Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 11

These fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings were pulled Friday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The data is up to date as of Thursday night.

Top starters

Additional information: Masahiro Tanaka didn’t have typical dominant performance against the A’s on Thursday, but the fact he was able to wade through the lineup without much trouble tells me he’s a top-10 starting pitcher.

Backend starters

Additional information: In Yordana Ventura’s first start back from a brief injury, he looked liked a pitcher who has not pitched in 10 days. He struggled with his command (primarily with the secondary pitches), which is why he only had one strikeout. The fastball velocity was 94-96 mph, and he was able to hold the velocity the entire game, which is the most important thing I saw. As long as he’s healthy he’s a must start. … For the year, Colin McHugh has a 2.52 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP (in eight starts) with a 27 percent strikeout rate. You may be thinking the strikeout rate is heavily inflated by first start, but if you remove the first start, the strikeout rate is 23.7 percent, which is really good. As of Friday morning, the Rays have the worst record in baseball, so his start against the Rays is not as bad as you may think. … In his first seven starts, A.J. Burnett had a 2.06 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP, but in his last six starts, he has a 7.25 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP. For the year, his strikeout rate is seven percentage points lower than last year (from 26 percent to 19 percent). I wasn’t high on Burnett entering the season because the Phillies are a bad team defensively and do not utilize the shift. Last year, Burnett’s great season was partly due to the Pirates shifting a lot. That said, against the Padres, he’s a must start in a 12-team mixed. … Hiroki Kuroda has a 3.44 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in his last six starts. In his last three starts, he only has eight strikeouts, which is concerning. He pitched well against the A’s, and I have no hesitation starting him in a 12-team mixed. After the A’s, he gets the Blue Jays in back-to-back starts (one in New York and in Toronto), which are starts I’m avoiding. … Zack Wheeler has 23 strikeouts, three walks and a 1.37 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in his last three starts, but I’m not buying it. Those starts came against teams that are in last place in each division in the NL: Phillies, Cubs and Diamondbacks. That said, he gets the Padres and I expect him to do well. If I own Wheeler, I’m selling high after the Padres start. … After a dominant start against the Royals, I’m extremely excited to see how Marcus Stroman fares against the Cardinals on Friday (I’m writing this Friday morning). I’ve been saying he’s going to stay in the rotation if he continues to pitch well because he has the highest upside of any pitcher in the Blue Jays organization (R.A. Dickey may have something to say about that), and in order to win the AL East, they’re better off with Stroman in the rotation than the minors or the bullpen.

Spot starters

Additional information: Phil Hughes has been lights-out in his last seven starts (1.68 ERA and 0.89 WHIP), but he’s still an extreme fly ball pitcher going to an extreme home run ballpark against one of the two best offenses in baseball. … If you’re still on the R.A. Dickey bandwagon, there is a glimmer of hope. In his last 37 innings (six starts), the walk rate is 8.5 percent, which is four percentage points less than in his first seven starts of the year. In his last six starts, he has a 3.89 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He faced the Twins earlier this year and the start didn’t go well (five earned runs in 4.1 innings), but he pitched in frigid weather. … Since becoming a starter, Danny Duffy has a 3.27 ERA, 1.15 WHIP with a 13.3 percent strikeout rate and 11.1 percent walk rate. I don’t trust high walk pitchers because they’re constantly pitching in high stress situations, but the White Sox have not hit lefties; they’re 23rd in the majors in wOBA.

Proceed with caution

Additional information: Mark Buehrle has really great numbers, but Joe Sheehan takes a deep dive, in his newsletter, into the numbers and provides analysis whether or not Buehrle can keep this up. … Brandon McCarthy has had a very strange season. If you look at his game logs, either gives up less than two runs or five or more. He only has 13 walks compared to 63 strikeouts, which is a great ratio. The Astros have a very interesting lineup, and they’re no longer an automatic stream option as they were last year. … Ervin Santana was great in the first month of the season; he was striking out batters at a 27 percent clip and a six percent walk rate. However, in the last month, he’s only striking out batters 17 percent of the time and 8.7 percent walk rate. I’m not comfortable starting him in Colorado, but I’m buying low after that start.

Avoid

Additional information: Justin Verlander has given up five earned runs or more in four of his past five starts and has a 1.47 WHIP for the year. I caught his last two starts, and he pitched fairly well. In his last start (against the Blue Jays), he pitched fairly well for the first five innings before giving up two home runs in the sixth. By the end of the year, he’ll have a 3.80-4.00 ERA. That said, I wouldn’t start him against the White Sox. … Charlie Morton has allowed two runs or less in eight of his 12 starts, which makes him highly valuable in daily leagues and leagues that use quality starts. He currently has a 3.31 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a nine percent walk rate. The WHIP and walk rate indicates the ERA is a little fluky and will regress, but he is a nice stream option (at home) in 12-team mixed leagues. … Tyler Skaggs has allowed four or more runs in half of his starts this year, and this week he faces the A’s, a team he has faced twice this year; in 12 innings he has given up eight earned runs and 19 base runners (walks and hits). … Kevin Gausman could get called up this weekend because Miguel Gonzalez may go on the DL. I’m a big believer in Gausman’s long-term fantasy value, and he should be picked up in redraft leagues as soon as possible because he’s a top-50 starting pitcher if he stays in the rotation the entire year. … Chris Tillman has allowed five runs or more runs in three of the past four starts. He says he’s not hurt, but I’ve watched every start and he’s pitching like he’s hurt. There’s no way I’m using him until I see improvement.