Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 12

These fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings were pulled Friday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The data is up to date as of Thursday night.

Top starters

Additional information: Dallas Keuchel will most likely not the end the season with a sub-2.40 ERA, but what he’s doing is legit; at the end of the year, he’ll have a sub-3.15 ERA. This week he faces one of the worst offenses in the majors (Rays) and an NL team without the DH.

Backend starters

Additional information: The presumption is Kevin Gausman will be sent down to the minors when Miguel Gonzalez comes off the DL, but I would be shocked if that happens. He has the highest upside of any starting pitcher on the major league roster, and if the Orioles want any shot of making the playoffs, Gausman will have to be the rotation. Trevor Bauer did not perform well in a favorable matchup against the Royals, but he’s throwing strikes consistently. If he doesn’t perform well against the Angels, it’s possible he gets bumped out of the rotation when Zach McAllister comes off the DL. Yordano Ventura has pitched great since coming off the DL, but he’s not striking out a lot of batters. In his last six starts (34.1 innings), he only has 22 strikeouts, which isn’t enough in shallower mixed leagues. He’s still a must-start this week, but if the low strikeout totals continue, I would try to trade him. Jeff Samardzija has pitched great this season and is a must-start against the Marlins because he recently went seven innings and only allowed two earned runs against them in Chicago. He currently has a 2.77 ERA, but when the season ends, he’ll have a 3.50-3.70 ERA, which means he’ll have an ERA around 4.20 the rest of the year. I’m selling high after his great start against the Marlins.

Spot starters

Additional information: Danny Duffy has a 3.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP as a starter, and he faces a Tigers lineup that is only average against lefties. For example, the Tigers are 17th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. In his last 11 starts, Brandon McCarthy has a 4.55 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 23.3 percent strikeout rate, 4.4 walk rate, 18 percent HR/FB rate and a .358 BABIP. Eventually the luck will positively regress, and I like him as individual streaming options this upcoming week. Chase Whitley has looked good in every start this year. He strikes out enough batters, generates a lot of ground balls and, most importantly, only has three walks in 33.2 innings. The 2.41 ERA is going to regress, but I don’t see a huge jump coming. By the end of the year, he’ll have a 3.25-3.35 ERA, which is still very good in deeper mixed leagues. He has a tough matchup against the Blue Jays, but I love pitchers who do not walk guys.

Proceed with caution

Additional information: I said at the very beginning of the season I wasn’t buying Jesse Chavez. In the last five starts he has a 4.13 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Even though he’s at home, I have reservations about starting him against the Red Sox in a 12-team mixed league.

Avoid

Additional Information: Justin Verlander has a 7.41 ERA and 1.78 WHIP to go along with 13.5 strikeout rate and 10 percent walk rate in his last six starts. Despite the favorable matchups this week, I cannot see a scenario in any mixed format where I would want to start him. The box score of Chris Tillman’s last start suggests he has made strides with this command, but he still left a lot of balls up in the zone and should have given up more runs only one. Even if he performs well against the Blue Jays on Sunday, I would have strong reservations about starting him because he has allowed five or more runs in three of the past five starts. He has a 2.90 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and a four percent walk rate, but I’m not buying especially at the Red Sox. In five of 12 starts, he has given up four earned runs or more, which means he could have a blow up start at any time.