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Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 15

Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 15

by Matt Commins | Posted on Saturday, July 6th, 2013
| 2082 baseball fanatics read this article

 

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change.

Top Starters

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

1

Matt Harvey

NYM

@SF, @PIT

2.27

29.8%

5.7%

2

Max Scherzer

DET

@CLE, TEX

3.08

31.1%

5.8%

3

Justin Verlander

DET

CWS, TEX

3.54

24.8%

8.6%

4

Felix Hernandez

SEA

BOS, LAA

2.69

26.5%

4.9%

5

Homer Bailey

CIN

@MIL, @ATL

3.57

25.0%

5.9%

6

Shelby Miller

STL

HOU, @CHC

2.80

26.8%

6.0%

7

Mike Minor

ATL

@MIA, CIN

3.15

23.9%

5.3%

8

Clayton Kershaw

LAD

COL

1.93

25.0%

6.5%

9

Adam Wainwright

STL

HOU

2.36

22.6%

2.5%

10

David Price

TB

HOU

4.65

22.7%

5.4%

11

Stephen Strasburg

WSH

@MIA

2.24

24.6%

7.8%

12

Cliff Lee

PHI

WSH

2.73

23.2%

4.1%

13

A.J. Burnett

PIT

NYM

3.12

27.0%

9.6%

14

Madison Bumgarner

SF

@SD

3.08

24.2%

7.5%

15

Yu Darvish

TEX

@BAL

2.78

33.2%

8.1%

16

Cole Hamels

PHI

WSH, CWS

4.38

22.4%

6.9%

17

CC Sabathia

NYY

KC, MIN

4.06

20.7%

5.1%

18

James Shields

KC

@NYY, @CLE

3.23

21.3%

7.0%

19

Chris Sale

CWS

@DET

2.79

27.2%

5.7%

20

Jordan Zimmermann

WSH

@PHI

2.46

18.0%

3.6%

21

Gio Gonzalez

WSH

@PHI

3.14

23.7%

9.8%

22

Ervin Santana

KC

@NYY

2.84

20.2%

5.0%

Additional Information: Cole Hamels is scheduled to pitch against the White Sox and Nationals, the 28th and 30th ranked offenses, respectively, in terms of OPS against lefties; fantasy owners could not get a better weekly matchup. As of now, Matt Harvey is expected to pitch next Sunday, the last game of the week before the All-Star break. If he does in fact pitch on Sunday, he will not be eligible to pitch at the All-Star Game. Since the All-Star Game is in New York (Citi Field), it makes too much sense for the Mets to not throw Harvey on Sunday and allowing him to start the game. In the last 30 days, the Yankees are 29th in the majors in OPS, making them a great streaming option.

Backend Starters

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

23

Matt Garza

CHC

@CWS, STL

3.46

22.0%

7.6%

24

Hisashi Iwakuma

SEA

BOS, LAA

2.60

22.4%

3.9%

25

Zack Greinke

LAD

@ARI, COL

4.30

17.3%

8.0%

26

Julio Teheran

ATL

@MIA, CIN

3.23

21.1%

4.5%

27

Bartolo Colon

OAK

@PIT, BOS

2.78

13.7%

3.1%

28

Anibal Sanchez

DET

CWS

2.75

30.4%

6.9%

29

Mat Latos

CIN

@ATL

3.03

23.8%

6.6%

30

Jose Fernandez

MIA

WSH

2.72

25.1%

8.8%

31

John Lackey

BOS

@OAK

2.82

22.1%

5.0%

32

Hiroki Kuroda

NYY

KC

2.95

17.6%

4.9%

33

Patrick Corbin

ARI

MIL

2.49

19.5%

6.6%

34

Jeff Samardzija

CHC

LAA

3.55

24.6%

8.4%

35

Dillon Gee

NYM

@SF

4.45

19.8%

6.1%

36

Hyun-Jin Ryu

LAD

@ARI

2.82

19.7%

8.1%

37

Matt Cain

SF

NYM

4.85

22.2%

7.4%

38

Lance Lynn

STL

@CHC

3.75

24.1%

8.9%

39

Jered Weaver

LAA

@SEA

3.78

18.0%

6.1%

Additional Information: Matt Garza, in his last starts, is striking out nearly 24 percent of batters while only walking 6.8 percent of batters, resulting in a 0.90 ERA and WHIP. Overall, he’s maintained his strikeout rate (22 percent) compared to the last two years while reducing the usage of the slider, his best secondary pitch. Even though he’s throwing the fastball more, he’s throwing it less often for strikes (4 percent than the last two years) and is generating a lower swing-and-miss rate (15 percent less than the last two years). Combine all that with a .255 BABIP for the year, Garza has been getting lucky and isn’t this good. However, with a start against the free-swinging White Sox, Garza is a great option this week. Jose Fernandez, in his last six starts, has a 1.34 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. With Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison in the lineup, the Marlins are scoring runs, which allows Fernandez a great opportunity to win some games. Having already pitched 92.2 innings he only has 60-70 innings before he’s shut down. Last night, I originally had Matt Cain in the backend of my top 20 because had a very impressive five starts in a row — 1.82 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. However, after seeing him get blasted by the Dodgers last night, I had to drop him. I try to avoid overreacting to one start, good or bad, but it’s the way he looked. He couldn’t throw the ball for strikes, and when he did, those pitches found barrels.

Spot Starters

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

40

Tyler Chatwood

COL

@SD, @LAD

2.75

16.4%

7.8%

41

Kris Medlen

ATL

CIN

3.11

17.1%

6.2%

42

Doug Fister

DET

TEX

3.80

18.3%

3.7%

43

C.J. Wilson

LAA

@SEA

3.50

21.1%

9.5%

44

Matt Moore

TB

MIN

3.65

22.8%

12.6%

45

Ricky Nolasco

MIA

ATL, WSH

3.85

19.2%

5.3%

46

Eric Stults

SD

COL, SF

3.70

15.1%

4.8%

47

Tim Hudson

ATL

@MIA

4.22

17.3%

6.9%

48

Paul Maholm

ATL

CIN

3.81

16.7%

6.1%

49

Chris Tillman

BAL

TEX

3.68

19.5%

9.1%

50

Rick Porcello

DET

CWS

4.82

19.1%

4.9%

51

Dan Straily

OAK

@PIT

4.52

19.3%

7.5%

52

Corey Kluber

CLE

KC

4.33

22.5%

4.7%

53

David Phelps

NYY

KC, MIN

5.01

20.9%

8.9%

54

Jon Lester

BOS

@SEA, @OAK

4.41

19.2%

8.3%

55

Phil Hughes

NYY

MIN

4.55

19.6%

6.5%

56

Scott Feldman

BAL

TEX, TOR

3.43

18.3%

6.3%

57

Kyle Lohse

MIL

CIN, @ARI

3.43

15.9%

4.1%

58

Ian Kennedy

ARI

LAD, MIL

5.16

20.4%

8.4%

59

Tommy Milone

OAK

@PIT

4.11

17.7%

5.4%

60

Bud Norris

HOU

@STL

3.22

16.6%

7.6%

61

Justin Masterson

CLE

TOR

3.78

24.5%

9.2%

62

Jarrod Parker

OAK

BOS

4.11

16.8%

8.4%

63

Francisco Liriano

PIT

OAK

2.20

25.4%

9.3%

Additional Information: Doug Fister has pitched a lot better than his baseball card statistics would indicate. He’s generating ground balls 57 percent of the time, second most among starting pitchers with at least 10 starts and is only walking 3.7 percent of batters, seventh best among starters. If you can get him at a discount, you should buy right now. In seven home games, Eric Stults has a 2.85 ERA and 0.87 WHIP compared to a 4.31 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in road games this year. With two starts at home against the struggling Giants and overrated Rockies, add him to your roster right now. Francisco Liriano is scheduled against the Oakland Athletics, the fourth best offense in terms of OPS against left handed pitching. Liriano is missing a ton of bats, but he’s not going to continue to sport a 6.4 percent HR/FB rate the rest of the year. Bud Norris has been a pleasant surprise this year, but there are some major red flags. His strikeout rate has decreased five percentage points compared to last year, and his ground ball rate isn’t large enough to sustain his 3.22 ERA. Also, his 5.5 percent HR/FB rate is going to regress eventually. The Astros should trade him sooner rather than later while his value is at his highest.

Proceed With Caution

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

64

Tony Cingrani

CIN

@MIL, @ATL

3.40

28.7%

9.7%

65

Joe Kelly

STL

@CHC

3.86

18.5%

6.8%

66

Ryan Dempster

BOS

@SEA

4.11

22.1%

10.8%

67

John Danks

CWS

@PHI

4.38

18.0%

2.5%

68

Jeremy Hellickson

TB

MIN

4.67

19.6%

5.7%

69

Mike Leake

CIN

@MIL

2.73

15.6%

5.0%

70

Derek Holland

TEX

@BAL, @DET

3.13

23.2%

6.3%

71

Jeremy Hefner

NYM

@PIT

3.54

18.0%

6.8%

72

Bronson Arroyo

CIN

@ATL

3.50

13.2%

4.6%

73

Andrew Cashner

SD

COL

3.82

15.9%

6.7%

74

Andy Pettitte

NYY

KC

4.40

17.8%

7.0%

75

R.A. Dickey

TOR

@BAL

4.59

16.8%

8.6%

76

Gerrit Cole

PIT

OAK

3.94

12.9%

4.0%

77

Jorge De La Rosa

COL

@SD

3.19

16.5%

8.0%

78

Jeff Locke

PIT

OAK, NYM

2.12

16.8%

10.7%

79

Jacob Turner

MIA

ATL

2.30

16.1%

7.0%

80

Wade Miley

ARI

MIL

4.29

17.6%

8.3%

81

Stephen Fife

LAD

COL

2.83

21.2%

6.7%

82

A.J. Griffin

OAK

BOS

3.95

19.4%

5.8%

83

Jhoulys Chacin

COL

@SD, @LAD

3.74

14.0%

7.5%

Additional Information: Many forget Joe Kelly was a serious contender to win the fifth spot in the Cardinals rotation over Shelby Miller. Kelly has pitched extremely well in long relief and has a plus fastball that sits in the mid-90s that allows him to miss a ton of bats. Since he hasn’t been stretched out, he may only be able to pitch 5-6 innings, limiting his opportunity to earn a win, but he’s facing the struggling Cubs. Derek Holland has pitched great, but with two brutal matchups against the Tigers and Orioles, fantasy owners are better served with leaving him on your bench. With a FIP of 3.89, Stephen Fife isn’t as good as the numbers would indicate. However, he can miss enough bats, generates ground balls nearly 50 percent of the time and most importantly, is pitching in L.A. In Jeremy Hellickson’s last four starts, he has a 1.38 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and a 23 percent strikeout rate and 7 percent walk rate. There weren’t many bigger fans of Hellickson than me this preseason, but I want to see two or three quality outings before he’s a must start.

Avoid

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

84

Josh Johnson

TOR

@CLE, @BAL

4.90

21.5%

8.0%

85

Jose Quintana

CWS

@DET, @PHI

3.69

18.7%

7.2%

86

Travis Wood

CHC

LAA, STL

2.69

18.5%

7.6%

87

Hector Santiago

CWS

CHC, @PHI

3.49

24.8%

11.3%

88

Joe Blanton

LAA

@CHC

5.14

19.0%

4.1%

89

Randall Delgado

ARI

LAD, MIL

3.67

22.3%

3.6%

90

Chris Archer

TB

MIN, HOU

4.17

18.6%

13.0%

91

Roberto Hernandez

TB

MIN, HOU

4.95

18.2%

5.1%

92

Ross Detwiler

WSH

@PHI, @MIA

4.04

12.3%

4.4%

93

Nathan Eovaldi

MIA

WSH

2.00

14.5%

8.7%

94

Kyle Kendrick

PHI

WSH

3.59

14.8%

5.7%

95

Chad Gaudin

SF

@SD

2.60

19.1%

8.4%

96

Robert Erlin

SD

SF

97

Tyler Skaggs

ARI

LAD

3.64

22.0%

7.0%

98

Felix Doubront

BOS

@SEA

4.11

21.6%

10.2%

99

Ubaldo Jimenez

CLE

TOR, KC

4.67

22.7%

12.7%

100

Tim Lincecum

SF

NYM, @SD

4.67

23.1%

9.8%

101

Edwin Jackson

CHC

STL

5.75

19.8%

8.5%

Additional Information: Tyler Skaggs pitched really well Friday night against the Rockies. Before the year began, I wasn’t as high on Skaggs because the lack of a quality third pitch (change-up). In order to be a successful starter a pitcher needs to have at least three quality pitches to get through a lineup three times. On Friday, his change-up flashed plus, generating swings and misses 71.4 percent of the time. If he can continue to develop the change-up, he could easily be a top 40-50 fantasy starting pitcher. Chris Archer has an electric arm, and I was extremely disappointed when he didn’t make the big-league club after spring training because I thought he was ready to contribute at the major-league level. However, in seven starts this year, Archer has been less than stellar, having trouble throwing strikes consistently and walking batters 13 percent of the time. However, if you are in need of strikeouts and can afford a hit to your WHIP, roll the dice with Archer because he will not have as good of matchup again.

Post By Matt Commins (51 Posts)

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