TAMPA, Fla. – An old axiom in baseball holds that offense gains headlines but pitching and defense wins championships. Despite an era defined by role players and strategy based upon analysis, breakdowns and number-crunching, teams with deep rotations, most believe, will likely play meaningful baseball in October.
As the 2025 season commences, the temptation to create “a pecking order” is attractive, and see which teams fall into convenient categories. With Opening Day nearly upon us, an examination of starting rotations may, or may not, divulge hints of the future and predictability.
“If you pitch, then you have a shot to win,” said Boston manager Alex Cora earlier this spring. “For us last year, we were good until July and so the goal now is to have starters go deeper into games. As far as starters are concerned, we are certainly deeper than last year.”
The Red Sox are coming off an 81-81 season and with the addition of quality starters, the prospect for that surge into post-season play appears strong.
While Cora subscribes to the superiority of starters, the off-season activity for the Red Sox supported his belief. Despite adding three high-profile pitchers in the off-season, the Red Sox begin the season with several starters on the sidelines.
First, the Red Sox signed right-hander Walker Buehler to a one-year deal for a reported $21,050,000. Then, lefty Garrett Crochet also inked a one-year contract for a reported $3.8 million, and righty Lucas Giolito signed for two years for a reported $38 million.
That accomplished, Cora’s pitching foundation quickly fell apart. That’s because returning righty Brayan Bello (14-8, 4.43 ERA for 30 starts, topped the Red Sox in wins) went down early in spring training with a sore right shoulder. Then, Giolito was sidelined with hamstring tightness. Both Bello and Giolito will miss opening day.
If the Red Sox had to potential to field a solid rotation from day one, that honor could now fall to other teams. The Los Angeles Dodgers (with Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yammanto and Roki Sasaki) are considered the best rotation in the National League and if not, in all of baseball.
That observation is followed closely by the Arizona Diamondbacks (Corbin Burns, Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez) and the Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, Jesus Luzardo).
Among other American League starting rotations, the Detroit Tigers are considered strong with returning Cy Young award winner lefty Tarik Skubal along with Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, and Kenta Maeda. The Seattle Mariners fleet of starters is led by Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, and George Kirby (currently nursing shoulder inflammation).
If strong, starting, pitching represents a legitime path to success, then the notion of staying at the top becomes precarious. No team has repeated a back-to-back World Series championship since the New York Yankees captured three straight titles (1998, 1999, 2000).
“In today’s game, it is much more difficult to stay on top,” said A. J. Hinch, the Detroit manager. “Once you gain some success, teams are always making adjustments and finding ways to shut you down. That means winning becomes that much more difficult.”
Behind Cy Young award winner Skubal, Hinch found a way to help claw Detroit to an 86-76 record in the American League and good enough for entrance as a wild card team. That was the first post-season appearance for the Tigers in 10 years.
While the goal of starters is to start 32, 33 games and pitch 200 innings, that would support Cora’s contention relative to the strength of pitching. Yet, teams rarely have all five of designated starters at the start of the season remain healthy. In the case of the Red Sox, both Bello and Giolito are lost at the start of the season and the ambitious goals of those 30-plus starts and benchmark of 200 innings are compromised.
