Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 10

These fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings were pulled Friday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The data is up to date as of Thursday night.

Top starters

Additional information: In the month of May, the Phillies have only scored 94 runs, which puts them 26th overall in the majors. I expect elite-level performances from Stephen Strasburg and Johnny Cueto. In Ervin Santana’s last start against Boston, he was extremely sharp with his command until the fifth inning. In that inning, he gave up five of the six runs he allowed. He has given up four or more earned runs in four of his nine starts — and four of the past six starts. His ground ball rate is the same as last year, and his strikeout rate is four percentage points higher than last year. I believe he turns it around. In four career starts in Colorado, Zack Greinke has a 4.58 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. He’s pitching so well, if you own him, you have to start him. I wouldn’t begrudge you if you sat him.

Backend starters

Additional information: You may be thinking Josh Beckett’s ranking may be too low considering he threw a no-hitter, but it came against the Phillies, and I highly doubt he is going to maintain a .211 BABIP and 85 percent strand rate. Ever since Anthony Gose replaced Colby Rasmus in center field, the Jays pitching staff pitched much better and the team has gone 13-3. For example, since Gose became a starter, opposing team batting averages on fly balls have decreased 60 points, and it’s not by mistake. Gose is at least a full grade higher (on the 20-80 scouting scale) than Rasmus defensively. Drew Hutchison is a fly ball pitcher and he misses a lot of bats, which is why he is a must-start. When Mat Latos comes back, either Alfredo Simon or Tony Cingrani will moved to the bullpen. I’ve never been a believer in Cingrani as starter because he relies so heavily on deception to get outs. If he was a reliever, he would have more success because the deception in his delivery plays up in short bursts. If Simon continues to pitch well, he will stay in the rotation.

Spot starters

Additional information: I mentioned Phil Hughes last week, and I’m going to say it again. In his last seven starts he has a 1.94 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and only one walk. Hughes faces the Astros, which, on the surface, looks like a great matchup. But in the month of May, the Astros are seventh in the majors in runs scored. As a starter, David Phelps has a 3.18 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. The WHIP indicates he has been extremely lucky with the ERA. If you watch him pitch, he’s always pitching in high-leverage situations with men on base, which means he could have a blow-up start at any moment. He has two great matchups, but tread lightly. I’ve gone on the record that Trevor Bauer will be a top-40 starter after his latest call-up because he stopped walking batters and the strikeout rate surged. I’ve watched all of his starts, and my biggest concern is he constantly wants to strike guys out; this is a phenomenon I’ve noticed the past two years. If he is going to take the next step as a pitcher, he’s going to have to learn it’s OK to induce weak contact, because that will lower the number of pitches per batter and will allow him to pitch deeper into games.

Proceed with caution

Additional information: For the year, Justin Verlander has a 4.04 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP. The WHIP suggests his ERA should be even higher than what it is. His strikeout rate is nearly eight percentage points less than last year and he only has a 3.2 HR/FB rate. When the HR/FB rate regresses, his numbers will be even worse.

Avoid

Additional information: Rick Porcello has pitched extremely poor in his last two starts (11 innings), allowed 17 hits, eight walks and 10 earned runs. He should have allowed more than 10 as the A’s had plenty of opportunities but failed to capitalize. He’s been struggling with his command, and he faces the hottest offense in the majors. Chris Tillman continues to say his groin is not an issue, but he has looked like a double-A pitcher in his last two starts. If he doesn’t perform well on Saturday (at Houston), there’s no way I’m starting him in any format.