“It’s time to win,” Pittsburgh Pirates manager Derek Shelton told Kevin Gorman of TribLive. Despite beginning his sixth season as Pirates manager, that kind of urgency coming from Shelton was never evident before. That said, it’s fair to point out that we don’t know what he’s like with his players behind closed doors. Regardless of what his approach has been, all it’s yielded in five years is a 294-414 record and no finishes higher than fourth place in the National League Central Division.
Even so, in the offseason, little was done to improve upon a disappointing team that finished 76-86 and limped into last place in 2024. The 2025 Pirates’ hopes hang on internal improvement, coaching changes, a new sense of urgency, and an influx of young pitching talent scheduled to arrive later in the season.
Starting pitching
This area is the team’s strength. It’s led by Paul Skenes, the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Award finalist. The six-foot-six, 260-pound right-hander was 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in 2024. He struck out 170 of the 514 batters he faced. He’s added two new pitches this season, presumably to foil the two or three guys who could actually hit a fair ball off him last year.
The rotation was dealt a huge blow when another 2024 rookie sensation, Jared Jones, went down with elbow discomfort. He received good news in that he had no tendon damage and wouldn’t require surgery. However, he won’t throw for six weeks and will need to go through what amounts to another spring training. It may be July before he’s seen on a major league mound. Converted relief pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski will take his place.
Mitch Keller, the Pirates’ $77 million man, can dominate opposing lineups at times but needs more consistency. He’s a solid No. 2 man. Lefties Bailey Falter and new addition Andrew Heaney are serviceable back-of-the-rotation pieces who should benefit from PNC Park’s spacious left field. Top prospects Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler, and Tom Harrington, all right-handers, should be in Pirates uniforms by the All-Star break. If all pitch as advertised, the Pirates will have an embarrassment of riches among the starting staff.
The bullpen
Closer David Bednar, an All-Star in 2022 and 2023, regressed badly in 2024 when he registered a 3-8 record with 23 saves, a 5.77 ERA and seven blown saves. As I write this, Shelton hasn’t proclaimed Bednar – or anybody else – as the closer. The guess here is Bednar will begin the season as the closer but on a short leash. The seventh- and eighth-inning setup roles will likely be handled, and capably, by right-handers Colin Holderman and Dennis Santana and left-hander Ryan Borucki. The Pirates also added free agent lefties Caleb Ferguson and Tim Mayza and right-handed waiver claim Justin Lawrence. If the numbers they put up last year don’t dazzle, at least they have major league experience.
The catchers
Joey Bart, the No. 2 overall draft pick by the San Francisco Giants in 2018, was added in an early season trade last year. Bart gave the Pirates a career year, hitting .265/.337/.462, 13 HR and 45 RBI. He was often miscast as a cleanup hitter, but the lack of solid bats in the Pirates order wasn’t his fault. He might find himself hitting fourth or fifth to start this season as well.
Endy Rodríguez beat out Henry Davis, the 2021 No.1 overall pick, for the second catcher’s spot. The switch-hitting Rodríguez hit well in the spring and is a good defensive catcher. He may see action at first base, too. The Pirates still have high hopes for Davis. Regardless of whether Davis ever puts it together, the catching position is in good hands.
The infield
Last December, Spencer Horwitz was acquired from the Cleveland Guardians to play first base. His record shows a remarkable ability to get on base. He doesn’t seem to be the power hitter the Pirates need at that spot, however. In any event, an offseason wrist injury landed him on the injured list to start the season. In his place, the Pirates will likely use a rotation of Jared Triolo, Adam Frazier, and Rodríguez, which will be seriously lacking in punch.
Another issue the Pirates will face is the recurring back issues of Ke’Bryan Hayes. This caused Hayes to underperform to the tune of .233/.283/.290, 4 HR and 25 RBI in 2024. If he misses significant time in 2025, Triolo can slide over there and handle the job defensively. Hayes and Triolo have both won Gold Gloves.
With Nick Gonzales at second base and Isiah Kiner-Falefa at shortstop, it’s an infield that’s not likely to hit up to major league average standards.
The outfield/designated hitter
Most of the Pirates offense will come from here, even though Pirates fans found their favorite team’s biggest addition to the offense, Tommy Pham, to be offensive. Last year, Pham asked the St. Louis Cardinals to trade him to a contender. So far with the Pirates, he’s pushing players to be their best selves. However, if Pittsburgh falls out of contention, we’ll see how long Pham wants to stick around.
The Pirates will be solid in right field, where their best player, Bryan Reynolds, will roam. Last year, he hit .275/.344/.477, 24 HR and 88 RBI, leading the team in the latter two categories while making the NL All-Star Team. Center field will be occupied by converted shortstop and budding superstar Oneil Cruz. In 2024, Cruz hit .259/.324/.449, 21 HR and 76 RBI while stealing 22 bases. However, he’s shown himself to be a slow learner. How fast he adapts to the outfield will have much to say about the Pirates’ fortunes in 2025.
Designated hitter Andrew McCutchen, who might start a half-dozen or so games in the outfield this year, hit .232/.328/.411, 20 HR and 50 RBI in 2024. He was at his best last year when he batted leadoff, from which he produced a .343 OBP. It will be Pham, a player in decline who hit .248/.305/.368, 9 HR and 39 RBI in 2024, manning in the leadoff spot to start this season. Jack Suwinski, who led the team with 26 homers in 2023, had a good spring and made the final roster. If his good hitting continues, he’ll get significant playing time spelling Pham and “Cutch.”
Outlook
General manager Ben Cherington is a big believer in his processes. He’ll expect a couple of new additions, hitting coach Matt Hague and assistant pitching coach Brent Strom, to aid in getting improvement from the players. Strom will have some pitching talent to work with. It’s Hague who will have his work cut out for him. Hague is inheriting an offense that finished at or near the bottom of every important offensive category in 2024. As a team, the Pirates hit .234/.301/.371 and struck out 1,506 times.
Let’s compare this year’s lineup to last year’s. At first base, substitute Horwitz/Triolo/Frazier/Rodríguez for Rowdy Tellez/Connor Joe. In the outfield, substitute Pham for Edward Olivares/Joe/Bryan De La Cruz. Figure Kiner-Falefa essentially replaces last year’s center fielder, Michael A. Taylor. It’s not a lineup that’s been markedly improved. Hague will have to be a miracle worker to turn it into an offensive juggernaut. The Pirates’ starting pitching will prevent the 2025 season from being an embarrassing 100-loss season. However, it’s a team that can little afford prolonged injuries, and they’ve already been struck by the losses of Jones and Horwitz.
For 2025 to be a successful year, a number of “ifs” have to work out in their favor. If Mlodzinski adapts to a starting role. If every prospect pitcher who arrives in 2025 is successful right out of the gate. As noted, there are three such pitchers anticipated to arrive with the big club, but what are the odds all three won’t encounter any bumps in the road? If Hayes stays healthy. If Cruz takes to center field. Or if Gonzales, Hayes, Kiner-Falefa, Suwiski, and Triolo hit better than they hit last year.
Prediction
The frustrating part for Pirates fans is that the NL Central is so weak this year. If the schedule were like it was before 2023, when the Pirates played each division rival 18 times instead of just 13 times under the present system, their pitching might carry them to an 84-win season. Instead, I see 74 wins in 2025.
