Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 7

These fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings were pulled Friday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The data is up to date as of Thursday night.

Top starters

Additional information: Do not be fooled by Cliff Lee’s 3.64 ERA. He has pitched extremely well this season. If you remove his first disaster outing, he has a 2.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 25 percent strikeout rate and three percent walk rate. Cole Hamels has struggled since coming off the DL, but he has started slowly in three of the past five seasons. For example, he’s had ERAs above five and WHIP’s above 1.30 in his first four starts of the year. Hamels is going to figure it out. Homer Bailey is the biggest buy-low candidate for starting pitchers. He’s striking out batters 21 percent of the time and the quality of stuff is still there. The .372 BABIP and 18 percent HR/FB rate are going to regress. I would trade for him immediately.

Backend starters

Additional information: The Giants only have one legitimate left-handed power hitter, which bodes well for Nate Eovaldi. Lefties have a .804 OPS against him this year and .777 for his career. Eovaldi cannot get lefties out, but is extremely dominant against righties. He’s a must-start. Except for one start Jon Lester has pitched great, but now he faces a potent Tigers lineup that has the third highest wOBA against lefties this year. Before 2014, Ian Kennedy was a fly-ball pitcher who was home-run prone, but this year his ground-ball and fly-ball rates have flipped; with a 48 percent ground-ball rate, and his ability to miss bats makes me more confident in starting him.

Spot starters

Additional information: I am buying Henderson Alvarez. His strikeout rate increased two percentage points and his walk rate is down nearly one percentage point. He pitches in a pitcher friendly home ballpark and is a ground-ball pitcher with an adequate defensive infield. He’ll likely finish the year with a 3.30-3.40 ERA and is a good stream option in leagues as shallow as 12-team mixed leagues. Jon Niese obviously will not continue to have a sub-2.00 ERA, but I love him as a stream option when he’s at home. Since 2011, Niese has a 4.15 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, .323 BABIP, 12% HR/FB on the road versus a 3.25 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .298, 8.8% HR/FB at home. Matt Harrison’s command has been loose in all three of his starts, but the movement on the sinker is back. If you’re looking for a win, he provides one of the best chances.

Proceed with caution

Additional information: Four of Tom Koehler’s seven starts have come against the Mets, Padres and Braves. Those teams are in the bottom five in the majors in wOBA. Combine that with a .198 BABIP, 9.4 percent walk rate and 6.8 HR/FB tells me regression is coming soon. R.A. Dickey has been wildly inconsistent, has been walking too many batters and has one of the worst bullpens in the majors. CC Sabathia has looked bad for most of the year, but he faces a bad lineup in a pitcher friendly ballpark without the DH.

Avoid

Additional information: In his last three starts Ryan Vogelsong has a 0.89 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP. However, I’m not buying. He has a .218 BABIP and a 10.4 percent walk rate. What’s most concerning is he’s not holding his velocity; not only is it dropping its dropping precipitously after the third inning. He gets the Braves and Marlins at home. The Braves can’t hit and the Marlins strangely can’t hit on the road. In weekly leagues, he’s an extremely tempting stream play, but if you do you’re going to get burned. Tim Lincecum has the same matchups as Vogelsong, and like Vogelsong, Lincecum should not be used. His velocity is still down and he’s throwing his fastball up in the zone at the highest percentage since 2008 (45.6 percent). Danny Salazar will flash ace-level performance in one inning and in the next will allow a lot of hard contact. One reason why he is allowing so much hard contact is he is throwing fastball up in the zone, and in fact he’s been up in the zone 55% of the time, which is seven percentage points higher than last year. For the year, hitters are hitting .351 on fastballs up in the zone. With starts at the Blue Jays and home to the Athletics, I’m finding other options. Roenis Elias has a nice 3.27 ERA, but the 1.31 WHIP and 11.1 percent walk rate indicate he’s been lucky. This week he faces the Twins who have the highest walk rate in the majors. Runners are going to be on base a lot and he’s going to be flirting with danger the whole game.