Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 16

Adam Wainwright throws a pitch. — Adam Wainwright

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change.

Top starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
1	Max Scherzer	DET	@CWS, PHI	3.19	30.1%	6.1%
2	Yu Darvish	TEX	NYY, @CLE	3.02	32.5%	8.5%
3	Chris Sale	CWS	DET, KC	2.85	27.3%	5.6%
4	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	CIN	1.98	24.8%	6.3%
5	Adam Wainwright	STL	@ATL	2.45	22.7%	2.6%
6	Matt Harvey	NYM	@WSH-2	2.35	29.3%	5.6%
7	Jordan Zimmermann	WSH	NYM-2	2.59	18.2%	3.4%
8	Felix Hernandez	SEA	MIN	2.53	25.5%	4.7%
9	Justin Verlander	DET	@CWS	3.50	23.3%	8.4%
10	Stephen Strasburg	WSH	PIT	2.97	24.4%	8.1%
11	A.J. Burnett	PIT	@WSH	3.06	26.5%	9.9%
12	James Shields	KC	@CWS	3.21	20.9%	7.2%
13	Madison Bumgarner	SF	CHC	3.02	24.8%	6.9%
14	Cliff Lee	PHI	@DET	2.86	23.1%	3.9%
15	Homer Bailey	CIN	@LAD	3.81	24.1%	6.0%

Additional information: Matt Harvey has pitched 130 innings so far this year, which leaves him about 40 innings left. The Detroit Tigers have the second highest OPS in the majors against left-handed pitchers. Cliff Lee owners should start him regardless; don’t get too cute. Even though James Shields has a 4.10 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in his last seven starts, he is still an ace facing a bad White Sox offense. After watching the Royals smash Justin Verlander on Saturday, I believe a regression to the 2011-12 version of Verlander isn’t happening. Instead, fantasy owners should expect the pre-2010 Verlander.

Backend starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
16	Matt Garza	CHC	@ARI, @SF	3.17	21.2%	6.8%
16	Jered Weaver	LAA	MIN	3.30	19.0%	6.5%
17	Julio Teheran	ATL	@NYM, STL	3.35	19.8%	4.8%
18	Shelby Miller	STL	PHI, @ATL	2.92	26.4%	6.8%
19	David Price	TB	@BOS	4.03	20.3%	4.2%
20	Anibal Sanchez	DET	@CWS	2.85	28.2%	7.9%
21	Zack Greinke	LAD	CIN	3.49	19.3%	7.6%
22	Gio Gonzalez	WSH	PIT	3.03	23.4%	9.6%
23	Mat Latos	CIN	@LAD	3.53	24.9%	7.1%
24	Doug Fister	DET	PHI	4.02	18.2%	4.3%
25	John Lackey	BOS	TB	2.78	22.6%	5.6%
26	Bartolo Colon	OAK	LAA	2.70	14.0%	3.0%
27	Mike Minor	ATL	STL	3.02	23.5%	5.3%

Additional information: Matt Garza, who has a 1.24 and 1.01 WHIP in his last six starts, is scheduled to have two starts this week, but he’s on the trading block and could be traded at any time. I’m all-in on Garza for the rest of the year. In his last four starts, Shelby Miller has a 6.87 ERA and 1.86 WHIP with a 11.4 percent walk rate. Miller is no longer a must-start, but his stuff is so good that he should figure it out. Also, with 103 innings pitched this year, the Cardinals, who have playoff aspirations, are going to need him in the postseason. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals put Miller on the DL with a phantom for 2-3 weeks to limit his workload and to keep him fresh for the playoff run. In his first four starts after returning from the DL, David Price has a 1.97 ERA, 0.84 WHIP with a 0.9 percent walk rate. If Price wasn’t facing the Red Sox in Boston, Price would be a must-start. I put more weight in Doug Fister’s 3.35 FIP than the 4.02 ERA, despite allowing 23 earned runs in his past 36 innings (six starts).

Spot starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
28	Kris Medlen	ATL	@NYM, STL	3.64	17.2%	6.4%
29	Patrick Corbin	ARI	CHC, SD	2.35	21.2%	6.4%
30	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	@TOR, CIN	3.08	19.3%	8.1%
31	Gerrit Cole	PIT	@WSH, @MIA	3.88	14.5%	5.2%
32	Alexi Ogando	TEX	NYY, @CLE	2.93	18.7%	9.6%
33	Jarrod Parker	OAK	@HOU, LAA	3.95	16.5%	8.1%
34	Ivan Nova	NYY	@TEX, TB	3.63	24.5%	7.3%
35	Jose Fernandez	MIA	@COL, PIT	2.75	24.3%	9.4%
35	Derek Holland	TEX	NYY	3.10	22.8%	7.0%
36	Chris Archer	TB	@NYY	2.96	18.8%	9.9%
37	Francisco Liriano	PIT	@WSH	2.44	24.9%	9.5%
38	Zack Wheeler	NYM	ATL	3.54	17.1%	13.0%
39	Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	MIN	3.02	22.3%	3.7%
40	CC Sabathia	NYY	TB	4.07	20.5%	5.2%
41	Jeff Samardzija	CHC	@ARI	3.91	24.4%	8.5%
42	C.J. Wilson	LAA	@OAK	3.37	21.2%	9.1%
43	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	@TEX	2.65	17.7%	5.1%
44	Ricky Nolasco	LAD	@TOR	3.75	18.6%	5.5%
45	Ervin Santana	KC	BAL	3.18	20.0%	5.4%
46	Cole Hamels	PHI	@DET	4.05	21.9%	6.3%

Additional information: As of now, Kris Medlen has two starts this week, but the rumor is the Alex Wood is going to take Medlen’s spot in the rotation sooner rather than later; he’s already been moved to the fifth spot in the Braves rotation. The Yankees offense is bad, really bad. For the year, they have the third lowest OPS in the majors. If Chris Archer is available in your league, this is a great streaming option, because in his last five starts, he has a 1.69 ERA, 0.88 with a 5.7 percent walk rate. Gerrit Cole will not have better matchups all year with starts against the Nationals and Marlins. Ervin Santana has been amazing this year, but if you can bench him, you should try to find a way. The Braves have the second highest strikeout rate in the majors, which provides a very good matchup for Zack Wheeler and his plus-plus fastball.

Proceed with caution

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
47	Tony Cingrani	CIN	@SF-2, @LAD	3.23	29.5%	10.0%
48	Dillon Gee	NYM	ATL, @WSH	4.32	18.4%	6.6%
49	Matt Moore	TB	@BOS, @NYY	3.44	23.6%	12.0%
50	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	@SF, @LAD	3.42	13.7%	4.6%
51	Rick Porcello	DET	@CWS, PHI	4.80	19.4%	4.6%
52	Travis Wood	CHC	@ARI, @SF	2.79	17.6%	7.8%
53	Andrew Cashner	SD	@MIL, @ARI	3.81	16.2%	6.8%
54	Hector Santiago	CWS	DET, KC	3.30	24.7%	10.6%
55	Erasmo Ramirez	SEA	CLE, MIN	13.40	16.0%	16.0%
56	Lance Lynn	STL	PHI	4.00	23.3%	8.3%
57	Joe Kelly	STL	@ATL	3.88	18.2%	7.2%
58	Scott Feldman	BAL	@KC, BOS	3.86	18.1%	6.0%
59	Mike Leake	CIN	@SF	2.79	15.3%	5.6%
60	Jeff Locke	PIT	@MIA	2.15	16.7%	10.8%
61	Chad Gaudin	SF	CIN	2.15	22.1%	8.1%
62	Justin Masterson	CLE	TEX	3.73	24.4%	9.6%
63	Corey Kluber	CLE	TEX	3.88	23.9%	5.6%
64	Matt Cain	SF	CHC	5.06	22.1%	7.9%
65	Jeremy Hefner	NYM	ATL	3.93	18.5%	6.1%
66	Paul Maholm	ATL	@NYM	3.98	16.5%	6.8%
67	Kyle Lohse	MIL	SD	3.49	15.5%	3.9%
68	Dan Straily	OAK	LAA	4.28	20.1%	7.9%
69	R.A. Dickey	TOR	HOU	4.69	16.8%	8.6%

Additional information: I was extremely high on Erasmo Ramirez in the preseason because he fills up the strike zone and pitches in a great ballpark that forgives mistake pitches. In his last six starts, Lance Lynn has a 6.21 ERA, 1.52 WHIP with only a 20.4 percent strikeout rate; his career strikeout rate in the majors is 24.4 percent. Last year, Lynn struggled significantly in the second half of the season, and it looks as though he is hitting the wall. If you’re looking for wins, Scott Feldman is a great candidate for the rest of the year as he plays on the second-best offense in the majors. Despite three great starts before the All-Star break, Matt Moore is still walking too many hitters (9.1 percent walk rate) and faces the fifth-highest team in OPS against left-handed pitching in the Boston Red Sox. Fantasy owners should expect one poor start and one great one.

Avoid

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
70	Brandon Workman	BOS	TB, @BAL	5.42	29.0%	3.2%
71	Jake Peavy	CWS	DET	4.30	24.2%	5.5%
72	Roberto Hernandez	TB	@BOS, @NYY	4.90	18.2%	5.4%
73	Tim Lincecum	SF	CIN, CHC	4.26	25.2%	9.7%
74	A.J. Griffin	OAK	@HOU	3.82	18.7%	5.5%
75	Ryan Dempster	BOS	TB, @BAL	4.24	21.5%	10.3%
76	Edwin Jackson	CHC	@SF	5.11	19.5%	8.1%
77	Tim Hudson	ATL	@NYM	4.07	17.0%	6.5%
78	Jarred Cosart	HOU	OAK	0.00	7.7%	11.5%
79	Felix Doubront	BOS	TB	3.76	21.6%	10.1%
80	Scott Kazmir	CLE	@SEA	4.30	21.2%	8.4%
81	Tyler Skaggs	ARI	CHC, SD	4.03	20.2%	8.1%
82	Bud Norris	HOU	OAK	3.91	16.1%	7.8%
83	Yovani Gallardo	MIL	SD	4.83	18.3%	8.7%
84	Randall Delgado	ARI	SD	3.92	20.0%	3.0%
85	Charlie Morton	PIT	@WSH, @MIA	3.19	16.3%	7.4%
86	Jose Quintana	CWS	KC	3.71	18.9%	6.9%
87	Taylor Jordan	WSH	PIT, NYM	3.32	10.8%	3.2%
88	Zach McAllister	CLE	@SEA	3.42	15.8%	7.7%
89	Carlos Torres	NYM	ATL, @WSH	0.79	22.7%	2.3%
90	Phil Hughes	NYY	@TEX, TB	4.57	20.5%	6.0%
91	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	@BOS	4.66	20.3%	5.5%
92	Chris Tillman	BAL	BOS	3.95	19.0%	8.8%
93	Ian Kennedy	ARI	CHC	5.29	18.7%	8.6%
94	Tommy Milone	OAK	@HOU, LAA	4.24	17.5%	5.6%
95	Jon Lester	BOS	@BAL	4.58	19.2%	8.4%
96	Tyler Chatwood	COL	MIL	2.56	15.9%	7.9%
97	Wei-Yin Chen	BAL	@KC	2.67	14.0%	7.0%
98	Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	@SEA, TEX	4.56	21.7%	12.2%
99	Josh Johnson	TOR	LAD, HOU	5.16	22.1%	7.6%
100	Esmil Rogers	TOR	LAD	3.84	16.2%	7.0%
101	Tom Gorzelanny	MIL	SD, @COL	1.88	24.0%	9.6%

Additional information: Jake Peavy owners will luck out if he’s traded before his start against the Detroit Tigers. During his Saturday start, his fastball hit 93 mph multiple times, suggesting he could have sustained success the rest of the year. If you can buy low, I would. I’m not a believer that Tyler Skaggs will have sustained success the rest of the year, but with two starts against two bad offenses in a shallow pitcher class this week, it’s hard not to go with the matchup upside. Sonny Gray has shined in his brief few innings in long relief for the Athletics. If Tommy Milone continues to pitch poorly, Gray should take Milone’s spot in the starting rotation. Josh Johnson, in his last five starts has a 6.26 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. I’m staying away for the rest of the year. If you remove wins from the fantasy equation, Chris Tillman is a spot starter at best; Tillman is going to regress to his 4.95 FIP as the year progresses.