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Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 20

Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 20

by Matt Commins | Posted on Saturday, August 17th, 2013
| 1490 baseball fanatics read this article

 

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change.

Top Starters

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

1

Jose Fernandez

MIA

LAD, COL

2.45

26.9%

8.7%

2

Ervin Santana

KC

CWS, WSH

3.19

19.1%

5.8%

3

David Price

TB

@BAL, NYY

3.28

20.2%

3.4%

4

Shelby Miller

STL

@MIL, ATL

2.97

26.3%

7.1%

5

Clayton Kershaw

LAD

@MIA

1.88

25.0%

5.6%

6

Max Scherzer

DET

@NYM

2.85

28.7%

6.0%

7

Yu Darvish

TEX

@CWS

2.64

33.8%

8.3%

8

Adam Wainwright

STL

ATL

2.71

22.6%

3.3%

9

Stephen Strasburg

WSH

@CHC

2.83

26.2%

7.4%

10

Felix Hernandez

SEA

LAA

2.28

26.0%

4.8%

11

Zack Greinke

LAD

@MIA

3.02

18.6%

7.2%

12

Hiroki Kuroda

NYY

TOR

2.33

18.1%

4.8%

13

Chris Sale

CWS

TEX

2.73

26.1%

5.5%

14

Madison Bumgarner

SF

PIT

2.73

24.6%

7.4%

15

Matt Harvey

NYM

DET

2.23

28.6%

4.9%

16

Cliff Lee

PHI

COL

3.19

23.3%

4.2%

17

Cole Hamels

PHI

ARI

3.65

21.4%

6.0%

18

Hisashi Iwakuma

SEA

@OAK

2.95

21.7%

4.6%

19

Justin Verlander

DET

MIN

3.51

22.5%

8.3%

20

Mike Minor

ATL

@STL

2.87

23.1%

5.2%


Additional Information: Matt Harvey has an extremely tough matchup against Detroit, but if you own him, start him; benching him at this point in the season is getting too cute. Among starters with at least 20 starts, Hiroki Kuroda quietly (in New York of all places) has the fourth lowest ERA. Friday night the Toronto Blue Jays had Kevin Pillar and Anthony Gose in their outfield; expect another great start out of Kuroda. In his last 16 starts, Zack Greinke  has a 2.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP with a 21 percent strikeout rate and 7.2 percent walk rate. For 2014, it looks as though Grienke will be at least a top 20 fantasy starting pitcher.

Backend Starters

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

21

Rick Porcello

DET

MIN, @NYM

4.33

17.9%

5.1%

22

Jordan Zimmermann

WSH

@CHC, @KC

3.02

18.1%

4.8%

23

Jered Weaver

LAA

CLE, @SEA

3.49

19.4%

6.1%

24

Ivan Nova

NYY

TOR-2, @TB

2.99

23.5%

6.8%

25

Francisco Liriano

PIT

@SD, @SF

2.68

24.1%

9.6%

26

A.J. Burnett

PIT

@SD, @SF

3.18

26.0%

8.8%

27

Hyun-Jin Ryu

LAD

@MIA, BOS

2.91

19.9%

7.1%

28

Tony Cingrani

CIN

ARI, MIL

2.78

29.4%

10.1%

29

Kris Medlen

ATL

@NYM, @STL

3.72

18.1%

5.9%

30

Patrick Corbin

ARI

@CIN, @PHI

2.48

21.4%

6.4%

31

Matt Garza

TEX

HOU

3.40

20.6%

6.2%

32

Derek Holland

TEX

HOU

2.95

22.6%

7.1%

33

Mat Latos

CIN

ARI

3.04

23.7%

7.1%

34

Anibal Sanchez

DET

MIN

2.50

26.6%

7.2%

35

Doug Fister

DET

@NYM

3.60

17.7%

4.5%

36

Julio Teheran

ATL

@STL

3.08

21.3%

5.2%

37

Homer Bailey

CIN

MIL

3.81

23.9%

5.6%

38

James Shields

KC

CWS

3.19

18.8%

7.7%

39

John Lackey

BOS

@LAD

3.32

22.2%

5.2%

40

C.J. Wilson

LAA

CLE

3.40

21.1%

8.7%

41

Gio Gonzalez

WSH

@KC

3.42

24.0%

9.4%


Additional Information: In his last seven starts, Rick Porcello  has a 2.62 ERA, 1.32 WHIP with a 51 percent ground ball rate. This week, he faces two teams in the bottom third of the majors in OPS. Anyone who’s read my previous starting pitcher rankings knows of I’ve been reluctant to buy Francisco Liriano all year, and I’ll admit I’ve been wrong. This week, he has two starts in extremely favorable matchups in San Diego and San Francisco. Since coming off the DL, A.J. Burnett has not been as good from a fantasy POV with a 3.28 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP. However, all the peripheral statistics suggests he’s been unlucky (.381 BABIP). He’s inducing ground balls at 60.5 percent rate, nearly six percentage points higher than before going on the DL. In his last 10 starts, James Shields  has been extremely hittable with a 4.38 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, eight percent walk rate and only a 15 strikeout rate. Since July he’s been relying on the fastball nearly 40 percent of the time compared to roughly 23 percent of the time. Also, during this streak, his swing-and-miss rate has gone from 23 percent to 18 percent.

Spot Starters

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

43

Jorge De La Rosa

COL

@PHI, @MIA

3.23

16.4%

8.3%

44

Alexi Ogando

TEX

HOU, @CWS

3.47

16.0%

9.8%

45

Danny Salazar

CLE

@LAA, MIN

4.07

31.9%

7.2%

46

Jeff Samardzija

CHC

WSH, @SD

4.29

23.8%

9.2%

47

Wade Miley

ARI

@PHI

3.63

17.6%

8.1%

48

Travis Wood

CHC

@SD

3.00

17.7%

8.3%

49

Eric Stults

SD

CHC

3.69

14.8%

5.0%

50

Joe Kelly

STL

ATL

3.26

16.0%

8.5%

51

Jake Peavy

BOS

@SF

4.41

21.9%

5.0%

52

Chris Archer

TB

NYY

3.10

17.1%

9.0%

53

Brandon Beachy

ATL

@NYM

4.50

19.8%

4.2%

54

Gerrit Cole

PIT

@SD

3.88

18.0%

5.9%

55

Lance Lynn

STL

@MIL, ATL

3.89

23.3%

9.0%

56

Andrew Cashner

SD

PIT, CHC

3.87

16.5%

7.4%

57

Jarrod Parker

OAK

SEA, @BAL

3.88

16.8%

8.4%

58

Sonny Gray

OAK

SEA

1.00

28.6%

7.1%

59

Felix Doubront

BOS

@SF

3.95

20.7%

9.9%

60

Scott Feldman

BAL

OAK

4.00

17.7%

6.7%

61

Alex Wood

ATL

@STL

2.61

27.9%

6.9%

62

Kyle Lohse

MIL

STL

3.17

16.3%

4.8%

63

Nathan Eovaldi

MIA

LAD

3.96

16.4%

10.1%

64

Alex Cobb

TB

@BAL

2.94

22.6%

6.9%


Additional Information: As of right now, Alexi Oganado is scheduled to start on Monday, but Jon Daniels, Rangers GM, on Friday said “it looks like it is heading in that direction” in regards to Oganado possibly missing the start on Monday due to shoulder soreness. According to one scout, Nathan Eovaldi “might have the best fastball I have seen all year.” In the preseason, I didn’t like Eovaldi as a viable starting pitcher option because of his inability to get left-handed hitters out; last year they hit .318 against him. The reason he was unable to get lefties out was the lack of a quality change-up or curveball. To his credit he’s made strides against lefties, only limiting them to a .165 batting average. However, he’s generating those outs exclusively with his fastball. He’s throwing the fastball 76 percent of the time; last year it was only 63 percent of the time. I’m not convinced this trend against lefties is going to continue, and I see Eovaldi as top-five closer in 2015. Alex Cobb looked a little rusty in his first start back from the DL against the Mariners. Preferably, Cobb owners should be on the bench this week against one of the best offenses in the majors.

Proceed With Caution

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

65

Jose Quintana

CWS

@KC

3.66

19.5%

7.0%

66

Jon Lester

BOS

@SF, @LAD

4.31

19.7%

7.6%

67

Ryan Dempster

BOS

@LAD

4.50

20.9%

10.2%

68

Jhoulys Chacin

COL

@MIA

3.18

14.9%

6.6%

69

Randall Delgado

ARI

@CIN, @PHI

3.51

16.7%

4.4%

70

Wei-Yin Chen

BAL

TB

3.23

15.9%

6.1%

71

Mike Leake

CIN

ARI

3.01

14.6%

6.1%

72

Justin Masterson

CLE

@LAA

3.59

24.0%

8.9%

73

Bronson Arroyo

CIN

ARI, MIL

3.35

15.1%

4.1%

74

Zack Wheeler

NYM

ATL

3.43

20.9%

10.6%

75

Dan Haren

WSH

@CHC, @KC

4.82

20.4%

4.3%

76

Jake Arrieta

CHC

WSH

4.90

20.1%

13.8%

77

CC Sabathia

NYY

@TB

4.66

19.7%

6.2%

78

Chris Tillman

BAL

TB

3.70

19.7%

8.9%

79

A.J. Griffin

OAK

SEA

3.76

18.8%

6.6%

80

Brandon McCarthy

ARI

@CIN

4.84

14.5%

4.7%

81

Dillon Gee

NYM

@MIN, DET

3.79

16.9%

6.1%

82

Ricky Nolasco

LAD

BOS

3.62

18.7%

6.0%

83

Bartolo Colon

OAK

@BAL

2.97

13.3%

4.0%


Additional Information: Bartolo Colon has looked bad in his last two starts, giving up 10 earned runs in 6.2 innings. What’s most concerning is his fastball velocity. In his last two starts, his fastball averaged 87 mph, three mph less than it has been averaging prior. Also, his max velocity was down four mph (92 mph). He throws the fastball 84 percent of the time, by far the most of any starting pitcher in the majors. He has a start on Sunday. If his velocity is still in the mid-80s, I’m not starting him. In his last eight starts, Zack Wheeler  has a 2.87 ERA, 1.34 WHIP with a 22 percent strikeout rate and 9.5 percent walk rate. Even though these numbers are impressive, only three of those starts have come against teams with a winning record. Since joining the Cubs, Jake Arrieta has looked like a different pitcher, only allowing one earned run and a .095 batting average against in 13 innings. The biggest adjustment I’ve noticed is he’s incorporating his two-seam fastball/power sinker more often. This adjustment has turned him into a ground ball machine with a ground ball rate of 48.5 percent; that would put him 23rd among starting pitchers.

Avoid

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

84

Jason Vargas

LAA

@SEA

3.86

15.8%

7.5%

85

Jacob Turner

MIA

LAD, COL

2.89

16.4%

9.9%

86

Scott Kazmir

CLE

MIN

4.18

21.5%

7.9%

87

Ubaldo Jimenez

CLE

MIN

4.11

21.4%

12.1%

88

Todd Redmond

TOR

@HOU

3.62

25.5%

7.0%

89

Ethan Martin

PHI

COL, ARI

6.29

22.9%

11.4%

90

Esmil Rogers

TOR

@NYY-2, @HOU

4.91

15.7%

6.8%

91

Jeff Locke

PIT

@SF

2.43

17.8%

11.5%

92

R.A. Dickey

TOR

@NYY

4.49

17.9%

8.0%

93

Ian Kennedy

SD

PIT

5.12

19.8%

9.3%

94

Roberto Hernandez

TB

NYY

4.95

17.3%

5.2%

95

Brett Oberholtzer

HOU

TOR

2.57

15.9%

3.5%

96

Bruce Chen

KC

WSH

1.62

18.3%

6.9%

97

Edwin Jackson

CHC

WSH

5.05

18.2%

7.8%

98

Martin Perez

TEX

@CWS

3.44

16.2%

7.2%

99

Juan Nicasio

COL

@PHI

4.94

16.1%

8.7%

100

Hector Santiago

CWS

TEX

3.36

23.6%

10.9%

101

Mark Buehrle

TOR

@NYY-2

4.29

15.6%

6.0%

Additional Information: If you’re looking for strikeouts and can take a hit to your ERA and WHIP, then Ethan Marin could be a viable option. Martin has electric stuff with a fastball thrown in the low-mid 90s and plus change-up and slider. His biggest weakness has been the lack of command: 13.6 percent walk rate in triple-a and 11.4 percent walk rate in the majors. Jason Vargas has a career 3.36 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at Safeco Field. If you’re for a pitcher to not hurt your ratios, Vargas could be a sneaky option. Danny Duffy was effectively wild on Friday against the Detroit Tigers. In two starts he has a strikeout rate of 24.4 percent and batters are only hitting .200 against him. For some reason, the Royals are still committed to Wade Davis as a starter, which is why Duffy isn’t scheduled to start this upcoming week. It’s obvious that Davis does not have the stuff to turn over a lineup two, three and four times and should be put back in the bullpen. Come on Royals management, you have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs, don’t squander it by trying to prove that Wil Myers deals was a good trade.

Post By Matt Commins (51 Posts)

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