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Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 16

Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 16

by Matt Commins | Posted on Sunday, July 21st, 2013
| 1216 baseball fanatics read this article

 

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change.

Top starters

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

1

Max Scherzer

DET

@CWS, PHI

3.19

30.1%

6.1%

2

Yu Darvish

TEX

NYY, @CLE

3.02

32.5%

8.5%

3

Chris Sale

CWS

DET, KC

2.85

27.3%

5.6%

4

Clayton Kershaw

LAD

CIN

1.98

24.8%

6.3%

5

Adam Wainwright

STL

@ATL

2.45

22.7%

2.6%

6

Matt Harvey

NYM

@WSH-2

2.35

29.3%

5.6%

7

Jordan Zimmermann

WSH

NYM-2

2.59

18.2%

3.4%

8

Felix Hernandez

SEA

MIN

2.53

25.5%

4.7%

9

Justin Verlander

DET

@CWS

3.50

23.3%

8.4%

10

Stephen Strasburg

WSH

PIT

2.97

24.4%

8.1%

11

A.J. Burnett

PIT

@WSH

3.06

26.5%

9.9%

12

James Shields

KC

@CWS

3.21

20.9%

7.2%

13

Madison Bumgarner

SF

CHC

3.02

24.8%

6.9%

14

Cliff Lee

PHI

@DET

2.86

23.1%

3.9%

15

Homer Bailey

CIN

@LAD

3.81

24.1%

6.0%

Additional information: Matt Harvey has pitched 130 innings so far this year, which leaves him about 40 innings left. The Detroit Tigers have the second highest OPS in the majors against left-handed pitchers. Cliff Lee owners should start him regardless; don’t get too cute. Even though James Shields has a 4.10 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in his last seven starts, he is still an ace facing a bad White Sox offense. After watching the Royals smash Justin Verlander on Saturday, I believe a regression to the 2011-12 version of Verlander isn’t happening. Instead, fantasy owners should expect the pre-2010 Verlander.

Backend starters

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

16

Matt Garza

CHC

@ARI, @SF

3.17

21.2%

6.8%

16

Jered Weaver

LAA

MIN

3.30

19.0%

6.5%

17

Julio Teheran

ATL

@NYM, STL

3.35

19.8%

4.8%

18

Shelby Miller

STL

PHI, @ATL

2.92

26.4%

6.8%

19

David Price

TB

@BOS

4.03

20.3%

4.2%

20

Anibal Sanchez

DET

@CWS

2.85

28.2%

7.9%

21

Zack Greinke

LAD

CIN

3.49

19.3%

7.6%

22

Gio Gonzalez

WSH

PIT

3.03

23.4%

9.6%

23

Mat Latos

CIN

@LAD

3.53

24.9%

7.1%

24

Doug Fister

DET

PHI

4.02

18.2%

4.3%

25

John Lackey

BOS

TB

2.78

22.6%

5.6%

26

Bartolo Colon

OAK

LAA

2.70

14.0%

3.0%

27

Mike Minor

ATL

STL

3.02

23.5%

5.3%

Additional information: Matt Garza, who has a 1.24 and 1.01 WHIP in his last six starts, is scheduled to have two starts this week, but he’s on the trading block and could be traded at any time. I’m all-in on Garza for the rest of the year. In his last four starts, Shelby Miller has a 6.87 ERA and 1.86 WHIP with a 11.4 percent walk rate. Miller is no longer a must-start, but his stuff is so good that he should figure it out. Also, with 103 innings pitched this year, the Cardinals, who have playoff aspirations, are going to need him in the postseason. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals put Miller on the DL with a phantom for 2-3 weeks to limit his workload and to keep him fresh for the playoff run. In his first four starts after returning from the DL, David Price has a 1.97 ERA, 0.84 WHIP with a 0.9 percent walk rate. If Price wasn’t facing the Red Sox in Boston, Price would be a must-start. I put more weight in Doug Fister’s 3.35 FIP than the 4.02 ERA, despite allowing 23 earned runs in his past 36 innings (six starts).

Spot starters

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

28

Kris Medlen

ATL

@NYM, STL

3.64

17.2%

6.4%

29

Patrick Corbin

ARI

CHC, SD

2.35

21.2%

6.4%

30

Hyun-Jin Ryu

LAD

@TOR, CIN

3.08

19.3%

8.1%

31

Gerrit Cole

PIT

@WSH, @MIA

3.88

14.5%

5.2%

32

Alexi Ogando

TEX

NYY, @CLE

2.93

18.7%

9.6%

33

Jarrod Parker

OAK

@HOU, LAA

3.95

16.5%

8.1%

34

Ivan Nova

NYY

@TEX, TB

3.63

24.5%

7.3%

35

Jose Fernandez

MIA

@COL, PIT

2.75

24.3%

9.4%

35

Derek Holland

TEX

NYY

3.10

22.8%

7.0%

36

Chris Archer

TB

@NYY

2.96

18.8%

9.9%

37

Francisco Liriano

PIT

@WSH

2.44

24.9%

9.5%

38

Zack Wheeler

NYM

ATL

3.54

17.1%

13.0%

39

Hisashi Iwakuma

SEA

MIN

3.02

22.3%

3.7%

40

CC Sabathia

NYY

TB

4.07

20.5%

5.2%

41

Jeff Samardzija

CHC

@ARI

3.91

24.4%

8.5%

42

C.J. Wilson

LAA

@OAK

3.37

21.2%

9.1%

43

Hiroki Kuroda

NYY

@TEX

2.65

17.7%

5.1%

44

Ricky Nolasco

LAD

@TOR

3.75

18.6%

5.5%

45

Ervin Santana

KC

BAL

3.18

20.0%

5.4%

46

Cole Hamels

PHI

@DET

4.05

21.9%

6.3%

Additional information: As of now, Kris Medlen has two starts this week, but the rumor is the Alex Wood is going to take Medlen’s spot in the rotation sooner rather than later; he’s already been moved to the fifth spot in the Braves rotation. The Yankees offense is bad, really bad. For the year, they have the third lowest OPS in the majors. If Chris Archer is available in your league, this is a great streaming option, because in his last five starts, he has a 1.69 ERA, 0.88 with a 5.7 percent walk rate. Gerrit Cole will not have better matchups all year with starts against the Nationals and Marlins. Ervin Santana has been amazing this year, but if you can bench him, you should try to find a way. The Braves have the second highest strikeout rate in the majors, which provides a very good matchup for Zack Wheeler and his plus-plus fastball.

Proceed with caution

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

47

Tony Cingrani

CIN

@SF-2, @LAD

3.23

29.5%

10.0%

48

Dillon Gee

NYM

ATL, @WSH

4.32

18.4%

6.6%

49

Matt Moore

TB

@BOS, @NYY

3.44

23.6%

12.0%

50

Bronson Arroyo

CIN

@SF, @LAD

3.42

13.7%

4.6%

51

Rick Porcello

DET

@CWS, PHI

4.80

19.4%

4.6%

52

Travis Wood

CHC

@ARI, @SF

2.79

17.6%

7.8%

53

Andrew Cashner

SD

@MIL, @ARI

3.81

16.2%

6.8%

54

Hector Santiago

CWS

DET, KC

3.30

24.7%

10.6%

55

Erasmo Ramirez

SEA

CLE, MIN

13.40

16.0%

16.0%

56

Lance Lynn

STL

PHI

4.00

23.3%

8.3%

57

Joe Kelly

STL

@ATL

3.88

18.2%

7.2%

58

Scott Feldman

BAL

@KC, BOS

3.86

18.1%

6.0%

59

Mike Leake

CIN

@SF

2.79

15.3%

5.6%

60

Jeff Locke

PIT

@MIA

2.15

16.7%

10.8%

61

Chad Gaudin

SF

CIN

2.15

22.1%

8.1%

62

Justin Masterson

CLE

TEX

3.73

24.4%

9.6%

63

Corey Kluber

CLE

TEX

3.88

23.9%

5.6%

64

Matt Cain

SF

CHC

5.06

22.1%

7.9%

65

Jeremy Hefner

NYM

ATL

3.93

18.5%

6.1%

66

Paul Maholm

ATL

@NYM

3.98

16.5%

6.8%

67

Kyle Lohse

MIL

SD

3.49

15.5%

3.9%

68

Dan Straily

OAK

LAA

4.28

20.1%

7.9%

69

R.A. Dickey

TOR

HOU

4.69

16.8%

8.6%

Additional information: I was extremely high on Erasmo Ramirez in the preseason because he fills up the strike zone and pitches in a great ballpark that forgives mistake pitches. In his last six starts, Lance Lynn has a 6.21 ERA, 1.52 WHIP with only a 20.4 percent strikeout rate; his career strikeout rate in the majors is 24.4 percent. Last year, Lynn struggled significantly in the second half of the season, and it looks as though he is hitting the wall. If you’re looking for wins, Scott Feldman is a great candidate for the rest of the year as he plays on the second-best offense in the majors. Despite three great starts before the All-Star break, Matt Moore is still walking too many hitters (9.1 percent walk rate) and faces the fifth-highest team in OPS against left-handed pitching in the Boston Red Sox. Fantasy owners should expect one poor start and one great one.

Avoid

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

70

Brandon Workman

BOS

TB, @BAL

5.42

29.0%

3.2%

71

Jake Peavy

CWS

DET

4.30

24.2%

5.5%

72

Roberto Hernandez

TB

@BOS, @NYY

4.90

18.2%

5.4%

73

Tim Lincecum

SF

CIN, CHC

4.26

25.2%

9.7%

74

A.J. Griffin

OAK

@HOU

3.82

18.7%

5.5%

75

Ryan Dempster

BOS

TB, @BAL

4.24

21.5%

10.3%

76

Edwin Jackson

CHC

@SF

5.11

19.5%

8.1%

77

Tim Hudson

ATL

@NYM

4.07

17.0%

6.5%

78

Jarred Cosart

HOU

OAK

0.00

7.7%

11.5%

79

Felix Doubront

BOS

TB

3.76

21.6%

10.1%

80

Scott Kazmir

CLE

@SEA

4.30

21.2%

8.4%

81

Tyler Skaggs

ARI

CHC, SD

4.03

20.2%

8.1%

82

Bud Norris

HOU

OAK

3.91

16.1%

7.8%

83

Yovani Gallardo

MIL

SD

4.83

18.3%

8.7%

84

Randall Delgado

ARI

SD

3.92

20.0%

3.0%

85

Charlie Morton

PIT

@WSH, @MIA

3.19

16.3%

7.4%

86

Jose Quintana

CWS

KC

3.71

18.9%

6.9%

87

Taylor Jordan

WSH

PIT, NYM

3.32

10.8%

3.2%

88

Zach McAllister

CLE

@SEA

3.42

15.8%

7.7%

89

Carlos Torres

NYM

ATL, @WSH

0.79

22.7%

2.3%

90

Phil Hughes

NYY

@TEX, TB

4.57

20.5%

6.0%

91

Jeremy Hellickson

TB

@BOS

4.66

20.3%

5.5%

92

Chris Tillman

BAL

BOS

3.95

19.0%

8.8%

93

Ian Kennedy

ARI

CHC

5.29

18.7%

8.6%

94

Tommy Milone

OAK

@HOU, LAA

4.24

17.5%

5.6%

95

Jon Lester

BOS

@BAL

4.58

19.2%

8.4%

96

Tyler Chatwood

COL

MIL

2.56

15.9%

7.9%

97

Wei-Yin Chen

BAL

@KC

2.67

14.0%

7.0%

98

Ubaldo Jimenez

CLE

@SEA, TEX

4.56

21.7%

12.2%

99

Josh Johnson

TOR

LAD, HOU

5.16

22.1%

7.6%

100

Esmil Rogers

TOR

LAD

3.84

16.2%

7.0%

101

Tom Gorzelanny

MIL

SD, @COL

1.88

24.0%

9.6%

Additional information: Jake Peavy owners will luck out if he’s traded before his start against the Detroit Tigers. During his Saturday start, his fastball hit 93 mph multiple times, suggesting he could have sustained success the rest of the year. If you can buy low, I would. I’m not a believer that Tyler Skaggs will have sustained success the rest of the year, but with two starts against two bad offenses in a shallow pitcher class this week, it’s hard not to go with the matchup upside. Sonny Gray has shined in his brief few innings in long relief for the Athletics. If Tommy Milone continues to pitch poorly, Gray should take Milone’s spot in the starting rotation. Josh Johnson, in his last five starts has a 6.26 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. I’m staying away for the rest of the year. If you remove wins from the fantasy equation, Chris Tillman is a spot starter at best; Tillman is going to regress to his 4.95 FIP as the year progresses.

Post By Matt Commins (51 Posts)

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