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Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 13

Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for week 13

by Matt Commins | Posted on Sunday, June 23rd, 2013
| 1584 baseball fanatics read this article

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Fantasy baseball owners, please be aware the matchups are subject to change.

Top Starters

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

1

Cliff Lee

PHI

@SD, @LAD

2.53

22.9%

4.0%

2

Yu Darvish

TEX

@NYY, CIN

2.84

34.2%

7.7%

3

Chris Sale

CWS

NYM, CLE

2.69

25.4%

5.9%

4

Hiroki Kuroda

NYY

TEX, @BAL

2.78

16.5%

5.3%

5

Gio Gonzalez

WSH

ARI, @NYM

3.34

24.5%

10.8%

6

Clayton Kershaw

LAD

SF

2.07

25.0%

7.2%

7

Adam Wainwright

STL

@OAK

2.37

23.3%

2.1%

8

Stephen Strasburg

WSH

ARI

2.40

25.1%

7.3%

9

Matt Harvey

NYM

WSH

2.16

28.9%

5.8%

10

Hisashi Iwakuma

SEA

CHC

2.26

23.6%

4.2%

11

James Shields

KC

@MIN

2.72

22.5%

7.1%

12

Max Scherzer

DET

@TB

3.08

31.4%

6.5%

13

Justin Verlander

DET

@TB

3.72

27.0%

8.1%

14

Jordan Zimmermann

WSH

ARI

2.26

18.1%

3.6%

15

Felix Hernandez

SEA

PIT

2.71

25.9%

4.6%

16

Homer Bailey

CIN

@OAK

3.75

24.3%

5.9%

17

Hyun-Jin Ryu

LAD

SF, PHI

2.96

21.2%

7.3%

18

Ervin Santana

KC

ATL, @MIN

2.64

20.0%

3.9%

19

Shelby Miller

STL

@OAK

2.09

28.6%

5.7%

20

Jeff Samardzija

CHC

@SEA

3.35

26.9%

8.3%

21

Madison Bumgarner

SF

@LAD, @COL

3.25

25.1%

7.5%

22

Johnny Cueto

CIN

@TEX

3.21

21.1%

7.4%

Additional Information: I’m not worried about Justin Verlander. His strikeout rate (27 percent) is the highest it’s been since 2009, and his swing-and-miss rate is the same as it was the past four seasons. The two biggest differences this year has been his BABIP of .344 and the walk rate (8.1 percent). He’s inducing the same amount of ground balls and fly balls, which leads me to believe the BABIP will regress back to his normal BABIP of .290 the rest of the season. Despite the high baseball card statistics, Homer Bailey quietly has been extremely good. His 3.75 ERA can mislead fantasy owners into thinking he’s been mediocre. Instead, look at his 2.70 FIP (fielding independent pitching), walk rates and strikeout rates. There are only 19 pitchers (with at least 12 starts) who have a strikeout rate greater than 24 percent. Of those 19 pitchers, only three have lower walk rates: Matt Harvey, Shelby Miller and Felix Hernandez.

Backend Starters

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

23

Lance Lynn

STL

@HOU

3.42

24.7%

8.9%

24

Patrick Corbin

ARI

@WSH

2.28

19.7%

6.1%

25

Cole Hamels

PHI

@SD

4.50

22.1%

7.3%

26

Kris Medlen

ATL

@KC

2.96

18.0%

6.3%

27

Jose Fernandez

MIA

MIN

3.05

24.9%

8.9%

28

Julio Teheran

ATL

ARI

3.33

19.0%

4.3%

29

Derek Holland

TEX

@NYY

3.43

22.2%

6.2%

30

Mike Minor

ATL

@KC

2.89

23.8%

5.2%

31

Doug Fister

DET

LAA

3.66

18.8%

3.7%

32

Dillon Gee

NYM

WSH

4.56

19.8%

6.0%

33

Andrew Cashner

SD

@MIA

3.56

17.7%

6.5%

34

Jarrod Parker

OAK

STL

4.30

16.2%

9.0%

35

John Lackey

BOS

COL

3.03

20.5%

5.7%

36

Yovani Gallardo

MIL

CHC

4.09

18.7%

8.0%

37

Bartolo Colon

OAK

STL

2.93

14.5%

3.1%

38

Mat Latos

CIN

@TEX

3.20

22.0%

6.6%

Additional Information: I’ve been resistant to believe in John Lackey, but he’s made himself into a ground-ball machine, generating ground balls 50.4 percent of the time. Among starters with at least 10 starts this year, 26 pitchers have a ground ball rate of at least 50 percent. Of those 26 pitchers, only eight have a strikeout rate greater than 20 percent. One of those pitchers is Lackey. Quietly, Yovani Gallardo has not allowed a run and has a 0.81 WHIP in his last three starts (21 innings). The Baltimore Orioles have second highest OPS in the majors and have the fifth highest OPS against lefties. This isn’t a slam dunk start for CC Sabathia, who has a 4.82 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his last five starts. Even when you remove Cole Hamels’ first two horrendous starts of the year, he still has a 3.73 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 23.3 percent strikeout rate and 7.0 percent walk rate. Hamels has been a little unlucky with his strand rate (69 percent), but all of his other peripheral statistics are basically the same. Hamels is a great buy-low candidate.

Spot Starters

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

39

Rick Porcello

DET

LAA, @TB

4.74

20.4%

4.2%

40

Gerrit Cole

PIT

MIL

3.44

10.8%

1.4%

41

Tyler Chatwood

COL

NYM

2.21

19.2%

8.2%

42

Ricky Nolasco

MIA

SD

3.68

18.5%

6.0%

43

Zack Greinke

LAD

PHI

4.22

16.3%

7.0%

44

CC Sabathia

NYY

@BAL

3.93

20.8%

4.9%

45

Jered Weaver

LAA

@DET

4.64

17.1%

6.9%

46

Zack Wheeler

NYM

@CWS, WSH

0.00

26.9%

19.2%

47

Eric Stults

SD

PHI, @MIA

3.25

16.3%

5.2%

48

Paul Maholm

ATL

ARI

3.57

17.5%

6.6%

49

Travis Wood

CHC

@SEA

2.74

17.7%

7.8%

50

Chris Tillman

BAL

CLE, NYY

3.71

19.0%

8.8%

51

Wade Miley

ARI

@WSH

4.70

17.2%

8.2%

52

Jose Alvarez

DET

LAA

2.45

22.7%

6.8%

53

Kyle Lohse

MIL

CHC, @PIT

3.68

15.4%

4.3%

54

Matt Garza

CHC

@MIL

4.26

21.1%

8.0%

55

Corey Kluber

CLE

@BAL

3.58

24.6%

4.5%

56

Matt Cain

SF

@COL

4.55

22.6%

7.5%

Additional Information: Despite the poor start against the Orioles, I’m not backing off my love for Rick Porcello. He’s striking out 24.4 percent of batters while only walking 4 percent of batters in his last 10 starts. Since April 29, Tyler Chatwood has the second lowest ERA among starters with at least five starts despite calling Coors Field his home ballpark. He walks 8.2 percent of batters, which is too high for a pitcher who only strikes out 19.5 percent batters. This upcoming week he faces the second-worst offense in the league in the Mets. He is a must-start in all formats. Despite the poor matchup, I’m confidently starting Corey Kluber because he misses a lot of bats (24.6 strikeout rate) and his low walk rate (4.5 percent). Jose Alvarez doesn’t have remarkable stuff, but he plays on a high powered offense that faces the Angels, a team that has allowed the second most runs in the majors. So, if you’re looking for wins, Alvarez is someone you should roll the dice with. Despite pitching well recently, Matt Cain in 12 career starts at Coors Field, has a 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

Proceed With Caution

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

57

C.J. Wilson

LAA

@DET, @HOU

3.61

20.6%

9.7%

58

Ryan Dempster

BOS

COL, TOR

4.23

23.4%

10.9%

59

Trevor Cahill

ARI

@WSH, @ATL

3.92

16.4%

8.9%

60

Kyle Kendrick

PHI

@SD, @LAD

3.56

15.0%

6.3%

61

Jon Lester

BOS

TOR

4.58

19.3%

8.4%

62

Josh Johnson

TOR

@BOS

4.38

21.9%

8.4%

63

Tim Hudson

ATL

ARI

4.17

18.2%

6.0%

64

Ross Detwiler

WSH

@NYM

3.33

11.9%

4.1%

65

Justin Masterson

CLE

@BAL, @CWS

3.48

24.2%

9.5%

66

Edwin Jackson

CHC

@MIL, @SEA

5.49

20.4%

8.8%

67

A.J. Griffin

OAK

CIN

3.90

19.0%

5.9%

68

Tommy Milone

OAK

CIN

3.98

18.5%

5.0%

69

Bronson Arroyo

CIN

@OAK

3.13

13.5%

4.3%

71

Dan Straily

OAK

STL

4.98

18.3%

6.5%

70

Esmil Rogers

TOR

@TB, @BOS

3.14

15.0%

7.0%

72

David Phelps

NYY

@BAL

4.01

22.0%

9.6%

73

Andy Pettitte

NYY

TEX

4.20

18.2%

6.3%

74

Hector Santiago

CWS

CLE-2

3.03

23.8%

11.4%

75

Jeff Locke

PIT

@SEA

2.02

17.6%

10.9%

76

Jordan Lyles

HOU

LAA

3.22

18.3%

6.3%

77

Ubaldo Jimenez

CLE

@BAL, @CWS

4.67

22.8%

12.2%

Additional Information: Ubaldo Jimenez has a great matchup against the White Sox and a horrible matchup against the Orioles. With a 12 percent walk rate, you’re playing with fire, but it’s possible he provides a lot of strikeouts against the White Sox. In his last three starts, Edwin Jackson has looked like vintage Jackson with a 2.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 21.3 percent walk rate and 8 percent walk rate. With starts against the Ryan Braun-less Brewers and the Mariners, Jackson is a great streaming option. Like most fantasy owners, Esmil Rogers conjures up memories of high ERAs and a lot of home runs allowed, but since joining the Blue Jays rotation he has been surprisingly good. In his last three starts against the Rangers twice and the Rockies, he has 2.04 ERA, 0.85 WHIP with a strikeout rate of 18.2 percent and has only walked four batters in 17.2 innings. Since joining the starting rotation, Rogers has learned a two-seam fastball/power sinker that’s allowing him to be extremely effective because it has heavy sink and excellent movement. If Rogers wasn’t facing the Red Sox, I would’ve ranked him higher, but this is someone you want to add right now in deeper leagues because I’m a believer.

Avoid

Rank

Name

Team

Opp.

ERA

K%

BB%

78

Francisco Liriano

PIT

MIL

2.44

27.0%

9.3%

79

Ian Kennedy

ARI

@ATL

5.21

20.0%

7.9%

80

Mike Leake

CIN

@TEX

2.64

17.0%

5.2%

81

Phil Hughes

NYY

TEX

5.09

20.7%

6.7%

82

Jacob Turner

MIA

SD

2.16

17.6%

9.8%

83

Alfredo Figaro

MIL

@PIT

3.88

18.5%

4.2%

84

Bud Norris

HOU

LAA

3.64

16.1%

7.4%

85

Brandon Cumpton

PIT

@SEA

3.60

18.6%

4.7%

86

Jose Quintana

CWS

CLE-2

3.86

17.3%

7.2%

87

Scott Feldman

CHC

@MIL

3.39

18.2%

7.1%

88

Aaron Harang

SEA

CHC

5.28

21.5%

3.4%

89

Jeremy Guthrie

KC

@MIN

4.20

11.1%

8.4%

90

Dan Haren

WSH

@NYM

5.72

17.8%

3.7%

91

John Lannan

PHI

@LAD

5.48

12.9%

3.5%

92

Joe Saunders

SEA

PIT

4.49

12.2%

7.3%

93

Kevin Correia

MIN

@MIA, KC

3.87

13.0%

3.5%

94

Shaun Marcum

NYM

@CWS

5.77

20.9%

5.9%

95

Nick Tepesch

TEX

CIN

4.84

16.3%

5.9%

96

Matt Moore

TB

TOR, DET

4.13

20.5%

11.9%

97

John Danks

CWS

NYM

5.40

17.5%

2.8%

98

Miguel Gonzalez

BAL

CLE

3.76

17.8%

7.9%

99

Tim Lincecum

SF

@LAD

4.52

22.9%

10.3%

100

Chad Gaudin

SF

@LAD

2.60

19.1%

8.4%

101

P.J. Walters

MIN

KC

3.22

13.2%

6.6%

Additional Information: The last time Matt Moore faced the Tigers he allowed six earned runs in two innings. After watching his last start, I’m passing on Moore unless I’m extremely desperate. The peripheral numbers suggest John Danks has been unlucky with the ERA, but after watching his last two starts I see little evidence of him turning this around. Since May 3, Mike Leake has been great, with a 1.81 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, but he’ll be pitching in one of the best ballparks in the league without a lot of miss-bat stuff against a team that is heating up.

Post By Matt Commins (51 Posts)

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