in the following categories: HR, RBI, and OBP.
The nine catchers being compared:
- Sanchez
- Posey
- Salvador
- Wilson
- Contreras
- Molina
- Grandal
- Ramos
- Zunino
A bit of quick math indicates that the average difference between J.T. Realmuto and the nine top catchers in fantasy is as follows:
- R: 26
- HR: 4
- RBI: 11
- OBP: 0.29
As it stands, the numbers indicate that, perhaps, Realmuto simply isn’t worth the draft capital.
Moreover, at a round 5-7 ADP, he would need to exceed the expectations listed above in order to “turn a profit” on your spent draft capital.
Keep in mind: there will be plenty of guys later on in every draft at catcher that have the required upside to turn a tremendous profit in terms of draft capital used and statistics given.
And they will basically be free.
On the other hand, though, Realmuto that hit .283/.350/.520 on the road last year with 13 HRs in 64 games.
Extrapolate that out to include the whole season, and you’re looking at a 32-33 HR campaign.
And that would be in Marlins park, which is generally not hitter friendly.
And now he is playing in Philadelphia, which according to Fangraphs, is the friendliest park in all of baseball for right-handed power.
J.T. Realmuto also notched 23 steals in the last three seasons.
Most catchers will be giving you no more than one stolen base.
But does that increase his profitability enough to match his current ADP?
I think, generally, you will not see Realmuto move in your fantasy draft until after the 80th pick.
His exact position is going to be based on the strategy of the people in your league: do they want a proven commodity at, perhaps, too high of a price … or are they willing to take a chance on an ‘upside’ player for a fraction of the required draft capital?