When MLB made Statcast bat tracking data public in 2024, fans rushed to leaderboards, analysts began testing new models, and front offices quickly added the new metrics to their evaluation tools. Two years later, the excitement has settled, and the focus has shifted to a more important question: how much does bat tracking actually improve hitter projections?
The answer is quite a bit.
A New Layer of Information
Modern projection systems have always relied on traditional measures such as exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, and contact quality. Bat tracking adds another layer by showing what happens before the ball leaves the bat. Instead of only measuring results, analysts can now measure the swing itself.
The most widely discussed metric is bat speed. League average hitters typically sit around 71 or 72 mph, while elite power hitters often reach the upper 70s or beyond. Bat speed is strongly connected to raw power and maximum exit velocity, making it a useful indicator of a player’s offensive ceiling.
What makes the metric particularly valuable is its stability. A hitter can go through a slump while maintaining the same bat speed, suggesting the underlying skill remains intact. On the other hand, a noticeable decline in bat speed can signal fatigue, injury, or age related regression before those issues become obvious in traditional statistics.
Another metric attracting significant attention is squared up rate. Rather than focusing on how hard the ball was hit, it measures how efficiently a hitter converts bat speed into quality contact. This helps separate players who consistently barrel the ball from those whose results are driven by occasional hard contact.
Because squared up rate stabilizes relatively quickly, projection models can use it to identify trends earlier than they could with exit velocity alone. For teams making roster decisions, that extra information can be valuable.
For fans who enjoy comparing advanced metrics with game by game expectations, there is another interesting complementary resource, offered by a platform names Shurzy. The platform brings together publicly available baseball data into a single dashboard, allowing users to compare projections, probabilities, and performance trends in one place. While it is not a replacement for professional projection systems, it provides a useful public facing lens that helps contextualize many of the metrics discussed throughout modern baseball analysis. You can explore it at https://www.shurzy.com/.
From Analysis to Action
Projection systems have already adapted to these new inputs. Public models (such as ZiPS and PECOTA) began incorporating bat tracking metrics during the 2025 season. Rather than replacing existing methods, bat speed and squared up rate were added as additional indicators of future performance.
The impact has been most noticeable with younger hitters. Players with limited major league experience can now be evaluated using swing data that stabilizes faster than many traditional statistics. Teams can gain confidence in emerging talent sooner, which helps accelerate promotion and roster decisions.
The data is also influencing player development. Coaches regularly use bat speed, swing length, and attack angle to evaluate mechanical changes and measure progress. Because these metrics are tracked consistently, adjustments can be monitored with far greater precision than in previous years.
The Remaining Blind Spots
Still, bat tracking is not a complete solution. It cannot measure pitch recognition, decision making, or a hitter’s approach in different counts. A player may possess excellent bat speed but still struggle because he swings at poor pitches. Likewise, two strike situations often produce different swing characteristics that can complicate the interpretation of raw bat tracking numbers.
That limitation is important. The most successful analysts view bat tracking as another piece of the puzzle rather than a replacement for existing evaluation methods.
The 2026 season highlights just how quickly the sport has embraced this technology. Many young players now arrive in the majors with complete bat tracking histories from the minor leagues. This gives organizations far more information than they had only a few years ago. As a result, promotions, lineup decisions, and roster evaluations are happening faster and with greater confidence.
Bat tracking has not changed every aspect of player evaluation, but it has given teams a clearer view of the skills that drive offensive performance. In a sport where even small advantages matter, that added visibility is proving increasingly valuable.
