Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 20

Tommy John injuries — Marlins ace Jose Fernandez is the latest young fireballer to require Tommy John surgery.(Getty Images)

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change.

Top Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
1	Jose Fernandez	MIA	LAD, COL	2.45	26.9%	8.7%
2	Ervin Santana	KC	CWS, WSH	3.19	19.1%	5.8%
3	David Price	TB	@BAL, NYY	3.28	20.2%	3.4%
4	Shelby Miller	STL	@MIL, ATL	2.97	26.3%	7.1%
5	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	@MIA	1.88	25.0%	5.6%
6	Max Scherzer	DET	@NYM	2.85	28.7%	6.0%
7	Yu Darvish	TEX	@CWS	2.64	33.8%	8.3%
8	Adam Wainwright	STL	ATL	2.71	22.6%	3.3%
9	Stephen Strasburg	WSH	@CHC	2.83	26.2%	7.4%
10	Felix Hernandez	SEA	LAA	2.28	26.0%	4.8%
11	Zack Greinke	LAD	@MIA	3.02	18.6%	7.2%
12	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	TOR	2.33	18.1%	4.8%
13	Chris Sale	CWS	TEX	2.73	26.1%	5.5%
14	Madison Bumgarner	SF	PIT	2.73	24.6%	7.4%
15	Matt Harvey	NYM	DET	2.23	28.6%	4.9%
16	Cliff Lee	PHI	COL	3.19	23.3%	4.2%
17	Cole Hamels	PHI	ARI	3.65	21.4%	6.0%
18	Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	@OAK	2.95	21.7%	4.6%
19	Justin Verlander	DET	MIN	3.51	22.5%	8.3%
20	Mike Minor	ATL	@STL	2.87	23.1%	5.2%

Additional Information: Matt Harvey has an extremely tough matchup against Detroit, but if you own him, start him; benching him at this point in the season is getting too cute. Among starters with at least 20 starts, Hiroki Kuroda quietly (in New York of all places) has the fourth lowest ERA. Friday night the Toronto Blue Jays had Kevin Pillar and Anthony Gose in their outfield; expect another great start out of Kuroda. In his last 16 starts, Zack Greinke has a 2.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP with a 21 percent strikeout rate and 7.2 percent walk rate. For 2014, it looks as though Grienke will be at least a top 20 fantasy starting pitcher.

Backend Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
21	Rick Porcello	DET	MIN, @NYM	4.33	17.9%	5.1%
22	Jordan Zimmermann	WSH	@CHC, @KC	3.02	18.1%	4.8%
23	Jered Weaver	LAA	CLE, @SEA	3.49	19.4%	6.1%
24	Ivan Nova	NYY	TOR-2, @TB	2.99	23.5%	6.8%
25	Francisco Liriano	PIT	@SD, @SF	2.68	24.1%	9.6%
26	A.J. Burnett	PIT	@SD, @SF	3.18	26.0%	8.8%
27	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	@MIA, BOS	2.91	19.9%	7.1%
28	Tony Cingrani	CIN	ARI, MIL	2.78	29.4%	10.1%
29	Kris Medlen	ATL	@NYM, @STL	3.72	18.1%	5.9%
30	Patrick Corbin	ARI	@CIN, @PHI	2.48	21.4%	6.4%
31	Matt Garza	TEX	HOU	3.40	20.6%	6.2%
32	Derek Holland	TEX	HOU	2.95	22.6%	7.1%
33	Mat Latos	CIN	ARI	3.04	23.7%	7.1%
34	Anibal Sanchez	DET	MIN	2.50	26.6%	7.2%
35	Doug Fister	DET	@NYM	3.60	17.7%	4.5%
36	Julio Teheran	ATL	@STL	3.08	21.3%	5.2%
37	Homer Bailey	CIN	MIL	3.81	23.9%	5.6%
38	James Shields	KC	CWS	3.19	18.8%	7.7%
39	John Lackey	BOS	@LAD	3.32	22.2%	5.2%
40	C.J. Wilson	LAA	CLE	3.40	21.1%	8.7%
41	Gio Gonzalez	WSH	@KC	3.42	24.0%	9.4%

Additional Information: In his last seven starts, Rick Porcello has a 2.62 ERA, 1.32 WHIP with a 51 percent ground ball rate. This week, he faces two teams in the bottom third of the majors in OPS. Anyone who’s read my previous starting pitcher rankings knows of I’ve been reluctant to buy Francisco Liriano all year, and I’ll admit I’ve been wrong. This week, he has two starts in extremely favorable matchups in San Diego and San Francisco. Since coming off the DL, A.J. Burnett has not been as good from a fantasy POV with a 3.28 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP. However, all the peripheral statistics suggests he’s been unlucky (.381 BABIP). He’s inducing ground balls at 60.5 percent rate, nearly six percentage points higher than before going on the DL. In his last 10 starts, James Shields has been extremely hittable with a 4.38 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, eight percent walk rate and only a 15 strikeout rate. Since July he’s been relying on the fastball nearly 40 percent of the time compared to roughly 23 percent of the time. Also, during this streak, his swing-and-miss rate has gone from 23 percent to 18 percent.

Spot Starters

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
43	Jorge De La Rosa	COL	@PHI, @MIA	3.23	16.4%	8.3%
44	Alexi Ogando	TEX	HOU, @CWS	3.47	16.0%	9.8%
45	Danny Salazar	CLE	@LAA, MIN	4.07	31.9%	7.2%
46	Jeff Samardzija	CHC	WSH, @SD	4.29	23.8%	9.2%
47	Wade Miley	ARI	@PHI	3.63	17.6%	8.1%
48	Travis Wood	CHC	@SD	3.00	17.7%	8.3%
49	Eric Stults	SD	CHC	3.69	14.8%	5.0%
50	Joe Kelly	STL	ATL	3.26	16.0%	8.5%
51	Jake Peavy	BOS	@SF	4.41	21.9%	5.0%
52	Chris Archer	TB	NYY	3.10	17.1%	9.0%
53	Brandon Beachy	ATL	@NYM	4.50	19.8%	4.2%
54	Gerrit Cole	PIT	@SD	3.88	18.0%	5.9%
55	Lance Lynn	STL	@MIL, ATL	3.89	23.3%	9.0%
56	Andrew Cashner	SD	PIT, CHC	3.87	16.5%	7.4%
57	Jarrod Parker	OAK	SEA, @BAL	3.88	16.8%	8.4%
58	Sonny Gray	OAK	SEA	1.00	28.6%	7.1%
59	Felix Doubront	BOS	@SF	3.95	20.7%	9.9%
60	Scott Feldman	BAL	OAK	4.00	17.7%	6.7%
61	Alex Wood	ATL	@STL	2.61	27.9%	6.9%
62	Kyle Lohse	MIL	STL	3.17	16.3%	4.8%
63	Nathan Eovaldi	MIA	LAD	3.96	16.4%	10.1%
64	Alex Cobb	TB	@BAL	2.94	22.6%	6.9%

Additional Information: As of right now, Alexi Oganado is scheduled to start on Monday, but Jon Daniels, Rangers GM, on Friday said “it looks like it is heading in that direction” in regards to Oganado possibly missing the start on Monday due to shoulder soreness. According to one scout, Nathan Eovaldi “might have the best fastball I have seen all year.” In the preseason, I didn’t like Eovaldi as a viable starting pitcher option because of his inability to get left-handed hitters out; last year they hit .318 against him. The reason he was unable to get lefties out was the lack of a quality change-up or curveball. To his credit he’s made strides against lefties, only limiting them to a .165 batting average. However, he’s generating those outs exclusively with his fastball. He’s throwing the fastball 76 percent of the time; last year it was only 63 percent of the time. I’m not convinced this trend against lefties is going to continue, and I see Eovaldi as top-five closer in 2015. Alex Cobb looked a little rusty in his first start back from the DL against the Mariners. Preferably, Cobb owners should be on the bench this week against one of the best offenses in the majors.

Proceed With Caution

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
65	Jose Quintana	CWS	@KC	3.66	19.5%	7.0%
66	Jon Lester	BOS	@SF, @LAD	4.31	19.7%	7.6%
67	Ryan Dempster	BOS	@LAD	4.50	20.9%	10.2%
68	Jhoulys Chacin	COL	@MIA	3.18	14.9%	6.6%
69	Randall Delgado	ARI	@CIN, @PHI	3.51	16.7%	4.4%
70	Wei-Yin Chen	BAL	TB	3.23	15.9%	6.1%
71	Mike Leake	CIN	ARI	3.01	14.6%	6.1%
72	Justin Masterson	CLE	@LAA	3.59	24.0%	8.9%
73	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	ARI, MIL	3.35	15.1%	4.1%
74	Zack Wheeler	NYM	ATL	3.43	20.9%	10.6%
75	Dan Haren	WSH	@CHC, @KC	4.82	20.4%	4.3%
76	Jake Arrieta	CHC	WSH	4.90	20.1%	13.8%
77	CC Sabathia	NYY	@TB	4.66	19.7%	6.2%
78	Chris Tillman	BAL	TB	3.70	19.7%	8.9%
79	A.J. Griffin	OAK	SEA	3.76	18.8%	6.6%
80	Brandon McCarthy	ARI	@CIN	4.84	14.5%	4.7%
81	Dillon Gee	NYM	@MIN, DET	3.79	16.9%	6.1%
82	Ricky Nolasco	LAD	BOS	3.62	18.7%	6.0%
83	Bartolo Colon	OAK	@BAL	2.97	13.3%	4.0%

Additional Information: Bartolo Colon has looked bad in his last two starts, giving up 10 earned runs in 6.2 innings. What’s most concerning is his fastball velocity. In his last two starts, his fastball averaged 87 mph, three mph less than it has been averaging prior. Also, his max velocity was down four mph (92 mph). He throws the fastball 84 percent of the time, by far the most of any starting pitcher in the majors. He has a start on Sunday. If his velocity is still in the mid-80s, I’m not starting him. In his last eight starts, Zack Wheeler has a 2.87 ERA, 1.34 WHIP with a 22 percent strikeout rate and 9.5 percent walk rate. Even though these numbers are impressive, only three of those starts have come against teams with a winning record. Since joining the Cubs, Jake Arrieta has looked like a different pitcher, only allowing one earned run and a .095 batting average against in 13 innings. The biggest adjustment I’ve noticed is he’s incorporating his two-seam fastball/power sinker more often. This adjustment has turned him into a ground ball machine with a ground ball rate of 48.5 percent; that would put him 23rd among starting pitchers.

Avoid

Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	ERA	K%	BB%
84	Jason Vargas	LAA	@SEA	3.86	15.8%	7.5%
85	Jacob Turner	MIA	LAD, COL	2.89	16.4%	9.9%
86	Scott Kazmir	CLE	MIN	4.18	21.5%	7.9%
87	Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	MIN	4.11	21.4%	12.1%
88	Todd Redmond	TOR	@HOU	3.62	25.5%	7.0%
89	Ethan Martin	PHI	COL, ARI	6.29	22.9%	11.4%
90	Esmil Rogers	TOR	@NYY-2, @HOU	4.91	15.7%	6.8%
91	Jeff Locke	PIT	@SF	2.43	17.8%	11.5%
92	R.A. Dickey	TOR	@NYY	4.49	17.9%	8.0%
93	Ian Kennedy	SD	PIT	5.12	19.8%	9.3%
94	Roberto Hernandez	TB	NYY	4.95	17.3%	5.2%
95	Brett Oberholtzer	HOU	TOR	2.57	15.9%	3.5%
96	Bruce Chen	KC	WSH	1.62	18.3%	6.9%
97	Edwin Jackson	CHC	WSH	5.05	18.2%	7.8%
98	Martin Perez	TEX	@CWS	3.44	16.2%	7.2%
99	Juan Nicasio	COL	@PHI	4.94	16.1%	8.7%
100	Hector Santiago	CWS	TEX	3.36	23.6%	10.9%
101	Mark Buehrle	TOR	@NYY-2	4.29	15.6%	6.0%

Additional Information: If you’re looking for strikeouts and can take a hit to your ERA and WHIP, then Ethan Marin could be a viable option. Martin has electric stuff with a fastball thrown in the low-mid 90s and plus change-up and slider. His biggest weakness has been the lack of command: 13.6 percent walk rate in triple-a and 11.4 percent walk rate in the majors. Jason Vargas has a career 3.36 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at Safeco Field. If you’re for a pitcher to not hurt your ratios, Vargas could be a sneaky option. Danny Duffy was effectively wild on Friday against the Detroit Tigers. In two starts he has a strikeout rate of 24.4 percent and batters are only hitting .200 against him. For some reason, the Royals are still committed to Wade Davis as a starter, which is why Duffy isn’t scheduled to start this upcoming week. It’s obvious that Davis does not have the stuff to turn over a lineup two, three and four times and should be put back in the bullpen. Come on Royals management, you have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs, don’t squander it by trying to prove that Wil Myers deals was a good trade.