I’m not in the casino business or have a bookie, and even have poor luck playing the slot machines. When I place a sports bet, which is only occasionally, I don’t pay much attention to the over/under stuff. But in layman terms, Vegas experts say the San Diego Padres have a 93 percent chance of returning to the post season. In fact, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies are the only two teams in the National League with better odds.
The last time the Padres played October baseball was in 2022, and they came within one pitch of going to the World Series. It was the Game 7 in the NLCS when those fighting Phillies and Bryce Harper broke their hearts. It was so disappointing that the Friars never recovered, basically sleeping-walking through the 2023 season. New leadership was needed at the top, and it occurred when veteran manager Bob Melvin was replaced last November by Mike Shildt, an equally savvy field boss.
Shildt, 56, is a spectacled North Carolina native with a southern drawl who looks more like a librarian than a big league skipper. Appearances though, can be deceiving. He had coached and managed in the St. Louis Cardinals organization for nine years before being hired to run the big club in 2018. Over parts of four seasons, Shildt compiled a respectable 252-199 record and was named NL Manager of the Year in 2019. But despite leading St. Louis to Wild Card berths three times, Shildt was dismissed by GM John Mozeliak for “philosophical reasons.”
“We don’t get a lot of mulligans in life,” said Mike on a road trip to St. Louis with the Padres earlier this year. “I haven’t lost any sleep over how I did things here. I’m comfortable knowing that I did my best as a caretaker for the (Cardinals) organization.”
Chemistry improvement
The Padres were excited about luring Shildt for a front office position in January of 2022, giving him plenty of time to analyze the talent in the organization plus the pros and cons on the field. The guy is smart and tough, doesn’t panic and has everybody’s back. While Mike is always in charge, players are allowed to have fun and stay in the moment. That has led to tremendous team unity, with the Friars coming from behind to win games a record number of times this season.
“We just go out there and compete every night,” notes Manny Machado, who this week surpassed Nate Colbert as the Padres all-time home run leader. “We always believe that we’re going to win.”
Depth has been another area of improvement this season, with additions like veteran newcomers Donovan Solano, David Peralta and Tyler Wade. Then there was the trade that brought two-time batting champion Luis Arraez to San Diego. The versatile Venezuelan leadoff hitter, who has not struck out in 129 straight plate appearances, can play a multitude of infield positions. So when smooth-fielding shortstop Ha-Seong Kim went down with a shoulder injury, Xander Bogaerts moved over with ease, while Arraez, Solano and Jake Cronenworth defend the right side of the infield. Probably the biggest surprise has been 21 year old whiz kid Jackson Merrill, a sure bet to win the NL ROY. The center fielder’s current stats are crazy good, with a slash line of .281/.321/.498, including 23 bombs, 83 RBI’s and 16 stolen bases.
With 13 games left to play after the San Francisco Giants series, the Padres have a home stand left against the Houston Astros, and then must face the Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks on the road. It’s a daunting schedule for sure, especially in the tight NL West race. But I have San Diego nailing down the first Wild Card spot. Not a gambler’s pick, because that’s not my thing. Instead, it’s an educated guess based on confidence and desire. The Padres simply have that victory vibe.