ST. PETERSBURG – If there are true powers working in the cosmic forces, standings for Major League baseball should begin to even out. Teams which began the opening weeks ahead of the pack are destined to remain in a commanding position.
Not necessarily certain.
There are over four months remaining and about 120 games for each club. The residual effect of the opening weeks has settled, and the Tampa Bay Rays have emerged as the most surprising team.
Here’s a club which pundits believed would regress and continue to decline in importance, Over the past decade, the Rays were one of the most successful clubs and manager Kevin Cash remains one of the longest tenured skippers in the game along with Terry Francona, Dave Roberts and Torey Lovullo.
Given the Rays ascendency to the top of the baseball world and holding, on May 17, first place in the American League East standings, their status to continue in this envious position challenges commentators.
“Our guys have done a good job in staying in the moment,” said Cash. “They do not get to far ahead and just going out and trying to win. Plus, our pitching, and both starters and the bullpen, has been a huge factor.”
At this point of the season, a number of circumstances have settled in the Rays’ orbit. Combined, these explained how and why the Rays have scaled to the top of the baseball world.
At least, for now.
The numbers, please
With a 6-3 over Miami before 16,788 in Tropicana Field May 17, the Rays captured their seventh straight series win and the ninth in their last 11 series. The 18 victories in their previous 22 games that ties a franchise mark for eighth best record over any 22-game span in team history. Since April 4, they have the best record in the majors and lowest ERA.
According to FanGraphs, this surge moved the Rays from 28.5 percent of qualifying for post-season play to 85.2 percent.
The Chandler Simpson Factor
If this club continues to surge, the dynamics of Chandler Simpson is a clear factor.
Simpson’s speed and daring on the bases provide a clear advantage. It’s not uncommon for an opposing third baseman to play inside the grass at third and that is no matter the score or situation.
According to Baseball Savant, his 3.98 seconds to first base is the fastest in the majors and in games through May 17, he has hit safely in 33 of 44 games.
In recent extra-inning games, Simpson, fourth in the majors in steals in games through May 17, found himself as the “ghost runner” at second to start the 10th frame. Given his speed and baserunning acumen, he is a threat to score at any time.
Over the opening weeks of the season, Cash has utilized Simpson wisely. Whether the the native of Atlanta is at the top of the order or at the bottom, he usually finds himself in the middle of any situation.
“This depends on certain match-ups,” Cash said of his use of Simpson. “It’s the way our lineup lengthens out and separating lefties. If we get big-split lefties, I’m sure we will adjust.”
A surprising bullen
Early success has been predicated on efficiency.
From April 22 to May 11, the bullpen produced an MLB-best 1.20 ERA. During the first five games of the season, there were five blown saves. Since, there have been three blown saves in their last 37 games.
“Things are pretty steady and we don’t get too high or too low,” said closer Bryan Baker, who is fourth in the majors with 12 saves in games through May 17. “It’s really fun to be part of this. I think that early road trip was kind of uncertain. We started a little slower than we wanted but since, it’s been pretty consistent. I think steady is the best word I can give you.”
The resurrection of Nick Martinez
Over the course of an undistinguished nine year major league career, righthander Nick Martinez essentially fell through the cracks.
Originally drafted by the Texas Rangers on the 18th round of the 2011 draft out of Fordham University, Martinez eventually played for three teams and spent four years in Japan before signing a one-year, $9-million deal with the Rays in the recent off-season.
Should the Rays decide on Martinez for the 2027 season, the price tag is a reported $20 million. The buyout is placed at $4 million.
Over that nine-year period, Martinez, at 35-year-old, went 52-60 and a 4.01 ERA in 138 starts and 280 appearances. Essentially a starter, Martinez compiled an 11-14 season (4.45 ERA in 26 starts) with Cincinnati a year ago and ended up in central Florida.
Thrust into the rotation, Martinez has breathed life into a struggling starters and his energy and production are clear factors for the emergence of the Rays as a significant force.
In his first nine starts for Tampa Bay, he has a 4-1 mark and sparkling 1.51 ERA. Only Cam Schlittler of the Yankees has a lower ERA at 1.35 among all starters.
There has been a clear resurrection of this once marginal starter, and his production remains a principal factor why the Rays hanging near the top of the AL East standings.
“This year, I’ve been way more aggressive in the zone and challenging hitters,” Martinez said after a non-decision at home against Miami on May 16. “I have a better mind set about this. Working with he catchers and the pitching staff and we are understanding what we are looking for from each start. Mentality has been the biggest separator, trusting my guys behind me and who ever is calling my game.”
